Two positions I’m watching for, compared to the projected track:
[1] Does the eye pass east or west of Governor’s Harbor, Bahamas? Right now the projection is ‘barely east of there’ at 7am thursday.
[2] Is the motion NNW or NNE as Irene parallels Daytona Beach (29.2°N, currently 7am Friday)? If the motion is exactly due north, it’s on track. If NNE, it will likely miss the Outer Banks. If NNW, then it’s turning more slowly than projected and we could get a Carolina landfall.
Good position landmarks to follow. Please keep us posted.