Posted on 08/30/2011 12:07:30 PM PDT by Sgt_Schultze
Never-Wrong Pundit Picks Obama to Win in 2012
By Paul Bedard , Lauren Fox
Posted: August 30, 2011 Print
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Allan Lichtman, the American University professor whose election formula has correctly called every president since Ronald Reagan’s 1984 re-election, has a belated birthday present for Barack Obama: Rest easy, your re-election is in the bag.
“Even if I am being conservative, I don’t see how Obama can lose,” says Lichtman, the brains behind The Keys to the White House.
Lichtman’s prediction helps to explain a quirk in some polling that finds that while Americans disapprove of the president, they still think he will win re-election
(Excerpt) Read more at usnews.com ...
The only way I can see it happening is if it’s a three way race. And I fear there is a pretty good chance of that happening. There is so much anger at the banks and at Wall Street out there which has not been addressed by either party. This is tailor-made setup for some populist demagogue with money out there.
Lichtman picked Reagan to beat Mondale in 1984? The guy certainly is brilliant!
To: Carbonsteel
“... a quirk in some polling that finds that while Americans disapprove of the president, they still think he will win re-election.”
The government-dependent’s and the parasites’ self-interest coupled with the vast tide of moderate, independent, and liberal whites’ affirmative-action-motivated pity-votes?
How did he calculate 1992? Perot was a wild card that siphoned off votes from Bush mostly. And took 17% total. And Clinton won by default, with a princely 43% of the vote. Not that Bush’s 35.5% was stellar. But figuring in unhappy repubs voting for a fringe candidate, in my estimation without Perot, Bush would have taken Clinton in a squeaker. 1996 was a no-brainer for Clinton. I think this guy is lucky with his predictions, not good. Agree with 2000. How could you predict essentially a tie vote?
The Progressives have already made sure that voter fraud will happen....again.
Perot took care of that...
This tale is not remotely newsworthy. Just an opportunity for MSM to find a positive spin. Proves just how desperate the MSM is that they run something as absurd as this. A fortune teller with a cardboard box on the Bowery could do as well.
Normally I would agree with that. But throw in the guaranteed Black vote and the unemployment number may not be as strong an indicator as in the past. And if they can crank out 100% plus turnout in those areas, the Republican candidate will have to have at least a 5-6% lead going into election day. There is only so much fraud the Dems can carry out without raising red flags to even the most dense.
Right and what about 1980? Was he not in the biz or did he erroneously predict Carter?
If so, this is about the most analogous situation with a completely failed lib running against a conservative (we think) so he will be wrong AGAIN!
Exactly!
I guess we’re lucky Ron Paul always sticks to the GOP and doesn’t go full frontal Libertarian and run third party.
That would suck votes from the Right even though a bigger and bigger proportion of his support comes from dope smoking lefties because they like his pacifism and libertarianism.
Of course that Consumer Reports dude could jump in and attack from the Left.
Very misleading title.
His prediction in November, 2003: “But if the economy recovers and jobs come back, then barring any terrible catastrophe abroad, George Bush is going to be re-elected.”
In 2000, he predicted Gore winning. He scores this as being correct because Gore won the popular vote.
In other words, since 1988, he has never predicted a Democrat loss.
We said that about the Clintonistas. :(
... and he had predicted Gore in a landslide.
Every voted needs to be verified as a legal vote.
Nope. He predicted Gore would win in an epic landslide. He counts that as accurate, because “Gore won the popular vote.”
Never gonna happen (thank the Lord!) I might put Michigan in the 'maybe' category considering Detroit's new mayor and the tensions in the labor movement between actual laborers and government employees. It's obvious Wisconsin is tired of the Dems, and the Rust Belt may be ready for real reform.
Until the DUI story came out the Thursday before the election, Gore’s prospects looked pretty poor. That story (hyped to the max by the MSM) is said to have caused 4 million evangelicals to refrain from voting for Bush (for something he had done 24 years earlier).
He called Reagan 1984....meaning he missed the 1980 election? I believe this is an example of omission. I find it interesting that his first “right” call was no doubt after his “wrong” call of Carter/ Reagan. Carter didn’t have a scandal either...and he was well thought of personally. BUt his wrong track/right track was very similar to how Obama is going
Heck, even I corectly called all four of those elections. I will call the next one as soon as I know who is running, and so can anyone else with a brain.
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