Posted on 12/10/2010 5:21:12 AM PST by Clintonfatigued
Every year, I look back and nominate a number of politicians, campaigns and politically related entities as the “best,” “worst” or even “weirdest” of the cycle. I’m doing it again this year, because — let’s be honest — it’s a way of combining political analysis with personal animosity.
(Excerpt) Read more at rollcall.com ...
Better Start Worrying About 2012 Already
• Rep.-elect Blake Farenthold (R-Texas)
• Rep. Larry Kissell (D-N.C.)
• Rep-elect Bob Gibbs (R-Ohio)
• Rep.-elect Charlie Bass (R-N.H.)
• Rep.-elect Tom Marino (R-Pa.)
Farenthold and Bass are in tough districts, and they are likely to draw serious opponents next year. Gibbs and Kissell ran unimpressive races. Gibbs caught the wave (but may get help from redistricting), while Kissell had a weak opponent. That leaves Marino, who shouldn’t take his re-election for granted, even in this very Republican district. Even Republicans acknowledge that he is so damaged that he probably will draw a credible primary opponent.
Farenthold would probably be set if he had a Hispanic surname. As it is, the district has Cook PVI of R+2 and Obama skewed that winning by 7 points in 2008. Bush won by 10 points in 2004, so it seems like a classic swing district. Will that district be affected by redistricting?
NC-08 is also one of those districts that favored Bush both times by 7 and 9 points respectively, but went for Obama by 5. A lot of districts like this went GOP this year Kissell escaped as did Schuler and McIntyre (which are both in slightly stronger leaning R districts than NC-08). Those three will definitely be in the top tier of GOP targets in 2012. Pantano seemed like a credible opponent to McIntyre and is considering another run.
Bass does have a tough district (PVI D+3) and barely squeaked by. His opponent this year, Ann Kuster, is considering another run.
PA-10 is a strong R district so should stay R unless Marino stinks the place up and voters shift again like they did after Sherwood. Politicians in NE PA are notoriously crooked as you know. Marino did not set the world on fire with his fundraising.
Well if Marino has a primary challenger who would be a superior choice we should back that person.
Ditto for small mouth Bass. (and anyone else who is a RINO or damaged enough to hurt his GE chances)
Kissell and few of his NC buddies should be hurt by redistricting (rat guv can’t veto!). Farenthold should be helped a little.
Chip Craavick is also in danger. Cook or somebody put him at the top of the list, ignoring the GOP trend in that district, Obama/Kerry only got 53% there. GOP leg controls redistricting, illegitimate rat Governor Dayton can veto. MN may or may not lose a seat.
TX can help Farenthold but they’ll have to be careful not to reduce the Hispanic % too much and risk judicial alternation.
With Ohio (probably) losing two seats it's going to be tough keeping all 13 Republicans. Current delegation is 13 R - 5 D.
Gibbs will probably have an easier time than Bill Johnson as Gibbs holds the old Bob Nye seat and Johnson holds the Strickland/Wilson seat.
For one thing, there are at LEAST 50 reps who should already be worried about 2012.
For another, redistricting will have a huge impact on who's likely to get knocked off. Heath Shuler and Brad Miller could easily be written out depending on the plan chosen; at least as good a chance as Kissell.
There's no reason for Gibbs to be particularly vulnerable. Marino won his race handily despite no money and negative publicity. Bass's district is competitive but not particularly tough.
CF, Do you think that California’s new nonpartisan redistrciting board might open things up for some pick ups out there?
It can’t be any worse than their current gerrymander.
Johnson was a much better candidate, and I anticipate will be a stronger Congressman.
If the two are paired in one district (not sure if that is likely) Gibbs could win a primary, but I'd back Johnson for sure.
I think it will lead to a small net gain. It could leave a few GOP incumbents in tight spots as well though.
It's only somewhat likely, as the two districts are contiguous and neither is growing. Johnson's biggest problem is geographic he's at the most northern point of those districts.
I figure they'll take the 3 Cleveland are districts (Kucinich, Fudge, and Sutton) and consolidate them down to two in which case Sutton would be the odd woman out. As to the other consolidation in redistricting.
Johnson is the kind of citizen legislator the Tea Party crowd and independents support. Ditto with Cravaack. People are sick of the slick packaged-talking out of both sides of their mouths political hacks and they just want people who are real and who tell it like it is.
