Outward Bound New Yorkers (Where most of them went in the past 10 years)

Empire Center for New York State Policy ^ | 10/03/2011 | E.J. McMahon and Robert Scardamalia

[SeekAndFind]

As the exodus of taxpayers from the Empire State¹ continued during the past decade, which other states gained the most at New York’s expense? And how were migration patterns affected by changing economic conditions?

 

This paper, second in a series on New York population trends, uses the latest available Internal Revenue Service (IRS) data to answer those questions.  Our key findings include the following:

• Between 2000 and 2009, nearly 60 percent of the New York out-migrants moved to southern states—with Florida alone drawing nearly one-third of the total. Thirty percent moved to New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Connecticut.
• Migration slowed after real estate values peaked in 2006 and dropped very sharply after the recession began in 2007. Florida accounted for 35 percent of New York’s net migration loss in 2005—but by 2009, its share had dropped to 11 percent. That year, for the first time on record, New York lost more residents to North Carolinathan to Florida.
• Taxpayers who left New York State had average incomes 22 percent higher than those moving into New York in the most recent year for which data are available.

 

 

 

Taxpayer Migration

 

The IRS records the movement of taxpayers and their dependents, based on year-to-year changes in the addresses shown on individual tax returns.  While this excludes persons who don’t file tax returns in the year before or after they move, it measures about 90 percent of migration counted by the U.S. Census.²

 

As shown in Table 1, nearly 1.2 million taxpayers and their dependents moved from New York to other states between 2000 and 2009. Florida was the most common destination, followed by New Jersey, Pennsylvania and North Carolina, in that order. However, as the economy slowed in the second half of the decade, so did migration.

 

The drop in net moves from New York to Florida was especially large. In 2005, with migration at its peak, the IRS data indicated New York lost nearly four residents to Florida for every Floridian who moved in the reverse direction. Four years later, in the depths of a recession that was especially severe in the Sunshine State, the number of New Yorkers moving to Florida had dropped by more than half (from 85,619 to 41,371). Meanwhile, the number of Floridians moving to New York increased by 45 percent (from 23,019 to 33,345), reducing the outmigration ratio to 1.24 out-migrants for every in-migrant. By 2009, New York’s net migration loss to North Carolina was larger than its loss to Florida for the first time on record.

 

As shown in Table 2, the migration pattern to other states was not uniform among different New York regions. While just over half the net migration flow from the New York City metropolitan region was headed South, nearly 40 percent of the taxpayers lost by that region moved to other states in the northeast, mainly neighboring New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Connecticut.  The net migration flow from upstate regions overwhelmingly favored the South and West, with fewer headed to New York’s neighbors. This tendency was most pronounced in the Albany region, which lost taxpayers almost entirely to the South and West.

 

 

Taxpayer moves within New York

 

As detailed in Table 3, the migration of taxpayers and their dependents within New York City reflects long-standing population flows from Manhattan to outer boroughs, from Brooklyn to Staten Island, and from all five boroughs—especially Queens—to suburban counties.  Roughly 94 percent of the intrastate New York taxpayer-migrants from New York City stayed within the region, moving to either Long Island or the lower Hudson Valley.

 

New York City also lost a net 16,182 taxpayer-migrants to upstate New York regions, and 566,037 taxpayer-migrants to other states. The New York City region as a whole, including the suburban counties, lost 92,630 taxpayers and their dependents to upstate New York, which in turn lost 491,890 taxpayer-migrants to the rest of the country.  The region-by-region breakdown is shown in Table 3a.

 

Moving Money

 

The IRS data also provide adjusted gross incomes for migrating individuals and households in the year they move. Measured on this basis, migrants from New York had incomes about $3.3 billion higher than migrants to New York in 2009, down from a peak of $5.3 billion for migrants in 2005.

 

 

As shown in Table 4, below, New York’s annual net income losses from 2000 through 2009 totaled nearly $37 billion. Incomes change over time, so this does not necessarily mean New York was $37 billion worse off at the end of the period than it would have been if no moves had occurred during this period. At the very least, however, the average incomes of migrating taxpayers reflect New York’s ongoing loss of earning power – and, in many cases, job skills -- to other states.

