Meanwhile, we have an update -- track seems to be roughly on prediction at this point (but it hasn't started the turn north):
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 120 MPH...[snip] IRENE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND IRENE COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE BY THURSDAY.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES.
Two positions I’m watching for, compared to the projected track:
[1] Does the eye pass east or west of Governor’s Harbor, Bahamas? Right now the projection is ‘barely east of there’ at 7am thursday.
[2] Is the motion NNW or NNE as Irene parallels Daytona Beach (29.2°N, currently 7am Friday)? If the motion is exactly due north, it’s on track. If NNE, it will likely miss the Outer Banks. If NNW, then it’s turning more slowly than projected and we could get a Carolina landfall.
Wow, getting down there compared to last night.
Just saw a report saying the waters are warmer than normal up the east coast and no significant shear is expected......Not good.
Looks like Irene will still be Category 2 off the So. Jersey coast. I would point out to Mr. Ed Koch that the dirty side of the storm gets to add forward speed to the sustained winds. In the case of LI, communities immediately to the right of the hurricane’s eye could get ~75 to 110 mph winds + forward speed ~20-30mph = 95-140 mph effective winds, plus storm surge. Yikes.