Posted on 01/11/2012 12:18:48 PM PST by katiedidit1
On its face, it looked like a great night Tuesday for Mitt Romney. He won a decisive victory in the New Hampshire GOP primary, defeating his rivals by more than fifteen points. Examining the CBS News poll of exiting voters, though, reveals a number of worrisome signs for Romney among core groups in the electorate, which if not reversed could spell trouble for him as the campaign progresses.
Republicans Don't Love Him
Candidate enthusiasm is a key antecedent of electoral success. Whichever nominee generates the most excitement among its base typically has an easier time getting their supporters to the polls and ultimately securing more votes. When President Obama won the presidential election in 2008, he had more than twice as many voters excited about him becoming president than his Republican counterpart John McCain.
At this point in the campaign, Republican voters are not thrilled with the idea of Romney becoming the Republican presidential nominee. Nearly a third of self-indentified Republicans in the New Hampshire GOP primary would be dissatisfied if he were fronting the ticket. Of the Republicans who are dissatisfied with them, 60 percent are fiscal conservatives who want lower taxes and reduced federal spending.
Full New Hampshire primary results New Hampshire Exit Poll Republican Primary Election Center
Tea Parties Can't Stand Him
(Excerpt) Read more at cbsnews.com ...
I still prefer the steady Santorum; he doesn’t seem to make gaffes, but many think he is a bore, which he is not. I can see Santorum, Gingrich, and Perry all being demolished in SC so that there is no non-Romney contender still standing.
I lived in MA during Mitt’s entire tenure as governor. He didn’t cut one penny out of the bloated, far left liberal budget [i.e.: the state has been dominated by corrupt lefties for many years, and their spending priorities are the basis for the state’s vast, unwieldy budget]. He jacked fees through the roof to pay for government waste, fraud, abuse and overall excess. He left the state in far worse fiscal shape than he found it.
Oh, and did I mention Romenycare? If the other 49 states [or is it 56?] weren’t footing around half the annual bill for that monstrosity, MA would have sunk under the weight its out-of-control spending long ago.
Mitt is an economic disaster. If he gets the chance to do for the US what he did for MA, we’re screwed.
I don’t think Romney would switch Parties; but he’s so left of center, to even refer to him as “Moderate” is a stretch.
Well, I will go fishing instead of voting for Myth Romney.
If there is a reasonable Constitution Party candidate or even the libertarian, I’d vote for that person.
I certainly won’t bundle like I have in the past. Myth will have to spend his own money.
I’d prefer Newt, but it’s not looking good. I’ll vote for Mitt. Anybody but Obama. We need to get behind the candidate (no one will ever be perfect) and WIN. Get Obama out.
I got back to CT at 4 a.m. from Manchester, NH. I should write an article and post it, but I’m not sure what to say .. here are a few points
1. It is an established fact that Romney is well-liked in eastern NH (2 counties), cities and ‘burbs. Santorum and Gingrich focused there (why?) and made no in-roads. Romney won many spots with over 50% of the vote.
2. Romney is despised in northern & western rural NH ... the other 8 counties which make up the other 50% of the vote. McCain killed him there in ‘08 and he did poorly yesterday. Newt and Santorum largely ignored much of this area due to logistics. Paul and Huntsman did very well, winning many towns. Romney managed to get over 30% in some maybe half of towns. Newt and Santorum did poorly due to a lack of presence ... lack of activity.
3. examples ... Jaffrey. 2nd largest town in Cheshire County (west). I showed up at 4pm at the polling station. ronPaul peeple running all over. 2 obambi campaigners ... 1 dedicated romneyite ... a Huntsman couple. I was the first to show for NEWT. Not even a sign planted in the ground. Nobody ever showed up for Santorum. (And that is the way it was every day during the past 4 weeks.)
Headed toward Peterborough (larger town, largest in western half of Hillsborough Cnty.) Again ... no sign of NEWT or RS. Somebody stuck a mitt sign in ground at 7 am and never came back. 2 Huntsman guys who described themselves as conservative GOP activists had been there all day.
ONE CONCLUSION: Much of the teaparty has faded away. Some was usurped by the romney organization. The rest joined ronPaul ... so there was not much left to start a Reaganite populist grassroots movement.
Huntsman got 2nd in Peterborough, 27%.
Mitt beat Paul in Jaffrey 34% to 29%.
The grassroots populists have divorced the GOP. So the Reagan wing cannot beat the GOP establishment under these circumstances. Reaganites need the grassroots to beat the establishment. ronpaul has sucked all the energy away.
No surprise that NG and RS limped in with 9.5% each. YOU CANNOT WIN A CAMPAIGN IF NOBODY IS CAMPAIGNING FOR YOU!
Excellent post. And thanks for your commitment and hard work, even if it was for the “wrong” conservative (I’m supporting Santorum).
Thank you for your efforts and the update campaignPete.
Great point: YOU CANNOT WIN A CAMPAIGN IF NOBODY IS CAMPAIGNING FOR YOU!
i put a lot of time in. but didn’t do much “work”. I gotta find a better role for myself. The staffers and the journalists seem clueless cuz they are bogged down at central headquarters ... never get out to see what is going on in the towns and never analyze the results.