We got a lot of those type of people this time around. Hopefully they won’t be corrupted by the D.C. water and will stay real.
The Democrat faithful still haven’t caught on to this. They’re still voting for the lifetime career hacks who sell out their principles (if they ever had any to begin with) when they get inside the beltway.
It’s difficult to ascertain (at least at the moment) those most in danger before we see what the lines are for 2012. Undoubtedly, we probably will lose some of the Class of ‘10, of course (and just as undoubtedly, some Democrats that escaped the tide due to whatever reason may also similarly find themselves in trouble — see NC below)...
Farenthold is one of the big concerns, but Hispanic districts in TX haven’t been above electing Whites (such as Gene Green or Lloyd Doggett), he just needs to be very vigilant and work on improving his standing in the southernmost end of that district where he performed weakest (either that, or removing the area below Corpus Christi and giving that to the 15th (Ruben Hinojosa) while removing the north part of that district and giving it to Farenthold).
As for Kissell and the other NC Democrats, they’re all endangered (save for Watt & Butterfield) for 2012 when the GOP finally gets to draw the lines. It’s truly odd that only Etheridge lost (and that, probably solely due to his assault on the college student, otherwise he’d probably have survived). It reminds me of 1920, when NC didn’t elect any Republicans despite the national tide (and sweeps even in neighboring TN and VA), yet they finally cracked by 1928.
The GOP legislators in OH will have to probably sacrifice a seat or two of ours for redistricting. They did virtually nothing for 2002 when they had control (since then-Gov. Taft was apparently terrified about potentially removing then-Rep. Sherrod Brown and having him run against him instead), effectively preserving the ‘90s lines. Fudge is protected by the VRA, but I would try to corral as many Dem voters into the remaining 5 seats (putting Fudge and Kucinich in one seat would be nice) and get them down to 4 if possible.
Bass is, of course, a relatively weak member, but barring a repeat of 2006, I don’t necessarily see it as a given his losing in 2012. He, of course, is the first of his family to make a successful comeback in NH.
Can’t comment much about Marino, but it was more a fluke than anything else that Democrat Carney had the seat at all. It took Don Sherwood’s choking his mistress to finally see us lose the seat.
Chip Cravaack in MN-8 is a concern, too, but for an unusual reason, that of geography. He hails from the extreme southernmost part of the district (indeed, he’s just a short drive from his home in Lindstrom, Chisago County to Michele Bachmann’s home in Stillwater, just a county away) and the folks up in the Northern Range (Duluth, et al) may want one of their own as opposed to someone effectively from the Minny/St. Paul ‘burbs. My advice to Cravaack ? He might literally benefit relocating north to the Duluth area.
There shouldn’t be more than four Democrat seats in OH. The OH-09 should go from Toledo to Northern Lorain (which would have happened had Brown not scared Taft into drawing a safely Dem OH-13 with Northern Lorain and part of Akron); the OH-10 should include white parts of Cleveland, its white Dem suburbs and heavily Dem parts of Lake County; the black-majority OH-11 should include black parts of Cleveland, its black suburbs, and squirrel down to pick up black parts of Akron; and the OH-17 (which will need to be renumbered; I’d call it the OH-13, since the old OH-13 would be eliminated) would go from Dem parts of the Youngstown and Warren area to white parts of Akron and take in Canton as well. The biggest problem in the NE corner of the state is shoring up the Republican OH-14, which would need to gain quite a bit of population (particularly if heavily Dem parts of Lake are excised) despite being boxed in with Democrats all around (and with both the OH-11 and OH-17 needing land bridges to Akron); the way around it is to connect Youngstown to Akron via Alliance, Canton and Massillon in Stark County and include GOP parts of NE Stark County in the OH-14.
There is no need to draw a Dem CD in the rest of the state. The OH-01 can be shored up by giving it Warren County precincts currently in the and having the OH-02 take in white-majority Dem or marginal precincts (splitting up the black pop in Cinci could create unnecessary problems); the Dem-trending Columbus districts could be shored up by (i) adding Morrow County and the rest of Licking County to the OH-12 (and decreasing its Columbus precincts), (ii) adding Logan, Auglaize and Shelby Counties to the OH-15 (and decreasing its Columbus precincts), and (iii) excising Clark, Ross and Perry Counties from the OH-07 and adding all of those Columbus precincts that used to be in OH-12 and OH-15 (the OH-07 already had a bit of Columbus; it could have a lot more and still have voted 56% or so for Bush in 2005). This would necessitate eliminating Jim Jordan’s OH-04, which is not such a bad thing because he will likely run for the Senate against Sherrod Brown in 2012; since one GOP district has to be eliminated (OH will lose two seats), it might as well be the one of the guy running for the Senate and whose GOP counties will help shore up surrounding districts.
