Nasa refines satellite crash time ('out-of-control' climate satellite crash Pool anyone?)

BBC.co.uk ^ | 9/22/11 | Paul Rincon - BBC News

[NormsRevenge]

The US space agency (Nasa) says that its out-of-control climate satellite is expected to crash to Earth sometime on Friday evening (GMT).

There is still much uncertainty over when and where the satellite will re-enter the atmosphere.

Experts say they will get a more precise idea in the last 12 hours before the satellite is due to return.

The US space agency says the risk to life from the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) is 1 in 3,200.

Satellite and space expert Dr Stuart Eves stressed the large uncertainties involved in tracking the "decay" of satellite orbits (their slow fall back into the Earth's atmosphere).

Using the most recent determination of UARS' orbit - taken in the early hours of this morning - Dr Eves and a colleague have come up with their own projections of the satellite's final descent. But he explained that a spacecraft's orbit lifetime could only be estimated to about 10% accuracy.

This translates to a six-hour window either side of the expected decay which, based on a range of probabilities, would see the spacecraft splash down in the Southern Ocean.

[Jack Hydrazine]

The FR betting pool has this list of potential targets so far.

The White Hut
Mecca
Achmedinjad’s place
Either of Al Gore’s houses
Syria

Feel free to add to the list!

[ZGuy]

The Southern Ocean was designated an an official ocean in 2000.

[DManA]

Experts say they will get a more precise idea in the last 12 hours before the satellite is due to return, and a precise location within 1 hour after it hits.

[KarlInOhio]

Where is the “Southern Ocean”?

Neo-confederate penguins in Antartica seceded and formed their own ocean. It is most well known as the site of Animal Planet's "reality" show Hippies Failling Badly™.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southern_Ocean

Geographers disagree on the Southern Ocean's northern boundary or even its existence, with some considering the waters part of the South Pacific, South Atlantic, and Indian Oceans instead.

[Retired Greyhound]

Has anyone bid on The Pacific Ocean yet?

[pallis]

That’s about like drawing four of a kind, isn’t it?

My pick for touchdown is Roswell, NM.

[WellyP]

Looks like N.Korea, S. E. China or may be parts of Siberia have a bullseyes on it!

[GOPJ]

Thanks - I had no idea...

[agere_contra]

LOL, you win at statistics!

[hoagy62]

Here are 4 screen captures of the UARS orbit track done on my 'Orbitron' program.

This one is for the orbit starting in Mid-Pacific at 1:30pm Eastern...

[hoagy62]

This is the orbit starting in Mid-Pacific at 3:20pm Eastern...

[hoagy62]

This is the orbit starting Mid-Pacific at 5:05pm Eastern...

[WellyP]

A N. Korea hit would be just PERFECT! Odds, Odds?

[hoagy62]

And here is the orbit track starting Mid-Pacific at 6:45pm Eastern...

These are the tracks for tomorrow afternoon/early evening after noon Eastern time. IF NASA is correct in when they expect it it to come down, it'll be from one of these 4 tracks.

[getmeouttaPalmBeachCounty_FL]

Col. Mustard with satellite debris in the South American mountains.

[kidd]

Fukushima.

It has to be.

[OldMissileer]

Just don't get hit by that darned toilet seat!

[Dr. Bogus Pachysandra]

“17,000 miles per hour isn’t exactly slow.”

Kinda like a floater, spiraling around the bowl. Moving quick, but not movin’ down too fast.

Why didn’t we blow it up? Missile shot?

[Red Badger]

It would create more projectiles that would endanger other satellites and the ISS....................

[UCANSEE2]

Thanks for clarifying that for everyone else. What I LEFT OUT in my earlier post was that it would be mostly over the oceans and Russia during the ESTIMATED RE-ENTRY PERIOD.

I realized I had left that out, and was mis-communicating when FR went dead. I just got back on, so I am now responding.