U.S. SENATE RACE: Reid takes lead on Angle

Las Vegas Review Journal ^ | 7/15/10 | las vegas review journal

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U.S. SENATE RACE: Reid takes lead on Angle

New poll shows Republican losing support among every voter group

By LAURA MYERS © 2010 LAS VEGAS REVIEW-JOURNAL More Info

* Elections * Opinion Polls * Politics

LAS VEGAS REVIEW-JOURNAL

LAS VEGAS REVIEW-JOURNAL

LAS VEGAS REVIEW-JOURNAL

Harry Reid Senator ahead outside of margin of error

U.S. Sen. Harry Reid has opened a strong lead over Republican opponent Sharron Angle after pummeling her in a ubiquitous TV and radio ad campaign that portrays the Tea Party favorite as "too extreme," according to a new poll for the Las Vegas Review-Journal.

The Democratic incumbent's aggressive strategy of attacking Angle's staunch conservative views from the moment she won the June 8 primary has cost her support among every voter group -- from men and women to both political parties and independents -- in vote-rich Clark and Washoe counties.

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"He's had five perfect weeks," said Brad Coker of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, which conducted the survey. "The race has been all about her, and he's been doing a good job of pounding her."

Yet Coker said it's too soon to write off Angle. More than one-quarter of the nonpartisan swing voters who probably will decide the Nov. 2 election haven't jumped to the still-unpopular Reid but instead are undecided or in the "other" or "none of these candidates" columns, the poll showed.

"I wouldn't write her obituary just yet," Coker said, noting it's a long way to November. "Three and a half months is a lifetime, and at some point she's going to be able to start fighting back."

The Mason-Dixon poll showed that if the general election were held now, Reid would win 44 percent to 37 percent for Angle. Ten percent were undecided, 5 percent would choose "none of these candidates," and the remaining 4 percent would pick another candidate on the ballot.

That is the best Reid has done against Angle this year in a series of Mason-Dixon polls. Previously, the two had been locked in a statistical dead heat with Angle finishing just ahead of Reid in February, 44 percent to 42 percent, and in June, 44 percent to 41 percent, and Reid finishing just ahead of Angle in May, 42 percent to 39 percent.

The phone survey, taken Monday through Wednesday of 625 likely voters in Nevada, is the first in which Reid has finished ahead of Angle outside the margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

The Reid campaign attributed the senator's momentum to its efforts to expose the former Reno assemblywoman's views.

They include allowing young workers to opt out of Social Security and instead open personal retirement accounts, doing away with federal agencies such as the Education Department to cut spending and developing Yucca Mountain into a nuclear reprocessing facility.

"We have always said that as Nevada voters become familiar with Sharron Angle's extreme positions on Social Security, education and Yucca Mountain, they will reject her agenda," Reid campaign spokesman Jon Summers said in a statement. "Nevadans know Senator Reid is working every day to create jobs, keep people in their homes and get our economy back on track."

The Angle campaign -- a mom-and- pop operation that had been piling up debt during the GOP primary -- acknowledged it has been overwhelmed and overmatched by the rapid-fire Reid camp, which has been spending about $1 million a month, including on nonstop ads.

But Angle spokesman Jerry Stacy said the campaign is now capable of battling back after raising nearly as much money as Reid during the latest fundraising quarter that ended June 30: $2.3 million compared with $2.4 million. Angle's campaign now has nearly $1.8 million cash on hand, compared with $9 million cash for Reid, who has raised $19.2 million this election cycle.

"While we were busy raising money, Harry Reid was busy distorting Sharron Angle's record while trying to hide from his own," Stacy said in an interview. "Now it's our turn. Now that we have the money, we're going to be able to run a more effective campaign."

Stacy said that Reid's best hope of winning re-election is to keep the focus on Angle because he is unpopular at home. Also, President Barack Obama and Reid are having difficulty convincing voters that the $787 billion stimulus bill and industry bailouts are working to turn the economy around.

"Harry Reid knows he's in trouble, and he can't build himself up," Stacy said. "He can't run on his record and win. People counted Sharron out during the primary, but we proved them wrong. Do not count Sharron Angle out now. What this race is really about is the economy."

Nevada has suffered more than other state during the recession. It has a record unemployment rate of 14 percent, the highest in the nation, and record high home foreclosure and bankruptcy rates.

Angle's first and only TV ad in the general election hits Reid on the economy. Stacy said a second commercial has been cut and will air soon, also taking Reid to task for Nevada's dismal standing, becoming the hardest-hit state in the nation during the Senate leader's watch.

But Reid is starting to go toe-to-toe with Angle on economic issues, both by attacking her in TV and radio ads and by having Obama come to Nevada as he did last week to promote Reid and the Democrats' moves to create new jobs and spur private business development.

While Reid helped save the $8.5 billion CityCenter project on the Strip by pressuring banks to continue funding it, Angle has said she would not have interfered, something the senator's campaign points out in its attack ads. Reid also has a positive ad promoting his CityCenter role.

