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Posted on 08/20/2011 4:22:03 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Tropical Storm Irene has developed from Invest 97 in the Western Atlantic Ocean, east of the Leeward Islands.
Buoy Data:
Caribbean Sea
Florida
What do the ponies do during a hurricane?!
The big question on the ultimate impact seems to be on when it starts bending east now. It seems, in the past, that the bigger storms turn more slowly, especially when they are large and deep. I wouldn’t count out at least major surf and beach impact from Florida to the Carolinas. I know I would be preparing, at least preliminarily, anywhere on the East Coast.
What all wild animals do during a hurricane. They’ll get checked on after the fact.
One of the theories of how they wound up on Assateague is that they were on a Spanish galleon that broke up at sea during a hurricane.
Do they usually do ok? (curious—I guess they must mostly survive or there wouldn’t be any by now). It’s on my bucket list, ever since I saw that crazy movie as a small child.
Thank you for these updates. My daughter and I are supposed to be in Fayetteville, NC this weekend. I’m waiting for the hostesses to confirm or cancel.
They’ll be fine. Most likely they will head for the woods. Then when it is safe to do so they will be checked up on.
I finally saw the movie a couple of years ago, I do not recommend it to anyone who is familiar with the story from the original book. It’s cute movie, but barely resembles the book at all. I read the book when I was in the 1st or 2nd grade.........and that was more years ago than I care to remember :)
First time I went was 1986. My then husband was an ad rep for a local TV station and so we hung out with the camera crew. didn’t go again until 2002, the year before we moved here. Now when we go we do it on Friday to watch them swim back and do it from a boat - it’s really cool!
Yep and 2 other GFDL model interpolations bring it on top of NYC also.
One good thing, most wind speed projections drop it to a high Cat 1 or low Cat 2 by then, but they add that wind speed projections are not that good this far out.
Who is in a boat? You or the ponies? Enquiring minds want to know.
Thanks, both of you- The Kid & are doing well, and I’m gathering chainsaw gas and other stuff, just in case.
I can’t wrap my brain around Big Apple residents dealing with a hurricane.
Very glad to hear you are doing well these days and The Kid is taking good care of you. Thanks so much for the props and posting such nice things about the hurricane thread on Free Dominion. I’m tickled to see you back here again!
Meanwhile, we have an update -- track seems to be roughly on prediction at this point (but it hasn't started the turn north):
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 120 MPH...[snip] IRENE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND IRENE COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE BY THURSDAY.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES.
We are, not the ponies - silly goose!!!!!
My dad, who now lives in Sarasota, called me this morning to check on us after the earthquake. He called unusually early because he couldn’t get through to me yesterday. Too funny. I explained I was more worried about Irene than the shaking, which was weird, but not anything to write (or call) home about.
Two positions I’m watching for, compared to the projected track:
[1] Does the eye pass east or west of Governor’s Harbor, Bahamas? Right now the projection is ‘barely east of there’ at 7am thursday.
[2] Is the motion NNW or NNE as Irene parallels Daytona Beach (29.2°N, currently 7am Friday)? If the motion is exactly due north, it’s on track. If NNE, it will likely miss the Outer Banks. If NNW, then it’s turning more slowly than projected and we could get a Carolina landfall.
My current golden (Pauli) does not mind storms, praise the good Lord! She will sleep thru whatever comes our way. Wishing you and The Kid an unventful *event*. But I am saving that page, because I have a feeling we may see more storms this year. We can’t stay lucky here in S. FL forever. Wilma taught me that!
The population density is ridiculous and I can see preparation not happening quick enough.
We know what's going to happen in South Louisiana (rural) and it still is a mad rush to get it done in time, can't imagine the problem multiplied by millions with people who haven't been through it and don't know what to expect.
Waiting to *luck-out* don't get it sometimes.
Wow, getting down there compared to last night.
Just saw a report saying the waters are warmer than normal up the east coast and no significant shear is expected......Not good.
Looks like Irene will still be Category 2 off the So. Jersey coast. I would point out to Mr. Ed Koch that the dirty side of the storm gets to add forward speed to the sustained winds. In the case of LI, communities immediately to the right of the hurricane’s eye could get ~75 to 110 mph winds + forward speed ~20-30mph = 95-140 mph effective winds, plus storm surge. Yikes.
Good position landmarks to follow. Please keep us posted.
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