Posted on 07/16/2010 6:16:02 AM PDT by gumbyandpokey
U.S. SENATE RACE: Reid takes lead on Angle
New poll shows Republican losing support among every voter group
By LAURA MYERS © 2010 LAS VEGAS REVIEW-JOURNAL More Info
* Elections * Opinion Polls * Politics
LAS VEGAS REVIEW-JOURNAL
LAS VEGAS REVIEW-JOURNAL
LAS VEGAS REVIEW-JOURNAL
Harry Reid Senator ahead outside of margin of error
U.S. Sen. Harry Reid has opened a strong lead over Republican opponent Sharron Angle after pummeling her in a ubiquitous TV and radio ad campaign that portrays the Tea Party favorite as "too extreme," according to a new poll for the Las Vegas Review-Journal.
The Democratic incumbent's aggressive strategy of attacking Angle's staunch conservative views from the moment she won the June 8 primary has cost her support among every voter group -- from men and women to both political parties and independents -- in vote-rich Clark and Washoe counties.
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"He's had five perfect weeks," said Brad Coker of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, which conducted the survey. "The race has been all about her, and he's been doing a good job of pounding her."
Yet Coker said it's too soon to write off Angle. More than one-quarter of the nonpartisan swing voters who probably will decide the Nov. 2 election haven't jumped to the still-unpopular Reid but instead are undecided or in the "other" or "none of these candidates" columns, the poll showed.
"I wouldn't write her obituary just yet," Coker said, noting it's a long way to November. "Three and a half months is a lifetime, and at some point she's going to be able to start fighting back."
The Mason-Dixon poll showed that if the general election were held now, Reid would win 44 percent to 37 percent for Angle. Ten percent were undecided, 5 percent would choose "none of these candidates," and the remaining 4 percent would pick another candidate on the ballot.
That is the best Reid has done against Angle this year in a series of Mason-Dixon polls. Previously, the two had been locked in a statistical dead heat with Angle finishing just ahead of Reid in February, 44 percent to 42 percent, and in June, 44 percent to 41 percent, and Reid finishing just ahead of Angle in May, 42 percent to 39 percent.
The phone survey, taken Monday through Wednesday of 625 likely voters in Nevada, is the first in which Reid has finished ahead of Angle outside the margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
The Reid campaign attributed the senator's momentum to its efforts to expose the former Reno assemblywoman's views.
They include allowing young workers to opt out of Social Security and instead open personal retirement accounts, doing away with federal agencies such as the Education Department to cut spending and developing Yucca Mountain into a nuclear reprocessing facility.
"We have always said that as Nevada voters become familiar with Sharron Angle's extreme positions on Social Security, education and Yucca Mountain, they will reject her agenda," Reid campaign spokesman Jon Summers said in a statement. "Nevadans know Senator Reid is working every day to create jobs, keep people in their homes and get our economy back on track."
The Angle campaign -- a mom-and- pop operation that had been piling up debt during the GOP primary -- acknowledged it has been overwhelmed and overmatched by the rapid-fire Reid camp, which has been spending about $1 million a month, including on nonstop ads.
But Angle spokesman Jerry Stacy said the campaign is now capable of battling back after raising nearly as much money as Reid during the latest fundraising quarter that ended June 30: $2.3 million compared with $2.4 million. Angle's campaign now has nearly $1.8 million cash on hand, compared with $9 million cash for Reid, who has raised $19.2 million this election cycle.
"While we were busy raising money, Harry Reid was busy distorting Sharron Angle's record while trying to hide from his own," Stacy said in an interview. "Now it's our turn. Now that we have the money, we're going to be able to run a more effective campaign."
Stacy said that Reid's best hope of winning re-election is to keep the focus on Angle because he is unpopular at home. Also, President Barack Obama and Reid are having difficulty convincing voters that the $787 billion stimulus bill and industry bailouts are working to turn the economy around.
"Harry Reid knows he's in trouble, and he can't build himself up," Stacy said. "He can't run on his record and win. People counted Sharron out during the primary, but we proved them wrong. Do not count Sharron Angle out now. What this race is really about is the economy."
Nevada has suffered more than other state during the recession. It has a record unemployment rate of 14 percent, the highest in the nation, and record high home foreclosure and bankruptcy rates.