 

 

From 2001 to 2009, New York State’s greatest annual net income losses, like its greatest population losses, were to Florida and New Jersey, in that order.  But Connecticut, the sixth most popular destination state for net migration of individual New Yorkers, ranked third in its net income gain from New York. Conversely, Pennsylvania ranks third in the number of people gained at New York’s expense, but fifth in its net income gain from migrating New Yorkers.

 

Incomes In, Incomes Out

 

The average adjusted gross income of taxpaying households leaving New York between 2008 and 2009 was $58,899, while the average income of households moving into New York was $48,432—a difference of 22 percent.  Non-migrating New York households as of 2009 had an average income of $63,630.

 

A county-by-county breakdown of average incomes for interstate migrants to and from New York is presented in Table 5 on page 7.   As shown, in 16 of New York’s 62 counties, the average income differential was the reverse of the statewide average; i.e., in these counties, the average incomes of in-migrants from other states were roughly equivalent to or exceeded the average incomes of out-migrants to other states.   Higher or roughly equivalent in-migrant incomes were concentrated in less populous, rural upstate counties. 

 

The average income differentials for out-migrants matched or exceeded the statewide average in New York City, Long Island and the lower Hudson Valley suburbs, as well as in all of the most urbanized and populous upstate counties (except for Onondaga County, which includes Syracuse).  The largest differential in absolute terms was in New York County (the borough of Manhattan), where the average out-migrant income of $98,637 was 36 percent higher than the in-migrant average of $72,293.   The percentage differentials between out-migrants and in-migrants were even higher in the rest of the city.

 

Turning to a state-level comparison, as detailed in Table 6 on page 8, migrants from New York had higher average incomes than migrants to New York in 42 out of 50 states between 2008 and 2009.  New Yorkers migrating to New Jersey, the most common destination state, had incomes $10,579 higher than the smaller number making the reverse move.  The differential was $23,751 among New York migrants to and from Connecticut, which also attracted the most affluent New Yorkers, on average.

 

The average income data for migrants to and from New York reflect the same pattern as the aggregate income and population data: southeastern states, and neighboring Connecticut and New Jersey, have been the biggest net beneficiaries of the Empire State’s losses—which can be traced largely to the New York City metropolitan region. 

 

As detailed in Table 6 on page 8, the IRS data show that 177,505 federal tax returns were filed by former New Yorkers who had moved to other states in 2009, and 148,733 returns were filed by households that moved into New York from other states that year.

 

 

 

---

Endnotes:

¹E.J. McMahon and Robert Scardamalia, “Empire State’s Half-Century Exodus: A Population Migration Overview,” Empire Center Research Bulletin, No. 6.1, August 2011.

²For further background on how the Census Bureau computes migration for its American Community Survey, see Thibaudeau, Yves (2001), “Can We Ignore the Migration of Income Tax Non-Filers When Benchmarking the American Community Survey’s County Estimates?” U.S. Census Bureau, at www.fcsm.gov/01papers/Thibaudeau.pdf

[cuban leaf]

So, the bumper sticker is right:

Florida - Where America goes to die.

[freedumb2003]

I would love to see the same analysis for California. After being born and led my entire life there I am moving to Texas.

I note a lot of outflow to PA — a non-income tax state. People will vote with their feet and wallets, no matter how NY and CA would like to believe otherwise.

[from occupied ga]

which other states gained the most at New York’s expense

I wouldn't call getting a load of New Yorkers a gain. These are the people who vote for liberal politicians, think liberal, act liberal, approve of liberal policies, and then wonder why their taxes go through the roof and their incomes go into the toilet. They sh!t where they ate and then moved on to ruin new places like Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina. (You can't ruin New Jersey and Pennsylvania)

[from occupied ga]

which other states gained the most at New York’s expense

I wouldn't call getting a load of New Yorkers a gain. These are the people who vote for liberal politicians, think liberal, act liberal, approve of liberal policies, and then wonder why their taxes go through the roof and their incomes go into the toilet. They sh!t where they ate and then moved on to ruin new places like Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina. (You can't ruin New Jersey and Pennsylvania)

[Lazlo in PA]

Yeah. We got a ton of New Yorkers here in Eastern PA over the last ten years. Long Island accents and stupid liberal mentality. Luckily they don’t blend in so you can pick ‘em out easily.

