U.S. SENATE RACE: Reid takes lead on Angle

Las Vegas Review Journal ^ | 7/15/10 | las vegas review journal

[Kahuna]

Another major problem in this race stems from the Republican primary whereby Reid destroyed Sue Lowden with 527 ads. Lowden has done nothing that I know of to support Angle since June 8th. The undecided and “none of above” vote will swing toward Angle if the Republican base gets their act together. Harry will top out at about 43% plus 3% fraud. Sharron can get to 49 to 50% with an effective counter attack IMO.

[AFPhys]

It now seems that this race will be the acid test for the viability of “T.E.A. Party” ideas of smaller government.

I know people will call “foul” about this poll, but I will take it on its face. If Angle is unable to defeat Reid here, it will really call into question whether America will be able to halt the stream of socialism.

[GOPRaleigh]

If you are a mult-term incumbant and you cannot move off 44% against a relative unknown then you are in trouble. BIG trouble.

[ScottinVA]

Disturbing but not surprising. Reid and the dems own the media, and they’ve been pounding Angle non-stop. I had some hope for this one, but it looks like the dems’ machinery is taking control of this race.

Beating Reid was always going to be an uphill climb, considering his massive base of union and illegal alien support, in addition to a VERY dem-friendly media.

[rwilson99]

You get it... the rule of the incumbent... if you have all the name recognition you can and you’re not at 50% or darn close... the challenger has no where to go but up.

[moose2004]

Rasmussen has Angle +3 during the same time period, in addition, Mason Dixon wasn’t even close in their polling on the 2009 Va Gov race, Ras and Survey USA were right on the money.

[ladyvet]

Anyone in Nevada can clue us in to what’s going on out there?

Las Vegas and Reno. Those of us in the rest of the state are outvoted. It's no different across the rest of the land. The libs are like locus, the come, destroy, and move on.

[reagan_fanatic]

This just shows how truly stupid most of the voting public really is

Agreed 1000%

[cranked]

As with Florida and Crist, there must be some seriously idiot-ridden folks in Neveda to have his SORRY ARSE re-elected especially given the utter BS they have shoved down our collective throats in the past year and a half.... =.=

[Titus Quinctius Cincinnatus]

Only Republicans could screw up this election year.

How exactly do you think this has anything to do with "Republicans screwing up"? How so?

Stuff it with the independent nonsense. It's independents who'd rather criticise the GOP than help make sure that conservative GOPers win who will be the death of us all.

[Kahuna]

This race is not over by any means. Unlike previous years, the likely voters are highly motivated. A few months ago 10,000 tea party folks turned out to a rally in Harry’s backyard. The traffic was backed up over 8 miles with concerned citizens that never made it to the rally. Nothing has changed that dynamic as Nevada’s economy is getting worse by the minute.

[existtoexcel]

article, The phone survey, taken Monday through Wednesday of 625 likely voters in Nevada

Your take, "People that actually work for a living are on vacation and unavailable to answer pollsters."

I think you are right

[DaxtonBrown]

"Harry has effectively painted Sharron as a total whack job with ads that air every few minutes."

As I've told everyone who said the campaign by Sharron Angle is in the bag, Reid is one vicious son of a bitch and won't go down without a fight. I used to work for a Dem political consultant and I know how dirty the game is played. Fortunately, I have written a book which exposes Reid's bribe taking and crooked politics, but we need to take it to the national level (Rush, Hannity, Beck).

You can look it up on Amazon.com under Daxton Brown, or here is a direct link where I make a little more money. I'm self funded and out on a limb with this without a net, so Freeper help is appreciated.

If you saw the movie Casino, this expands on that story to cover Harry sending his campaign manager to pick up money from pimp Joe Conforte at the Mustang Ranch, to land deals and the recent shakedown of bankers to fund CityCenter (and pay off Dubai World and Stanley Ho the Macao pimp and gambler). The book is filled with Harry's dirt, now we just need to get it to a national level.

[ScottinVA]

If you are a mult-term incumbant and you cannot move off 44% against a relative unknown then you are in trouble. BIG trouble.

Yes, but when your opponent is steadily losing support and has dropped below 40% in support, you're in less trouble than your opponent.

[RockinRight]

Put another way, this was around the time in 2008 that McCain was leading Obama and it looked like he’d win.

We know how that worked out.

That said, I’m worried about Angle. I’m not concerned about her views (I think they’re mostly right-on) but more how those views will be spun by Reid. That plus the fact that Angle seems to not quite be up to the task of taking on a guy like Dingy Harry.

Hopefully she can pull it off.

Few conservatives who could actually get the nomination for a major seat are truly “too extreme” to win in a state like Nevada (MA or MD would be a different story) - it’s how they market themselves (and respond to attacks from the liberal opponent) that makes all the difference.

[ScottinVA]

This race is not over by any means.

True, but the drain circling is beginning, and Angle has to kick it up if she's to have any chance at all. The fact Nevada's economy is getting worse by the minute doesn't seem to be helping her much. Reid said he was going to run on his "experience and clout," and it seems to be working.

[sam_paine]

I've never seen people as riled as they are now. People I've known for 30 years who haven't ever been remotely interested in politics are riled beyond belief.

Agreed. Me too. But they're the crust. I wonder about the mushy middle.

I've got a few (older) people who've got me on a cc list that send 5-6 emails a day from Beck's site or youtube something or other, or the urban legends with crazy fonts and stuff.

There are probably 40 people on those lists, and I wonder what those other people think. The mushy middle.

I know all the stuff before that guy sends it. I can comment intelligently and reply with corrections etc.

The other people may be mystified...or bored and ignore it.

Anyway, suppose this guy is as riled up and involved in politics as ever.

Suppose these mushy people are watching from the sideline.

Suppose they ALL go vote the Dems out....but that the Dems "barely win" through Florida 2000 redux.

Then what?

Some think revolt. I think recede.

The emailer will be heartbroken. And may fight on.

The mushy middle will just relent. If not, then why don't they comment now? I think the people you see active are one thing. The people who email are another. and the people who do not care do now show.

I don't think 44 - 37 now indicates that there are enough people who care one way or the other.

[moose2004]

Do you remember this poll? Other polls around the same time showed Bob with a larger lead than 8. Bob won by 18 points:

http://www2.newsadvance.com/lna/news/local/article/mason-dixon_poll_mcdonnell_up_by_8_points_over_deeds/20278/

[GOPRaleigh]

Please take this right way - I am not being confrontational at all. Reid needs to be over 50% right now. That is critical for him. He is in HUGE trouble. This poll is a disaster for him. Pay no attention to the trees - look at the forest.

[Forty-Niner]

“Like the man says,

If voting really meant anything they wouldn’t let us do it.”

LOLOLOL The voting they don’t mind.....it’s the counting they don’t want us to do!