Angle's first and only TV ad in the general election hits Reid on the economy. Stacy said a second commercial has been cut and will air soon, also taking Reid to task for Nevada's dismal standing, becoming the hardest-hit state in the nation during the Senate leader's watch.
But Reid is starting to go toe-to-toe with Angle on economic issues, both by attacking her in TV and radio ads and by having Obama come to Nevada as he did last week to promote Reid and the Democrats' moves to create new jobs and spur private business development.
While Reid helped save the $8.5 billion CityCenter project on the Strip by pressuring banks to continue funding it, Angle has said she would not have interfered, something the senator's campaign points out in its attack ads. Reid also has a positive ad promoting his CityCenter role.
Angle and other fiscally conservative Republicans argue that private enterprises should fail or succeed on their own and government shouldn't choose which industries are "too big to fail."
Since last month, Reid's campaign has managed to make Angle nearly as unpopular as Reid.
According to the latest Mason-Dixon poll, 46 percent of voters have an unfavorable view of Reid and 37 percent have a favorable view of him now. That compares with 52 percent to 35 percent in June.
Angle's unfavorable rating, meanwhile, jumped by double digits -- from 25 percent in early June to 43 percent now -- while her favorable rating is now 33 percent compared with 38 percent last month.
"I was surprised how quickly and how effectively the Reid campaign came out against her after the primary," said Eric Herzik, political science professor at the University of Nevada, Reno. "I think Angle got caught off guard. Harry Reid didn't give her any breathing time, so she got defined as 'wacky Sharron.' "
As a result, Angle lost support across the board in July compared with early June:
■ Among men, Angle fell from 50 percent support to 41 percent now.
■ Among women, 38 percent to 33 percent.
■ Among Democrats, 12 percent to 8 percent.
■ Among Republicans, 81 percent to 70 percent.
■ Among independents, 41 percent to 35 percent.
■ Among Clark County voters, 37 percent to 32 percent.
■ And among Washoe County voters, 51 percent to 34 percent.
Reid's support ticked up a bit among all those groups except nonpartisans, with his backing holding steady at 37 percent now compared with 37 percent in the June 1-3 survey.
The Democratic incumbent, whose base of support is Southern Nevada, saw his numbers shoot up by double digits in Washoe County -- from 32 percent to 45 percent -- which should jolt Angle, whose base is Northern and rural Nevada, which remains strongly for her and against Reid.
Herzik said the new Mason-Dixon poll findings show how effective Reid's general election strategy has been, and now the question is "how well does Angle respond."
In Angle's previous close elections, Herzik said the grass-roots campaigner has usually finished strong, including when she nearly beat Rep. Dean Heller in 2006 and won the GOP primary this year.
"She needs to come up with a response that levels the playing field," Herzik said. "We've seen that Harry's Part 1 was pretty effective" in his general election campaign. "What is Harry's Part 2? What's the next thing he can use to promote his campaign and really bring down Sharron Angle?"
Social Security doesn't seem to be a winning issue for either camp because voters are so divided on it.
According to the Mason-Dixon poll, 46 percent think that allowing investment in private accounts "is too financially risky" and the current system should be left alone, which endorses Reid's position. But 41 percent agree that young workers should be allowed to "opt out" of Social Security "as long as those who have already paid into the Social Security system receive their benefits as promised," which is what Angle proposes. Another 13 percent were not sure.
Angle has said her focus will be "the economy, the economy, the economy," arguing federal government should create a low-tax, low-regulation, business-friendly environment to create jobs.
Reid's camp seems intent on highlighting his work to bring clean-energy jobs to Nevada and intent on continuing to portray Angle as out of step and out of the mainstream.
Herzik said voters should expect an "October surprise," including some sort of positive economic announcement that Obama and Reid can make to help put him over the top to victory.
In the end, Reid himself has long said he doesn't need to raise his support too much higher to win because voters will face nine choices on the splintered ballot: Reid, Angle, four nonpartisan candidates, one Independent American Party contender, one Tea Party of Nevada candidate and "none."
Contact Laura Myers at lmyers@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2919.
The Rasmussen poll you cite is encouraging. I have to say though that I’m taken aback by the Maxon-Dixon polls sudden drop for Angle. I doubt they’ve changed their polling methods from their previous recent polls so for me this is cause for concern.
