Replies

IN: Yeah, though Donnelly shouldn’t have won this time. The Libertarian was solely responsible for depriving Jackie Walorski of a win (much how Bob Barr was responsible for giving the state to Zero). We should also try to target Andre X for defeat. Unpacking a decent chunk of Dan Burton’s hyper-GOP district could accomplish that.

PA: Critz would probably be the best seat to eliminate. The GOP actually drew that contorted mess to keep Murtha (before his ugliness exploded full-tilt). The rest should be as shored-up for the incumbents as possible. I wish we could find a way to displace Tim Holden. That seat should not be sending a Democrat.

MI: It’s too bad we can’t merge the districts of Detroit (Conyers and Rep-elect Hansen Clarke) into one (given the plunging population). We should target (besides Gary Peters) the seats of Dingell and Dale Kildee (who is in his early 80s now and won by just 53% in November).

WI: As for Ron Kind, I think there is some expectation he may run for Herb Kohl’s seat if he retires, so that should be a pick-up for us if Dan Kapanke runs again, who lost by just less than 4%.

GA: No reason why we shouldn’t target both John Barrow and Sanford Bishop and get a 10-3 delegation. Bishop has moved way too far to the left for his district (but we probably should run a Black Republican).

IA: I believe an independent commission draws the lines, so whomever is thrown in together is up in the air. However, since Steve King represents the largest westernmost 5th, it would be hard for him to lose. Boswell’s 3rd, being in the center of the state, would be the easiest to redistribute between the current 1st, 2nd and 4th.

OK: I don’t know if we could really drastically reconfigure Boren’s seat that wouldn’t end up causing the other members to complain. I’d think it might be better to persuade Boren to switch parties. Clearly, he’s closer ideologically to our side than the Pelosi wing.

MA: Well, now that we failed to win jacksquat, no worries about which of the freshmen would get the axe. I still think the easiest option (without offending the Boston-area members) is to merge the western 1st and 2nd, forcing the senile John Olver out. Richard Neal actually had a relatively close call (57-43%) in a district that hasn’t elected a Republican Congressman since 1946. Maybe Sean Bielat can move to the former 10th and run rather than waste his time against the execrable Frank.

TX: I expect the VRA may see the legislature forced to give some of those seats to Hispanic Democrats, although as AuH2o has demonstrated, if the GOP was smart, they could find a way to draw the lines to increase Hispanic GOP members instead, which we will need for the long run.

California- Democrats in the legislature won’t control the process. If nothing else, Schwarzenegger deserves thanks for achieving that with Prop 20. It’s possible that the state will lose a seat. Until the census happens, anything is possible.

Colorado- doesn’t this state gain a seat? If so, it’s an opportunity. I’d say write off defeating Ed Perlmutter, who’s just too tough. Is it possible to create a new suburban district that Ryan Frazier can win? He’s be a celebrity, but I’m sure a lot of local state legislators are interested, also.

Florida- this state will gain 2-4 seats. There will be a lot of leeway here and I look forward to it. Perhaps you can elaborate on it.

IL- this could be a problem. A big problem. That jerk Phil Hare wants to come back to Congress and is counting on his former colleagues in the state legislature to make it happen. He was defeated in a convoluted district, but a number of freshman Republicans are in danger.

Indiana- Joe Donnelly’s win was a dissapointment. It wouldn’t take much to make the district more conservative. Any territory to the east or south would do it. Would Donnelly run for statewide office? Also, Larry Bouchon and Todd Young may need more compact districts.

Louisiana- this may lose a seat, probably a Republican one. Jeff Landry is in the most danger, it seems.

For my outlook on Ohio, check Posting #16.

Pennsylvania- perhaps Tom Marino can be primaried. He rode the wave, but his own party has doubts about him. It’s too bad he won the primary. In addition, there will be a lot of leeway in the Philadelphia suburbs.

Tennessee- Boy, oh, boy, there is so, so much that Republicans can do with this map. This is an opportunity for payback after 20 years of being screwed by the legislatative ‘Rats.

DJ, I used to be the president of the “Split Indianapolis and Its Close-In Suburbs Into Two GOP CDs” fan club. However, the 2008 results made me realize that not only could it result in both Indianapolis CDs going Democrat in a good Democrat year, but we would have used up all of the GOP suburbs that we need to shore up the IN-08, IN-09 and IN-06 (the latter isn’t as safely Republican as Pence makes it look; keeping Madison and Delaware Counties together is an invitation to disater), plus heavily Dem Bloomington would have to go to either the IN-08 or IN-09, keeping them competitive. So what I would do is draw a ridiculously Democrat IN-07 (Obama would have gotten around 75% in 2008) that combines Dem parts of Indianapolis with Bloomington and other Dem parts of Monroe County through a narrow strip of Morgan County.

Similarly, I would draw a hyper-Democrat IN-01 (also 75%+ for Obama in 2008) from northern Lake County throgh lakefront parts of Porter County through Michigan City and other Dem parts of LaPorte County to South Bend and other Dem parts of St. Joseph County. After that, it would be almost impossible *not* to draw a heavily GOP IN-02 in which Donnelley would have no chance of winning.

I would take 7 CDs in which the Dems can’t possibly win and 2 safely Dem CDs out of a state that Obama carried and in which Dems have had a 4-3 advantage in the congressional delegation for the past four years.

BTW, I just looked into whether it would be possible to split Indianapolis into three GOP-leaning districts. The three Indianapolis CDs would have given McCain a combined 50% or so of the vote in 2008. Plus, putting all of the most heavily GOP counties into the three Indianapolis CDs to try to counterweigh heavily Dem Indianapolis would leave IN-06, IN-08 and IN-09 very vulnerable and not even IN-02 (as redrawn after making the IN-01 hyper-Democrat) and IN-03 would be completely safe. It just wouldn’t be worth the risk—give the Dems IN-07 and let’s enjoy a 7-2 advantage for at least the next decade.