2012 Iowa Caucus Live Thread

Iowa GOP ^ | 1.3.12 | Free Vulcan

[Free Vulcan]

Live thread to cover today's GOP caucus. News, predictions, opinions, totals, and the like.

Will be heading out about 4 pm or so to get our site ready and do a final review with the precinct chairs. I expect it to be bigger than 2008 with very heavy turnout and we are preparing for that.

We are also ready for disruptions. They simply won't be tolerated. The state party sent us a memo saying if there's any trouble call the cops immediately. Anyone trying to cause problems is going to get a rude awakening.

My predictions of the outcome are a narrow field with about a 10 point spread for the top five with Bachmann far behind in single digits:

Santorum - 24 Romney - 22 Paul - 20 Perry - 17 Gingrich - 14 Bachmann - 4 The Rest - 1

Think things are still in flux and many won't decide till right to the wire, so I'm not terribly confident of any predictions.

[BunnySlippers]

Thank you for the links.

[SamAdams76]

FoxNews just reported that entrance polls show that Romney, Paul and Santorum are likely to finish in the top three. Gingrich, Bachmann and Huntsman are not likely to place in the top three.

[Irish Eyes]

FoxNews just reported that entrance polls show that Romney, Paul and Santorum are likely to finish in the top three. Gingrich, Bachmann and Huntsman are not likely to place in the top three.

Ah... you missed one.

;)

[Sola Veritas]

I don’t have a clue how it will come out. I doubt I will like it.

However, if I could have a wish it would be that neither Romney or Paul win either 1rst or 2nd Place.

Let Santorum have his day in the sun and come in first with another in 2nd (other than Paul or Romney). It will be the last thing he win (which is a shame because he is a good man)

The caucus in Iowa has become a joke. So, the winner is not important except for perception and bragging rights. New Hampshire is alread Romney’s - so it is also meaningless.

South Carolina is the real beginning of the primaries. There I hope Newt does well. I would actually like to see a Newt/Santorum GOP ticket for the general election.

[Kenny]

I can’t stand it. Who the hell are these people supporting Romney & Paul? I just want to run out in the street screaming “I’m mad as hell and I’m not going to take it anymore!”

Little over the top I guess :-)

[ez]

If I gotta choose Mitt or Paul, I hope Paul takes it and makes the whole deal look “tainted.”

[BigEdLB]

Urbandale caucus will have Santorum’s wife speaking on his behalf.... Look for a win in that precinct.

[Proudcongal]

What kind of republican votes for Romney? If Obama switched to the republican party, these morons would vote for him because he has an R by his name.

[Kenny]

If I gotta choose Mitt or Paul, I hope Paul takes it and makes the whole deal look “tainted.”

Reminds me a lot of the Obama or Clinton gig. Choose your devil but neither's worth a damn.

[Irish Eyes]

I can’t stand it. Who the hell are these people supporting Romney & Paul? I just want to run out in the street screaming “I’m mad as hell and I’m not going to take it anymore!”

Little over the top I guess :-)

Nope..don't think so.

[Boston Blackie]

I just want to run out in the street screaming “I’m mad as hell and I’m not going to take it anymore!”

Watch it! You'll end up in Gitmo.

[MissTed]

What kind of republican votes for Romney?

The same ones that re-elected McCain. *eye twitch*

[RitaOK]

Amen. And thank you for the prayer. We needed a prayer and it came right on time. I will try to live up to it as I converse tonight and will.... TRY......to keep my big mouth shut if I should lose it. LOL. %:0

[RedMDer]

Click!

http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/home/daily/site_090711/content/01125111.guest.html
With Freedom Under Assault, We're Told We Must Moderate?
Moderation is not a substantive belief. This is my problem with moderates. There isn't a core there! Moderation is a tactic. It's not a set of principles. It is a tactic that says, "Regardless of the situation, regardless of events, my first impulse is to find a different way around." I know moderation, per se, is illogical because there are clearly times when it is self-destructive or counterproductive. For instance, moderation after we were attacked at Pearl Harbor would have been irrational. Moderation against slavery would have been immoral. How do you debate the issue of moderation if it has no core? You wind up debating tactics, but tactics without principle are pointless -- and this has always been my problem with moderates. ...

Particularly in the face of the most radical and destructive administration in modern American history, where the president has said he wants to fundamentally transform the nation, what does moderation look like? Where am I supposed to moderate? What am I supposed to moderate? Are all these Republican candidates tonight at the debate be asking themselves, "Who's willing to go further in compromising with the Democrats?" To show what? To accomplish what? Isn't the purpose of this debate tonight for one of these people to stand head and shoulders above everybody else in demonstrating he or she is the one who can beat Obama?
Republican moderates are guaranteed losers in eight out of ten elections you're gonna have. Now, I think that people who write pieces about "moderation" need to do a little bit more than just sit back and be critical. We need to know what it is these moderates think is worth fighting for. Is it just winning elections with whoever can win so that the result may not even be productive? These moderates need to tell us what are the principles that they believe that an individual or a nation should stand firm on, because, so far, moderates don't do that. That's why they are moderates! They don't want to be tied down. They want to be able to preach moderation because it gets them praise.

[BigEdLB]

Santorum’s wife right now in Urbandale

[Deo volente]

My choices:

1) Santorum
2) Anybody but Mitt

[Rational Thought]

Stream of IOWA caucus proceedings from Ames, IA.

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/breitbarttv

[johnthebaptistmoore]

Or, in a remake of Network.

[Salvation]

Thanks, I was looking for this earlier.

[parksstp]

CNN Entrance Poll:

Paul: 24% Romney: 24% Santorum: 18% Gingrich 13% Perry 11%
Bachmnan: 7%

What I feared. Michele took Santorum’s spot, Perry bumped down to what I had predicted for Bachmann and Gingrich bumped down to what I had for Perry. Romney’s 24% is what I expected.

Santorum is getting a plurality of the evangelical, but not enough of it. I need to see the numbers on Paul to see if the caucus is being manipulated.

Here’s my file. If you notice on the second tab, I have the names wrong, but I think the vote totals/percentages could be good:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AhY4oeNgAv_ldGhyMDgyc01IUEw0a1V4WjJJSjIySVE&hl=en_US