Given the number of Republican-dominated statehouses and governorships, it’s way too early for the Dems to be licking their chops. If anything, they may end up starting out further back then the numbers they got in 2010. Here’s some examples I’ve been thinking of.
Indiana: Republicans now have big majorities in both chambers, and Mitch Daniels has the pen. Can you say “Bye bye, Joe Donnelly?” Scratch one for the Dems.
Pennsylvania: I’d say either Jason Altmire or Mark Critz gets the ax. If the Republicans are smart, they won’t go overboard and try and gerrymander out too many Dems. Their current map didn’t work out as well as they planned. Exhibit A is Jim Gerlach having to keep outvoting the Montgomery County portions of his district.
North Carolina: Kissell, McIntyre, Miller and Shuler could be on the chopping block. Whether they want to go for Price is another matter. It might be better to keep a Chatham-Durham based district to keep the college dominated precincts out of the adjoining areas.
Michigan: I hear Michigan may lose a seat, and since the GOP has control, it may as well be Gary Peters. Swap out some more GOP-friendly precincts to McCotter, and give the Dem areas to Sander Levin.
Wisconsin: I don’t think the GOP can really do anything to weaken Ron Kind, perhaps not without harming Sean Duffy. Kind barely survived anyway, so he may lose next time without redistricting.
Georgia: Will the GOP go after John Barrow? Georgia is looking to gain a seat, but maybe they’ll try for a two-fer?
Iowa: Iowa is slated to lose a seat, and you have three Dems versus two GOP. I doubt Steve King or Tom Latham will lose. Perhaps Boswell will finally retire.
Oklahoma: Kind of iffy. Dan Boren is the last Dem standing, but could the GOP-led government really weaken him?
Massachusetts: Slated to lose a seat, and ALL the reps are Dem.
Texas: I don’t know of any vulnerable Dems that are left. Lloyd Doggett maybe, but the last effort to get rid of him backfired. Texas is supposed to gain seats, but will they necessarily be all Republican?
IN: Yeah, though Donnelly shouldn’t have won this time. The Libertarian was solely responsible for depriving Jackie Walorski of a win (much how Bob Barr was responsible for giving the state to Zero). We should also try to target Andre X for defeat. Unpacking a decent chunk of Dan Burton’s hyper-GOP district could accomplish that.
PA: Critz would probably be the best seat to eliminate. The GOP actually drew that contorted mess to keep Murtha (before his ugliness exploded full-tilt). The rest should be as shored-up for the incumbents as possible. I wish we could find a way to displace Tim Holden. That seat should not be sending a Democrat.
MI: It’s too bad we can’t merge the districts of Detroit (Conyers and Rep-elect Hansen Clarke) into one (given the plunging population). We should target (besides Gary Peters) the seats of Dingell and Dale Kildee (who is in his early 80s now and won by just 53% in November).
WI: As for Ron Kind, I think there is some expectation he may run for Herb Kohl’s seat if he retires, so that should be a pick-up for us if Dan Kapanke runs again, who lost by just less than 4%.
GA: No reason why we shouldn’t target both John Barrow and Sanford Bishop and get a 10-3 delegation. Bishop has moved way too far to the left for his district (but we probably should run a Black Republican).
IA: I believe an independent commission draws the lines, so whomever is thrown in together is up in the air. However, since Steve King represents the largest westernmost 5th, it would be hard for him to lose. Boswell’s 3rd, being in the center of the state, would be the easiest to redistribute between the current 1st, 2nd and 4th.
OK: I don’t know if we could really drastically reconfigure Boren’s seat that wouldn’t end up causing the other members to complain. I’d think it might be better to persuade Boren to switch parties. Clearly, he’s closer ideologically to our side than the Pelosi wing.