I made this point some time back, but it still holds true. Repubs and Conservatives have been handed this election on a silver platter with all the crap the DIMs have done. The anger and hostility is very present, but it’s mostly ‘unfocused’. This is the Repubs election to lose. The DIMs will pull out the same playbook they always have. Repubs do themselves a huge, huge disservice if they think they can sit on their hands and let voter apathy alone carry them over the finish line. The mob is fickle, and the middle is mushy. Don’t think because Reid is extremely unpopular that he can’t win. Reid is doing what Angle should have and should be doing, steering the debate. I don’t care if there are still three months to go, Angle and her team need to get off their asses and go to work.
Some funny business going here.
****************
Yes.
Which is why, October will be the month to get out of the stock market for the next 2~3 years.
People that actually work for a living are on vacation and unavailable to answer pollsters.
ANY data taken during this time of year is notoriously unreliable. Don't forget, that many polling calls come in to unoccupied residences or the call is answered by a student, home from College or high school.
Not only that, there are huge volumes of Liberals out of work in Nevada who are just staying at home, drawing Reid bribe money. (unemployment)
Not only that!
The liberals are pulling out all the stops.
Don't believe it....forge ahead even stronger Tea Party.
The polls like this are self-reinforcing, if he wins by a single vote it will be spun as a complete repudiation of the Tea Party and conservatism.
And the zombie voters will conform.
Just aother influential poll trying to discourage the voters. Some even speak from the grave. See Charlotte McCourt’s obituary in the Las Vegas Review Journal. Just Google “Charlotte McCourt obituary Las Vegas”. Says so much about how the locals feel about Harry Reid.
Mason Dixon had Reid +3 over Angle on 5/24 - 5/26, close to the same time that Research 2000 had Reid +6 and the Las Vegas Review had Angle +3. Mason Dixon and Research 2000 are the ONLY polls I could find that EVER showed Reid with a lead.
Sharron Angle is right up there with Mark Kirk and Rand Paul. All three are lousy candidates — who could lose what were layups at one time.
Only the GOP!
Its called, “dispirit the opposition”. The only game the’ve got is to game the system. The system? Fickle’d voters. Who are the fickle’d voters? Independents mostly. The last thing an independent wants, is to be labeled an extremist or worse, a racist. The independent mostly wants to be thought a pragmatist, someone who thinks deeply about an issue and tries to see all sides... they eventually come down on the side of populism or the side which seems to be winning. So if the opposition, which now contains more independent voters than once voted for the party in power, can be painted as extreme, then independents will shift to avoid the label, leaving the opposition in the lurch.
Even if the numbers don’t shift that much, it is enough to jolt the opposition and cause them to be dispirited. The hope is to dampen the intensity level and cause some voters to give up and go home. All you gotta do is keep that billboard in mind, Obama, Hitler and Stalin, Democratic Socialism is where we are now headed... is that where you want to end up?
And that will only further the decline of Liberalism and the laimstream media. I've never seen people as riled as they are now. People I've known for 30 years who haven't ever been remotely interested in politics are riled beyond belief. The Dims have jumped the shark big time. The dog and pony show they and groups like the NAALCP been putting on for decades is finally ringing hollow with the masses. The real question is whether or not it's too late to save the Republic.
Then I guess dingy has to lose.
“Not only that, look at RCP averages. Rasmussen has been one of the best for quite some time.”
Don’t forget Survey USA, their State by State polls are very accurate, they and Ras were right on the money in the 2009 VA governor’s race.
To me, this is the most disturbing part of the article:
“Among Republicans, 81 percent to 70 percent”
I can’t believe 19 percent of Republicans didn’t support her to begin with, but now an additional 11% are being duped by this corrupt thug’s organization?
Truly they are not Republicans to begin with!
She’ll need a good 10 point lead to overcome the corrupt/fraud/union vote.
Well sure they are. It's the "Band Wagon Effect". But it's still a legitimate problem. Everybody on this thread might differ to some extent on the legitimacy of this poll but we are all united in wanting to see Harry Reid out of office.
No one seems to be focusing on the fact that Harry has money pouring in from leftist sources throughout the Country. I am most concerned about the phoney votes, felon votes, and all the crooked ways the Dems “win”. Just look at Al Franken.
This means it’s time to open the wallets and send money to Angle.
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