Better Start Worrying About 2012 Already
• Rep.-elect Blake Farenthold (R-Texas)
• Rep. Larry Kissell (D-N.C.)
• Rep-elect Bob Gibbs (R-Ohio)
• Rep.-elect Charlie Bass (R-N.H.)
• Rep.-elect Tom Marino (R-Pa.)
Farenthold and Bass are in tough districts, and they are likely to draw serious opponents next year. Gibbs and Kissell ran unimpressive races. Gibbs caught the wave (but may get help from redistricting), while Kissell had a weak opponent. That leaves Marino, who shouldn’t take his re-election for granted, even in this very Republican district. Even Republicans acknowledge that he is so damaged that he probably will draw a credible primary opponent.
Farenthold would probably be set if he had a Hispanic surname. As it is, the district has Cook PVI of R+2 and Obama skewed that winning by 7 points in 2008. Bush won by 10 points in 2004, so it seems like a classic swing district. Will that district be affected by redistricting?
NC-08 is also one of those districts that favored Bush both times by 7 and 9 points respectively, but went for Obama by 5. A lot of districts like this went GOP this year Kissell escaped as did Schuler and McIntyre (which are both in slightly stronger leaning R districts than NC-08). Those three will definitely be in the top tier of GOP targets in 2012. Pantano seemed like a credible opponent to McIntyre and is considering another run.
Bass does have a tough district (PVI D+3) and barely squeaked by. His opponent this year, Ann Kuster, is considering another run.
PA-10 is a strong R district so should stay R unless Marino stinks the place up and voters shift again like they did after Sherwood. Politicians in NE PA are notoriously crooked as you know. Marino did not set the world on fire with his fundraising.
Well if Marino has a primary challenger who would be a superior choice we should back that person.
Ditto for small mouth Bass. (and anyone else who is a RINO or damaged enough to hurt his GE chances)
Kissell and few of his NC buddies should be hurt by redistricting (rat guv can’t veto!). Farenthold should be helped a little.
Chip Craavick is also in danger. Cook or somebody put him at the top of the list, ignoring the GOP trend in that district, Obama/Kerry only got 53% there. GOP leg controls redistricting, illegitimate rat Governor Dayton can veto. MN may or may not lose a seat.
With Ohio (probably) losing two seats it's going to be tough keeping all 13 Republicans. Current delegation is 13 R - 5 D.
Gibbs will probably have an easier time than Bill Johnson as Gibbs holds the old Bob Nye seat and Johnson holds the Strickland/Wilson seat.
For one thing, there are at LEAST 50 reps who should already be worried about 2012.
For another, redistricting will have a huge impact on who's likely to get knocked off. Heath Shuler and Brad Miller could easily be written out depending on the plan chosen; at least as good a chance as Kissell.
There's no reason for Gibbs to be particularly vulnerable. Marino won his race handily despite no money and negative publicity. Bass's district is competitive but not particularly tough.
CF, Do you think that California’s new nonpartisan redistrciting board might open things up for some pick ups out there?
It can’t be any worse than their current gerrymander.
It’s difficult to ascertain (at least at the moment) those most in danger before we see what the lines are for 2012. Undoubtedly, we probably will lose some of the Class of ‘10, of course (and just as undoubtedly, some Democrats that escaped the tide due to whatever reason may also similarly find themselves in trouble — see NC below)...
Farenthold is one of the big concerns, but Hispanic districts in TX haven’t been above electing Whites (such as Gene Green or Lloyd Doggett), he just needs to be very vigilant and work on improving his standing in the southernmost end of that district where he performed weakest (either that, or removing the area below Corpus Christi and giving that to the 15th (Ruben Hinojosa) while removing the north part of that district and giving it to Farenthold).
As for Kissell and the other NC Democrats, they’re all endangered (save for Watt & Butterfield) for 2012 when the GOP finally gets to draw the lines. It’s truly odd that only Etheridge lost (and that, probably solely due to his assault on the college student, otherwise he’d probably have survived). It reminds me of 1920, when NC didn’t elect any Republicans despite the national tide (and sweeps even in neighboring TN and VA), yet they finally cracked by 1928.
The GOP legislators in OH will have to probably sacrifice a seat or two of ours for redistricting. They did virtually nothing for 2002 when they had control (since then-Gov. Taft was apparently terrified about potentially removing then-Rep. Sherrod Brown and having him run against him instead), effectively preserving the ‘90s lines. Fudge is protected by the VRA, but I would try to corral as many Dem voters into the remaining 5 seats (putting Fudge and Kucinich in one seat would be nice) and get them down to 4 if possible.
Bass is, of course, a relatively weak member, but barring a repeat of 2006, I don’t necessarily see it as a given his losing in 2012. He, of course, is the first of his family to make a successful comeback in NH.
Can’t comment much about Marino, but it was more a fluke than anything else that Democrat Carney had the seat at all. It took Don Sherwood’s choking his mistress to finally see us lose the seat.
Chip Cravaack in MN-8 is a concern, too, but for an unusual reason, that of geography. He hails from the extreme southernmost part of the district (indeed, he’s just a short drive from his home in Lindstrom, Chisago County to Michele Bachmann’s home in Stillwater, just a county away) and the folks up in the Northern Range (Duluth, et al) may want one of their own as opposed to someone effectively from the Minny/St. Paul ‘burbs. My advice to Cravaack ? He might literally benefit relocating north to the Duluth area.