Angle and other fiscally conservative Republicans argue that private enterprises should fail or succeed on their own and government shouldn't choose which industries are "too big to fail."

Since last month, Reid's campaign has managed to make Angle nearly as unpopular as Reid.

According to the latest Mason-Dixon poll, 46 percent of voters have an unfavorable view of Reid and 37 percent have a favorable view of him now. That compares with 52 percent to 35 percent in June.

Angle's unfavorable rating, meanwhile, jumped by double digits -- from 25 percent in early June to 43 percent now -- while her favorable rating is now 33 percent compared with 38 percent last month.

"I was surprised how quickly and how effectively the Reid campaign came out against her after the primary," said Eric Herzik, political science professor at the University of Nevada, Reno. "I think Angle got caught off guard. Harry Reid didn't give her any breathing time, so she got defined as 'wacky Sharron.' "

As a result, Angle lost support across the board in July compared with early June:

■ Among men, Angle fell from 50 percent support to 41 percent now.

■ Among women, 38 percent to 33 percent.

■ Among Democrats, 12 percent to 8 percent.

■ Among Republicans, 81 percent to 70 percent.

■ Among independents, 41 percent to 35 percent.

■ Among Clark County voters, 37 percent to 32 percent.

■ And among Washoe County voters, 51 percent to 34 percent.

Reid's support ticked up a bit among all those groups except nonpartisans, with his backing holding steady at 37 percent now compared with 37 percent in the June 1-3 survey.

The Democratic incumbent, whose base of support is Southern Nevada, saw his numbers shoot up by double digits in Washoe County -- from 32 percent to 45 percent -- which should jolt Angle, whose base is Northern and rural Nevada, which remains strongly for her and against Reid.

Herzik said the new Mason-Dixon poll findings show how effective Reid's general election strategy has been, and now the question is "how well does Angle respond."

In Angle's previous close elections, Herzik said the grass-roots campaigner has usually finished strong, including when she nearly beat Rep. Dean Heller in 2006 and won the GOP primary this year.

"She needs to come up with a response that levels the playing field," Herzik said. "We've seen that Harry's Part 1 was pretty effective" in his general election campaign. "What is Harry's Part 2? What's the next thing he can use to promote his campaign and really bring down Sharron Angle?"

Social Security doesn't seem to be a winning issue for either camp because voters are so divided on it.

According to the Mason-Dixon poll, 46 percent think that allowing investment in private accounts "is too financially risky" and the current system should be left alone, which endorses Reid's position. But 41 percent agree that young workers should be allowed to "opt out" of Social Security "as long as those who have already paid into the Social Security system receive their benefits as promised," which is what Angle proposes. Another 13 percent were not sure.

Angle has said her focus will be "the economy, the economy, the economy," arguing federal government should create a low-tax, low-regulation, business-friendly environment to create jobs.

Reid's camp seems intent on highlighting his work to bring clean-energy jobs to Nevada and intent on continuing to portray Angle as out of step and out of the mainstream.

Herzik said voters should expect an "October surprise," including some sort of positive economic announcement that Obama and Reid can make to help put him over the top to victory.

In the end, Reid himself has long said he doesn't need to raise his support too much higher to win because voters will face nine choices on the splintered ballot: Reid, Angle, four nonpartisan candidates, one Independent American Party contender, one Tea Party of Nevada candidate and "none."

Contact Laura Myers at lmyers@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2919.

[Kahuna]

Another major problem in this race stems from the Republican primary whereby Reid destroyed Sue Lowden with 527 ads. Lowden has done nothing that I know of to support Angle since June 8th. The undecided and “none of above” vote will swing toward Angle if the Republican base gets their act together. Harry will top out at about 43% plus 3% fraud. Sharron can get to 49 to 50% with an effective counter attack IMO.

[AFPhys]

It now seems that this race will be the acid test for the viability of “T.E.A. Party” ideas of smaller government.

I know people will call “foul” about this poll, but I will take it on its face. If Angle is unable to defeat Reid here, it will really call into question whether America will be able to halt the stream of socialism.

[GOPRaleigh]

If you are a mult-term incumbant and you cannot move off 44% against a relative unknown then you are in trouble. BIG trouble.

[ScottinVA]

Disturbing but not surprising. Reid and the dems own the media, and they’ve been pounding Angle non-stop. I had some hope for this one, but it looks like the dems’ machinery is taking control of this race.

Beating Reid was always going to be an uphill climb, considering his massive base of union and illegal alien support, in addition to a VERY dem-friendly media.

[rwilson99]

You get it... the rule of the incumbent... if you have all the name recognition you can and you’re not at 50% or darn close... the challenger has no where to go but up.

[moose2004]

Rasmussen has Angle +3 during the same time period, in addition, Mason Dixon wasn’t even close in their polling on the 2009 Va Gov race, Ras and Survey USA were right on the money.

[ladyvet]

Anyone in Nevada can clue us in to what’s going on out there?

Las Vegas and Reno. Those of us in the rest of the state are outvoted. It's no different across the rest of the land. The libs are like locus, the come, destroy, and move on.

