Posted on 10/29/2010 7:16:17 PM PDT by CedarDave
Ed and I have been trying to game out how we’ll handle blogging the late late late night returns on Tuesday from Alaska. I’d been dreading having to post at 4 a.m., but now I’m looking forward to it for the simple reason that waiting on numbers that late will at least mean the race is close.
Eeyoreblogger pessimism status check: Spiking.
The poll, conducted by Dittman Research & Communications, shows Murkowski leading attorney Joe Miller (R), 37 percent to 27 percent, with the Democrat, Sitka Mayor Scott McAdams, in third place with 23 percent. Thirteen percent chose other candidates or were undecided.Replicating the write-in process in a phone survey can be difficult, but the technique used by pollster Dave Dittman is unique to most public polls of the race. Respondents are first asked an open-ended question about their vote preference, and their choice of candidate is recorded. If the respondent is unable to make a choice, he or she is read the names of the candidates on the ballot, with the option of a write-in candidate. In order to choose Murkowski, the respondent must choose the write-in option and provide her name.
(Excerpt) Read more at hotair.com ...
What I have learned from this thread is that Dittman was way off in his primary call for Murky. It makes me feel a little better.
See 11 . Dittman is a Stevens /Murk troll and pushes Push Polls.
The only way Jim Miller loses is through voter fraud. Until people started paying a hefty fine and jail time for voter fraud it will continue.
Yes, they use to work for daddy. LOL
Thanks for that wake-up slap. Gotta have that beer now...
I was just going to make the Same point.
I trust no poll from AK.
Joe had 55,000 votes in the primary. I don’t believe any of the people who voted for him in the primary would leave him. He has to have some independent support.
They had 317,000 turnout in 2008. So it won’t be that high. In 2002 turnout was 230,000. So turnout should be around 250,000.
That means they are saying he is only getting around 70,000. That means they think of all the people that didn’t vote in the Republican primary. He gets 15,000 out of 140,000. That’s a little more than 10%, doubtful.
Who did the poll.
yeh- gallup is liberal until they show the GOP up by 13pts on the generic ballot then everyone loves them...
i wouldn’t be worried about any polls in that state at this point in time...
I don’t know...She may be ahead...However.....Her supporters still have to write in her name...or find her name among the 100 or so other write in’s!
The best thing that could happen if she wins is for the Repbulican leadership to treat her as a fresman senator and give her a bupkis assignment to some obscure committee.
The best thing that could happen if she wins is for the Repbulican leadership to treat her as a fresman senator and give her a bupkis assignment to some obscure committee.
>> We might be witnessing some kind of bizaree political miracle.
To succeed, her newfound support would have to be from voters who can write and spell. English.
Considering that she’s a left-leaning sack of crap, that’s highly unlikely.
I’m calling BS....
I think that is true for almost any state election. One can poll a state for a presidential election because the turnout profile is more predictable. The bottom line for all of us is: if we have a conservative running in our state we must work like Hell.
Ras also told O’Reilly that Joe’s favorables had fallen, but that write in candidates are hard to poll. Why? Aren’t these polls by phone? What am I missing?
That easily drops Lisa to 35% and Joe gets a bump up to 39%.
It's possible for Lisa to get write-in votes. I don't see how it's possible for write-in voters to decide they want to stand in line to write her in when it's below freezing and it's snowing. It will be so much easier to just vote for Joe and the other Republicans on the ballot.
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