Given the number of Republican-dominated statehouses and governorships, it’s way too early for the Dems to be licking their chops. If anything, they may end up starting out further back then the numbers they got in 2010. Here’s some examples I’ve been thinking of.
Indiana: Republicans now have big majorities in both chambers, and Mitch Daniels has the pen. Can you say “Bye bye, Joe Donnelly?” Scratch one for the Dems.
Pennsylvania: I’d say either Jason Altmire or Mark Critz gets the ax. If the Republicans are smart, they won’t go overboard and try and gerrymander out too many Dems. Their current map didn’t work out as well as they planned. Exhibit A is Jim Gerlach having to keep outvoting the Montgomery County portions of his district.
North Carolina: Kissell, McIntyre, Miller and Shuler could be on the chopping block. Whether they want to go for Price is another matter. It might be better to keep a Chatham-Durham based district to keep the college dominated precincts out of the adjoining areas.
Michigan: I hear Michigan may lose a seat, and since the GOP has control, it may as well be Gary Peters. Swap out some more GOP-friendly precincts to McCotter, and give the Dem areas to Sander Levin.
Wisconsin: I don’t think the GOP can really do anything to weaken Ron Kind, perhaps not without harming Sean Duffy. Kind barely survived anyway, so he may lose next time without redistricting.
Georgia: Will the GOP go after John Barrow? Georgia is looking to gain a seat, but maybe they’ll try for a two-fer?
Iowa: Iowa is slated to lose a seat, and you have three Dems versus two GOP. I doubt Steve King or Tom Latham will lose. Perhaps Boswell will finally retire.
Oklahoma: Kind of iffy. Dan Boren is the last Dem standing, but could the GOP-led government really weaken him?
Massachusetts: Slated to lose a seat, and ALL the reps are Dem.
Texas: I don’t know of any vulnerable Dems that are left. Lloyd Doggett maybe, but the last effort to get rid of him backfired. Texas is supposed to gain seats, but will they necessarily be all Republican?
IN: Yeah, though Donnelly shouldn’t have won this time. The Libertarian was solely responsible for depriving Jackie Walorski of a win (much how Bob Barr was responsible for giving the state to Zero). We should also try to target Andre X for defeat. Unpacking a decent chunk of Dan Burton’s hyper-GOP district could accomplish that.
PA: Critz would probably be the best seat to eliminate. The GOP actually drew that contorted mess to keep Murtha (before his ugliness exploded full-tilt). The rest should be as shored-up for the incumbents as possible. I wish we could find a way to displace Tim Holden. That seat should not be sending a Democrat.
MI: It’s too bad we can’t merge the districts of Detroit (Conyers and Rep-elect Hansen Clarke) into one (given the plunging population). We should target (besides Gary Peters) the seats of Dingell and Dale Kildee (who is in his early 80s now and won by just 53% in November).
WI: As for Ron Kind, I think there is some expectation he may run for Herb Kohl’s seat if he retires, so that should be a pick-up for us if Dan Kapanke runs again, who lost by just less than 4%.
GA: No reason why we shouldn’t target both John Barrow and Sanford Bishop and get a 10-3 delegation. Bishop has moved way too far to the left for his district (but we probably should run a Black Republican).
IA: I believe an independent commission draws the lines, so whomever is thrown in together is up in the air. However, since Steve King represents the largest westernmost 5th, it would be hard for him to lose. Boswell’s 3rd, being in the center of the state, would be the easiest to redistribute between the current 1st, 2nd and 4th.
OK: I don’t know if we could really drastically reconfigure Boren’s seat that wouldn’t end up causing the other members to complain. I’d think it might be better to persuade Boren to switch parties. Clearly, he’s closer ideologically to our side than the Pelosi wing.
MA: Well, now that we failed to win jacksquat, no worries about which of the freshmen would get the axe. I still think the easiest option (without offending the Boston-area members) is to merge the western 1st and 2nd, forcing the senile John Olver out. Richard Neal actually had a relatively close call (57-43%) in a district that hasn’t elected a Republican Congressman since 1946. Maybe Sean Bielat can move to the former 10th and run rather than waste his time against the execrable Frank.
TX: I expect the VRA may see the legislature forced to give some of those seats to Hispanic Democrats, although as AuH2o has demonstrated, if the GOP was smart, they could find a way to draw the lines to increase Hispanic GOP members instead, which we will need for the long run.
In PA Barlettla could use some shoring up, that could complicate efforts to get rid of Holden, who already sits in a GOP-leaning seat.