[reagan_fanatic]

This just shows how truly stupid most of the voting public really is

Agreed 1000%

[cranked]

As with Florida and Crist, there must be some seriously idiot-ridden folks in Neveda to have his SORRY ARSE re-elected especially given the utter BS they have shoved down our collective throats in the past year and a half.... =.=

[Titus Quinctius Cincinnatus]

Only Republicans could screw up this election year.

How exactly do you think this has anything to do with "Republicans screwing up"? How so?

Stuff it with the independent nonsense. It's independents who'd rather criticise the GOP than help make sure that conservative GOPers win who will be the death of us all.

[Kahuna]

This race is not over by any means. Unlike previous years, the likely voters are highly motivated. A few months ago 10,000 tea party folks turned out to a rally in Harry’s backyard. The traffic was backed up over 8 miles with concerned citizens that never made it to the rally. Nothing has changed that dynamic as Nevada’s economy is getting worse by the minute.

[existtoexcel]

article, The phone survey, taken Monday through Wednesday of 625 likely voters in Nevada

Your take, "People that actually work for a living are on vacation and unavailable to answer pollsters."

I think you are right

[DaxtonBrown]

"Harry has effectively painted Sharron as a total whack job with ads that air every few minutes."

As I've told everyone who said the campaign by Sharron Angle is in the bag, Reid is one vicious son of a bitch and won't go down without a fight. I used to work for a Dem political consultant and I know how dirty the game is played. Fortunately, I have written a book which exposes Reid's bribe taking and crooked politics, but we need to take it to the national level (Rush, Hannity, Beck).

You can look it up on Amazon.com under Daxton Brown, or here is a direct link where I make a little more money. I'm self funded and out on a limb with this without a net, so Freeper help is appreciated.

If you saw the movie Casino, this expands on that story to cover Harry sending his campaign manager to pick up money from pimp Joe Conforte at the Mustang Ranch, to land deals and the recent shakedown of bankers to fund CityCenter (and pay off Dubai World and Stanley Ho the Macao pimp and gambler). The book is filled with Harry's dirt, now we just need to get it to a national level.

[ScottinVA]

If you are a mult-term incumbant and you cannot move off 44% against a relative unknown then you are in trouble. BIG trouble.

Yes, but when your opponent is steadily losing support and has dropped below 40% in support, you're in less trouble than your opponent.

[RockinRight]

Put another way, this was around the time in 2008 that McCain was leading Obama and it looked like he’d win.

We know how that worked out.

That said, I’m worried about Angle. I’m not concerned about her views (I think they’re mostly right-on) but more how those views will be spun by Reid. That plus the fact that Angle seems to not quite be up to the task of taking on a guy like Dingy Harry.

Hopefully she can pull it off.

Few conservatives who could actually get the nomination for a major seat are truly “too extreme” to win in a state like Nevada (MA or MD would be a different story) - it’s how they market themselves (and respond to attacks from the liberal opponent) that makes all the difference.

[ScottinVA]

This race is not over by any means.

True, but the drain circling is beginning, and Angle has to kick it up if she's to have any chance at all. The fact Nevada's economy is getting worse by the minute doesn't seem to be helping her much. Reid said he was going to run on his "experience and clout," and it seems to be working.

[sam_paine]

I've never seen people as riled as they are now. People I've known for 30 years who haven't ever been remotely interested in politics are riled beyond belief.

Agreed. Me too. But they're the crust. I wonder about the mushy middle.

I've got a few (older) people who've got me on a cc list that send 5-6 emails a day from Beck's site or youtube something or other, or the urban legends with crazy fonts and stuff.

There are probably 40 people on those lists, and I wonder what those other people think. The mushy middle.

I know all the stuff before that guy sends it. I can comment intelligently and reply with corrections etc.

The other people may be mystified...or bored and ignore it.

Anyway, suppose this guy is as riled up and involved in politics as ever.

Suppose these mushy people are watching from the sideline.

Suppose they ALL go vote the Dems out....but that the Dems "barely win" through Florida 2000 redux.

Then what?

Some think revolt. I think recede.

The emailer will be heartbroken. And may fight on.

The mushy middle will just relent. If not, then why don't they comment now? I think the people you see active are one thing. The people who email are another. and the people who do not care do now show.

I don't think 44 - 37 now indicates that there are enough people who care one way or the other.

[moose2004]

Do you remember this poll? Other polls around the same time showed Bob with a larger lead than 8. Bob won by 18 points:

http://www2.newsadvance.com/lna/news/local/article/mason-dixon_poll_mcdonnell_up_by_8_points_over_deeds/20278/

[GOPRaleigh]

Please take this right way - I am not being confrontational at all. Reid needs to be over 50% right now. That is critical for him. He is in HUGE trouble. This poll is a disaster for him. Pay no attention to the trees - look at the forest.

[Forty-Niner]

“Like the man says,

If voting really meant anything they wouldn’t let us do it.”

LOLOLOL The voting they don’t mind.....it’s the counting they don’t want us to do!