Posted on 03/10/2010 12:06:55 AM PST by SmokingJoe
ARROYO GRANDE, Calif. (MarketWatch) -- "One of the disturbing facts of history is that so many civilizations collapse," warns anthropologist Jared Diamond in "Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed." Many "civilizations share a sharp curve of decline. Indeed, a society's demise may begin only a decade or two after it reaches its peak population, wealth and power."
Now, Harvard's Niall Ferguson, one of the world's leading financial historians, echoes Diamond's warning: "Imperial collapse may come much more suddenly than many historians imagine. A combination of fiscal deficits and military overstretch suggests that the United States may be the next empire on the precipice." Yes, America is on the edge.
Dismiss his warning at your peril. Everything you learned, everything you believe and everything driving our political leaders is based on a misleading, outdated theory of history. The American Empire is at the edge of a dangerous precipice, at risk of a sudden, rapid collapse.
Ferguson is brilliant, prolific and contrarian. His works include the recent "Ascent of Money: A Financial History of the World;" "The Cash Nexus: Money and Power in the Modern World;" "Colossus: The Rise and Fall of The American Empire;" and "The War of the World," a survey of the "savagery of the 20th century" where he highlights a profound "paradox that, though the 20th century was 'so bloody,' it was also 'a time of unparalleled progress.'"
Why? Throughout history imperial leaders inevitably emerge and drive their nations into wars for greater glory and "economic progress," while inevitably leading their nation into collapse. And that happens suddenly and swiftly, within "a decade or two."
(Excerpt) Read more at marketwatch.com ...
I don’t think any civilization is immortal but I think the U.S.’s greatest asset is her people - at least the 48% who did not vote for Obama.
That’s about 61 million of us. That’s a lot of people who get it. I think we can keep the Republic going.
I used to think this kind of stuff was hyperbole, but when you’re headed for 94% GDP to debt ratio, you have to wonder.
So is this the $20 version of saying "It's Bush's Fault"?
I agree that we are fighting for the very survival of our country and our freedom.
I also think that we are heading towards CW2, but it will take a much different form than Part One did.
Must get some sleep. Been doing tax returns and I’m tired and not in a good mood. Will pick up on this discussion in a few hours.
Pray for our Republic.
Still remember my Dad bringing home an article for Newsweak entitled “the end of the American empire”,that the Japanese will buy off cities, make most of our cars, the Russians will raid the countryside...the year was around 1986. Just like every week for the past 20 years that North korea will invade Sokor, no matter the times, it’s the same ole headlines.
Kevin Phillips, political historian and former Nixon strategist, also captured this inevitable tendency in Wealth and Democracy: "Most great nations, at the peak of their economic power, become arrogant and wage great world wars at great cost, wasting vast resources, taking on huge debt, and ultimately burning themselves out."
We sense the "consummation" of the American Empire occurred with the leadership handoff from Bill Clinton to George W. Bush.
The US is certainly not overextending itself militarily, despite what the Left might say. We are overextending ourselves with the social welfare state.
Very interesting, I fear the USA could lose its dominance along with much of our great Sphere of Influence in the coming decades. But, the premise of this OP is wrong because the USA is no Empire. Countries join our Sphere of Influence out of their own willingness, we don’t plunder resources and cheat people. Like Fareed Zakaria said in The Post American World, “the USA has been the creator and sustainer of the current order of open trade and democratic government.”
As long as we don’t take on a protectionist and/or isolationist mentality, the USA will be able to adapt in the 21st century and we will benefit from the vast markets that will spawn out of these emerging markets and growing middle classes. GM sold more cars in China in the USA in 2009! in 2009, HP computers had over a 10% unit share in China and Dell had an 18% market share as China’s computer market stays on pace to become the largest in the World by 2012. In India, the Financial Times is predicting that nuclear energy output will grow from 1700MW up to 470,000 MW in the next 40 years! Some of these markets are going to be so big, our measly sized middle class (relatively speaking to World GDP) will be able to capitalize on all of the demand. I have all the faith in the World that even though the Indians and the Chinese will be copying much of our stuff, the West will still remain the greatest leader in innovation in most fields.
Also, as renewable technology progresses the USA will be more self sustainable.
I'm afraid that it's not a matter of 50% plus to save the nation. It only takes a minority to crash the economy, and the democrats are very skilled at destroying an economy.
as are the republicans.
Debt spree is just another word for bush jr.’s “society of ownership” actually never heard anything more cynical then that titel for a strategy to enslve the people.
Shoot, I think the FR community alone could pull us out.
Not without a lot of pain.
A lot of the “economy” could crash. Offhand I think of the whole Dow Jones system, insurance, banking. . .
and people would suffer and die. But I can’t quite believe we’d be all in. We have too much real wealth as individuals in land, food, gold, equipment, and work ethic.
I suppose when weak we could be invaded. A land war we might win. We are personally heavily armed, and have a willingness to fight. Witness flights that terrorists attempt to take over. Not much luck these days.
A nuclear war perhaps we could not win, if we were all messed up with economic disaster and our military fell apart.
No need for us to be naive, but just to take practical precautions and keep vigilant.
I think so. Later in the article, he comes up with this gem:
“Most great nations, at the peak of their economic power, become arrogant and wage great world wars at great cost, wasting vast resources, taking on huge debt, and ultimately burning themselves out.” We sense the “consummation” of the American Empire occurred with the leadership handoff from Bill Clinton to George W. Bush.”
The guy doesn't even mention the nation crippling trillion dollar debts that 0bama is racking up right now.
Plus the guy is from Glasgow in Scotland (albeit he is a professor at Harvard), which makes me a bit suspicious of his motives. The British in general, and the Scots in particular, are notorious Bush haters.
Nevertheless, I am wondering if this is just another professor engaging in yet another random academic exercise, or he really is worth listening to. I think I have seen this guy on Fox once before in the last 4 weeks. I remember thinking he was a pretty confident, bodering on arrogant, fellow.
What Good Can a Handgun Do Against An Army?
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-backroom/2312894/posts
I suppose when weak we could be invaded. A land war we might win. We are personally heavily armed, and have a willingness to fight. Witness flights that terrorists attempt to take over. Not much luck these days.
A nuclear war perhaps we could not win, if we were all messed up with economic disaster and our military fell apart.
Like you, I am extremely concerned about our debt in comparison to our GDP and savings. Entitlements are the main problem compounded by future unfunded pension/healthcare costs both public and private. You can only live on a credit card for so long!
The only solution that I can see would be to disband entitlements and slash the size of government at all levels. I don’t see any indication from our current leaders that they would do this, therefore, logic says we are headed for very hard times.
I'm afraid I'm going to have to disagree. We have too large a percentage of the population that is too removed from our food supplies. What I mean is, consider the results of gas prices jumping up to $10 per gallon...all of a sudden trucking companies can't afford to transport goods...the most important being food.
It wouldn't take more than a week or two at most of disruption to the food supply to bring cities to their knees and rioting to ensue.
And there are lots of ways for that sort of event to transpire other than just gas prices to rise. You already have a huge number of farmers in CA who can't farm because the state has cut off their water supply in favor of some sort of minnow on the endangered species list.
I don't know that I've ever seen the statistic, but I would bet that an unreasonably high number of Americans are living not much off from paycheck to paycheck.
Death and taxes certain...collapse, not so much =P
Minorities are influential in every direction. It took a whole lot less than 50 percent—more like 30 percent, I believe—to build the nation to begin with. So I guess the question is which minority is going to win.
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