[cripplecreek]

The way I look at the outflow from Michigan is that its providing an opportunity to fix things. Sure we have one less congressional seat overall but we picked up two GOP seats as well as seized rock solid control of state government. Even John Conyers is going to be forced into a fight to keep his seat.

Cutting some 30,000 college kids off foodstamps and imposing limits on welfare will drive quite a few more out of the state as well.

Those of us with “sticktoitiveness” will be ready to make some money as things get better.

[kabar]

Florida—God’s waiting room

[Buckeye McFrog]

I note a lot of outflow to PA — a non-income tax state.

Not true. PA does have a State Income Tax, currently pegged at around 3%. Our advantage though is that our State Constitution prohibits making it "progressive". You pay the same flat tax whether you make $10,000 per year or $30 million. Where you get screwed here is by your local yocals.

[detective]

It would be nice to see this by age and income. Most young people leave New York because there are few jobs and opportunities for achievement. Many people leave when they retire to find an area with a better quality of life.

The study doesn't include Porto Ricans, Dominicans and others from outside the 50 states. That would also be interesting to see.

[freedumb2003]

Someone had the kindness to correct me and the class to do it privately.

PA does have an income tax (I wonder where I got the idea they didn’t? Probably because I worked there and they didn’t tax me for some reason).

It is pretty low — 3.07% flat from what I could find using mt Google-fu.

I stand corrected and I earned something today!!

[SeekAndFind]

New York State is NOT losing population though.

Immigrants still come to New York ( a lot from Asia ) to replace those who have left.

For those who want to know how Taiwan, Hongkong or Korea looks like, just come to Flushing, NY in the borroagh of Queens. You ‘ll be hard pressed to find a Caucasian there.

[manc]

one good came out of the slower economy. Less yankee liberals moved south and to my state. Now if only those same yankee liberals would move back to NY, MA, RI, PA, CT, NJ, MD, ME, VT,OH

[freedumb2003]

>>Most young people leave New York because there are few jobs and opportunities for achievement. Many people leave when they retire to find an area with a better quality of life.<<

One of the charts appeared to list by net income inflow/outflow and, if I read it right, there has been a $36 Billion dollar outflow — so it looks like the income is leaving as well, not just the job seekers.

[manc]

nail on head

The slow economy stopped many of them coming down here now I hope those who bought houses down here and are yankee liberals move back up north to the hell hole they first created due to their ignorant voting ways

[GodBlessUSA]

I live in NY. I am NOT a liberal with a Long Island accent. I'm sure many who are moving out of NY are like my family. Conservatives or republicans wanting to get out of the never ending taxes and liberal rat policies. Suffolk County, Long Island was a republican strong hold when I grew up. My family and I are contemplating moving. We worry from hearing stories from others about how some people in other states treat New Yorkers poorly. Narrow-minded would do this.

There are a lot of liberal states out there with Conservatives and Republicans living in them. Not just NY. To put everyone in NY in the category as liberal is so very wrong!

[freedumb2003]

I corrected myself upthread :)

[SeekAndFind]

What makes PA different from NY is this -— PA’s greenies are not as strong as those in NY.

Your natural gas industry is flourishing with thousands upon thousands of jobs being added due to allowing hydrofracking on your side of the Marcellus Shale.

We here in NY on the other hand are still waiting for approval. We’ve studied the issue to death and found it to be quite safe ( heck PA, already proved it ). But guess what is being proposed? You guessed it — ANOTHER ENVIRONMENTAL STUDY!!

[Safetgiver]

I note a lot of outflow to PA — a non-income tax state....Ahem. You are wrong about that. We have an income tax and the highest gas tax, etc. you can find. And yes, we have a “non-income” tax. If you and your wife (or kids or your goat) have a shared checking account, savings account or IRA, the state takes 30% shortly after they bury her, you or kids.

[Iron Munro]

Registered communists, socialists, and democrats moving from the northeast to other states should not be allowed to vote in state elections for at least ten years, if ever. It’s the same thing as allowing people with a communicable disease to relocate and infect the host population.

/sarcasm off