In Hollis, Santorum filled up a “barn” at a sold event ... and people followed him around in the parking lot of the general store ... another 500 people. Yet, RS got 8% on primary day. Why? Why?
Hollis is right on the Mass border. How many of the “voters” were from MASS? Does that ever occur to them? Staff really not interested in the real details. How did Newt do in Windham ... the sight of his “historic town hall”?
Thank you for that description. I had heard nightmares from other folks in NH, too. It’s like Team Newt never really tried. You were his best soldier there!
I have good news for you, though. It appears that Newt HQs in South Carolina are OVERFLOWING with volunteers/helpers. He owns the most ad time there in EVERY medium, and has a MASSIVE statewide staff. I have lots of family there and two Freepers giving me updates, and they are feeling good vibes and telling good tales.
It is the opposite of the Iowa and NH reports I got: lots of enthusiasm, people now breaking for Newt, Many pastors urging pragmatism to stop Romney, many pastors outright enthused for Newt. Iowa was the opposite; I was being told people were breaking for Santorum and to expect the worst. You and others warned us that NH was lost. I can tell you boldly, though, that everything I am hearing about SC has been overwhelmingly positive.
A few other bits of good news there:
1.) Huntsman is concentrating on the coast, which is Establishment GOP and Romney’s stronghold. He is aiming to take directly from Mitt’s hyde.
2.) Upstate is heavy for Newt, HEAVY. Charleston ditto - Newt stuff EVERYWHERE, phone calls very responsive. Georgia border towns also heavy for Newt, and loaded with volunteers. Coast is obviously Mitt, but my Uncle tells me Newt is picking-up a lot of Romney haters there who have given up on Perry.
3.) Gun owners and orgs are getting the word out BIG TIME on Mitt. Many folks did not know the extent of his anti-gun record. This is not being reported strongly enough. I am being told in no uncertain terms that the gun issue is already having an effect.
4.) Bain is already the talk of the town. Some complaining about it being used by Newt, many agreeing with Newt. But it is all the buzz, which either way is bad for Mitt. Bain is a curse word in SC.
5.) For the first time, Newt is not the only one going after Mitt. Perry is on constant attack of Mitt, and Paul is finally turning his guns Romney’s way following NH. Perry and Newt camps seem to picking-up on the other’s talking points. It appears that the perceived team-up is more than just something coincidental; they are paying attention to each other’s Mitt attacks and running with them also.
6.) Santorum trying the positive route, but way behind in ground game. Will have some ad time, but among the least. He is struggling to get any endorsements in SC.
7.) Mitt is reducing his time in SC and focusing on FL. He’s not ceding SC by any means, but certainly not treating it like Iowa and NH.
8.) Don’t forget there are two debates in SC before the vote!!!
The Tea Party mindset is still very much alive. But they’re not going to go whole hog for someone like Romney. Instead, their efforts will be targeted toward local and state elections.
Romney’s going to have to sink or swim with establishment moderates and independents. Tea Party people are not going to knock themselves out for him.
Santorum 23,408
Gingrich 23,291
Perry 1,764
So, even though N.H. is a lot more liberal and had plenty of RAT crossovers, the rankings of the candidates going after the conservative vote are the same as they were in Iowa. Santorum does best, then Newt, and then way, way behind is Perry.
But regardless of the numbers nationally, Gingrich fans apparently far outnumber Santorum supporters here on FR. They want us to know that we can "beat Romney" if Santorum "drops out" and agrees to be the "running mate" of the guy who didn't make the top 3 in any state and hasn't won a single county yet (heck, at least Hillary could claim she had 48% of the RAT party delegates when she said the guy with 52% of the delegates should drop out and be her running mate)
And Perry... I'm not even going to make another joke at his expense. Too easy. But if you're a Perrybot and you think he's gonna win big any day now, I have a bridge to sell you.
This is simple, we all have three choices - don't vote, vote for Obama or vote for Mitt. We may not like it, but Mitt may be the only real option.
I was supporting Newt until he started this nonsense with Bain Capital. How dumb. Mitt's company puts money - private money - in a distressed company - not by force, but by invitation, and some win, some lose. If they lose, Bain and their investors lose their own money. Not only that, they were going to lose anyways! What company owner lets an investment banker take the majority interest in their company (or a large percentage) only to squander the value. They invite the investor and their money in to fix the thing, not ruin it! Yes, sometimes unprofitable segments are shut down to save the rest. I know the liberals would prefer it all be like the post office - see how that worked out!
This type of capitalism is what this Country is all about. BTW, Bain happened to win backing Staples who employs 90,000 today.
Compare with Obama, who takes taxpayer money and plays the same game (Solyndra) with far less success - primarily to pay back his bundlers. Any you all want Obama to get another 4 years!
Maybe we'll get lucky and the South will give life back to Santorum or Perry, but don't count on it. Whoever wins, we have to support them or risk 4 more years of Obama.
“Mitt may be the only real option.”
B/S..... Romney is NOT an option!
If you bailed on Newt over Bain Capital, then you were never really for him anyway.
If Romney gets the nomination, Obama immediately wins the election, period.
GO NEWT GO.......
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2832048/posts
Gist of article - Tea Party doesn’t like Romney - focusing on U.S. Senate
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.