Posted on 10/29/2010 7:16:17 PM PDT by CedarDave
Ed and I have been trying to game out how we’ll handle blogging the late late late night returns on Tuesday from Alaska. I’d been dreading having to post at 4 a.m., but now I’m looking forward to it for the simple reason that waiting on numbers that late will at least mean the race is close.
Eeyoreblogger pessimism status check: Spiking.
The poll, conducted by Dittman Research & Communications, shows Murkowski leading attorney Joe Miller (R), 37 percent to 27 percent, with the Democrat, Sitka Mayor Scott McAdams, in third place with 23 percent. Thirteen percent chose other candidates or were undecided.Replicating the write-in process in a phone survey can be difficult, but the technique used by pollster Dave Dittman is unique to most public polls of the race. Respondents are first asked an open-ended question about their vote preference, and their choice of candidate is recorded. If the respondent is unable to make a choice, he or she is read the names of the candidates on the ballot, with the option of a write-in candidate. In order to choose Murkowski, the respondent must choose the write-in option and provide her name.
(Excerpt) Read more at hotair.com ...
ditto
For the hundredth time: THEY DON'T HAVE TO SPELL IT ACCURATELY.
It’s BS BS BS........
What that means is that conditions are not "uniform". You can't plan on all of your population having phone service such that anyone would understand the meaning of the term!
Years ago I did an analysis on a peculiar sort of crime that seemed to occur ONLY in Alaska, although I did find some signs of it happening earlier in the last century in Montana. Canada Post people knew about it too.
What would happen is that during the warm months of the year people would take whatever cash they got from jobs lumbering or fishing, or fur trapping, etc. (basic extractive industries) and buy Postal Money Orders.
The money would pile up in the post office safe.
Otherwise there were no general banking services for enormously huge parts of Alaska.
During the winter the people would cash in their money orders (writing themselves in as payee) and the post office would give them cash.
Sometimes, in a particularly good Summer season the cash laid in the post office safe was enough to tempt someone to become a thief. The postmaster himself would take the money and GO SOMEWHERE ELSE and never be heard of again, nor was it possible to track him down.
Wasn't a lot of folks ever did this, but it only happened in Alaska to a degree that it was a general problem.
Although communications are improved, and there's almost no one robbing post offices anymore anywhere, it's still difficult to reach people on surveys. You might have to wait weeks until they turn their phones back on.
Consequently, a random sample is not possible unless you stratify your universe of potential calls ~ and a lot more than by those 6 geographic categories. The way that's laid out in this survey it's got a definite URBAN bias. You'd also want to have at least 20 people sampled in each cell times the number of candidates reported on ~ a task I'd think would be impossible.
400 people is too lightweight for the task ~ probably wouldn't even give you a good result if all you asked was "are you Republican or Democrat".
I’m not buying that and neither should you. These kind of last minute panic polls are designed to induce exactly the reaction you had.
Hold fast.
Alaska cannot be compared to any other state when it comes to polling, too many people in the outback don’t even have phones and yet they vote.
sure a write-in candidate is going to pull 37%, I find that hard to believe even in Alaska. Wishful thinking
The odds makers across the pond at oddschecker.com and a posting bookie “paddy power” has Miller as the favorite, you have to put up $175.00 in order to win $100.00. I trust the people that bet over the poll takers.
I don’t know what to believe, either.
What is essentially credible is the idea that Miller has been fading for a while in the polls.
Wait and see what happens on election day.
Does Moosecowski season open on Tuesday?
Liberal Push Poll. Complete fabricated horse-hockey. Poorly disguised, blatant attempt to affect voter turn out. There was a decision just a couple days ago that a list of ‘write in candidates’ CANNOT be included on the ballot. That means Murkowski’s name won’t even appear at the ballot box, people would have to remember her to write her in.
Write-in candidates are hard to poll because the voter has to take an extra step to vote for a write-in that he wouldn’t have to take for someone who’s name is printed on the ballot. It’s very easy when being polled on the phone to say you’ll vote for Lisa, but when you get to the polls, you have to actually remember to do it. That’s why it is so critical that there are no reminders to voters anywhere in the polling area. A voter who is in a hurry, or tired from a long day’s work will vote a straight ticket or go through the names on the ballot and fill them out as quickly as possible to get it over with. Later on he might remember he meant to vote for Lisa but then it’s too late.
I never trust anything with Allah in its name.
between the tea party, the military, the hunters and fishermen, the oil men, the true conservatives,and the manly men, I would think Joe could pull in enough votes...
Polling Data
Poll Date Sample Miller (R) Murkowski McAdams (D) Spread
RCP Average 10/9 - 10/19 — 35.7 34.7 25.3 Miller +1.0
CNN/Time 10/15 - 10/19 946 LV 37 37 23 Tie
Rasmussen Reports 10/13 - 10/13 500 LV 35 34 27 Miller +1
Daily Kos/PPP (D) 10/9 - 10/10 1678 LV 35 33 26 Miller +2
CNN/Time 9/24 - 9/28 927 LV 38 36 22 Miller +2
Rasmussen Reports 9/19 - 9/19 500 LV 42 27 25 Miller +15
Anyone have any ideas what a denied by ballot name issues would be? At first I thought it was two names were too similar, but that wasn’t it. Then I thought maybe it was a situation where someone had a name like “Mike Hunt”, but that is not it either. Any ideas?
I’ve avoided Intrade this election. Would someone please go there and find out what Murkowski vs. Miller is trading at?
I checked a few hours ago. She’s trading quite a bit above Miller.
Don’t avoid intrade, they tend to track insanely accurately in the last week. Wacth it and be prepared to take it.
If it’s bad or good, that’s what it’ll be. Don’t be shocked at the results, it’s bad for your system.
The poll internals show that THIRTY PERCENT of participants describe themselves as LIBERAL. That’s 50% above the representation of libs in the U.S. population. In Alaska? WTH?
I’m not as confident as I’d like to be about Miller’s chances, but this sample looks ridiculous to me.
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