MA: Well, now that we failed to win jacksquat, no worries about which of the freshmen would get the axe. I still think the easiest option (without offending the Boston-area members) is to merge the western 1st and 2nd, forcing the senile John Olver out. Richard Neal actually had a relatively close call (57-43%) in a district that hasn’t elected a Republican Congressman since 1946. Maybe Sean Bielat can move to the former 10th and run rather than waste his time against the execrable Frank.
TX: I expect the VRA may see the legislature forced to give some of those seats to Hispanic Democrats, although as AuH2o has demonstrated, if the GOP was smart, they could find a way to draw the lines to increase Hispanic GOP members instead, which we will need for the long run.
Can you be more specific?/s
That being said, it’s possible that Bob Gibbs and Bill Johnson will see their districts combined.
California- Democrats in the legislature won’t control the process. If nothing else, Schwarzenegger deserves thanks for achieving that with Prop 20. It’s possible that the state will lose a seat. Until the census happens, anything is possible.
Colorado- doesn’t this state gain a seat? If so, it’s an opportunity. I’d say write off defeating Ed Perlmutter, who’s just too tough. Is it possible to create a new suburban district that Ryan Frazier can win? He’s be a celebrity, but I’m sure a lot of local state legislators are interested, also.
Florida- this state will gain 2-4 seats. There will be a lot of leeway here and I look forward to it. Perhaps you can elaborate on it.
IL- this could be a problem. A big problem. That jerk Phil Hare wants to come back to Congress and is counting on his former colleagues in the state legislature to make it happen. He was defeated in a convoluted district, but a number of freshman Republicans are in danger.
Indiana- Joe Donnelly’s win was a dissapointment. It wouldn’t take much to make the district more conservative. Any territory to the east or south would do it. Would Donnelly run for statewide office? Also, Larry Bouchon and Todd Young may need more compact districts.
Louisiana- this may lose a seat, probably a Republican one. Jeff Landry is in the most danger, it seems.
For my outlook on Ohio, check Posting #16.
Pennsylvania- perhaps Tom Marino can be primaried. He rode the wave, but his own party has doubts about him. It’s too bad he won the primary. In addition, there will be a lot of leeway in the Philadelphia suburbs.
Tennessee- Boy, oh, boy, there is so, so much that Republicans can do with this map. This is an opportunity for payback after 20 years of being screwed by the legislatative ‘Rats.
Charles Bass’s close margin has nothing to do with ideology or longevity. He was accused of a shady stock deal. Also, his opponent spent a ton of money. Will that charge stick or will it be yesterday’s news in 2012? Your guess is as good as mine.
DJ, I used to be the president of the “Split Indianapolis and Its Close-In Suburbs Into Two GOP CDs” fan club. However, the 2008 results made me realize that not only could it result in both Indianapolis CDs going Democrat in a good Democrat year, but we would have used up all of the GOP suburbs that we need to shore up the IN-08, IN-09 and IN-06 (the latter isn’t as safely Republican as Pence makes it look; keeping Madison and Delaware Counties together is an invitation to disater), plus heavily Dem Bloomington would have to go to either the IN-08 or IN-09, keeping them competitive. So what I would do is draw a ridiculously Democrat IN-07 (Obama would have gotten around 75% in 2008) that combines Dem parts of Indianapolis with Bloomington and other Dem parts of Monroe County through a narrow strip of Morgan County.
Similarly, I would draw a hyper-Democrat IN-01 (also 75%+ for Obama in 2008) from northern Lake County throgh lakefront parts of Porter County through Michigan City and other Dem parts of LaPorte County to South Bend and other Dem parts of St. Joseph County. After that, it would be almost impossible *not* to draw a heavily GOP IN-02 in which Donnelley would have no chance of winning.
I would take 7 CDs in which the Dems can’t possibly win and 2 safely Dem CDs out of a state that Obama carried and in which Dems have had a 4-3 advantage in the congressional delegation for the past four years.
BTW, I just looked into whether it would be possible to split Indianapolis into three GOP-leaning districts. The three Indianapolis CDs would have given McCain a combined 50% or so of the vote in 2008. Plus, putting all of the most heavily GOP counties into the three Indianapolis CDs to try to counterweigh heavily Dem Indianapolis would leave IN-06, IN-08 and IN-09 very vulnerable and not even IN-02 (as redrawn after making the IN-01 hyper-Democrat) and IN-03 would be completely safe. It just wouldn’t be worth the risk—give the Dems IN-07 and let’s enjoy a 7-2 advantage for at least the next decade.
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