Posted on 11/03/2008 6:23:36 AM PST by Vigilanteman
Pennsylvania is shaping up to be what Florida was in 2000 and Ohio was in 2008. On the morning drive in, I was tuned into our nationally sydicated talk show which broadcasts from Pittsburgh, PA.
He was reading from GOP internal polls. McCain has actually moved into the lead in Pennsylvania (but still within the margin of error) and was only 1% behind in Michigan. Keep working and don't give up!
(Excerpt) Read more at warroom.com ...
Axelrod is feinting all over the place... they’re running ads in AZ for crying out loud. Team McCain’s surge must be working!
Well when you over sample dems by 6-10% that poll normally gives it to the dem.
MI +1 makes absolutely no sense.
You mean they are being selfish? I really think that remark is hurting him. I don't know if he came up with that line on his own or what, but it may cost him.
Right out of Rove’s 2000 campaign handbook when W went to CA late.
It almost cost him the election!
HOw do you know all this? I believe you. Is it idle speculation on your part, part of your own personal research, or are you privy to ‘internals’ that most of us out of the loop aren’t?
ROMNEY
I drove from Tennessee to canvas in western (not West) Virginia. And I can tell you that these folks, often taken for granted, are for the first time being courted. These are the type of people who won’t answer the phone if it’s a poll calling. They’re also not voting early, not a single one of the couple hundred I talked to. I’m convinced they’re all going to make it to the polls. They will win Virginia for McCain, no doubt in my mind.
Carl from Ohio is smoking crack. No way is McCain +12pts in PA.
I hope these aren’t like the last group of polls that were utterly ridiculous like showing McCain behind by 1 in California.
The very last polls I remember hearing before I voted in 2004 were exit polls on the morning of the election. Those early exit polls had Kerry winning by a substantial margin. By the afternoon, even the MSM had realized how flawed these exit polls were.
I do not have privy to internal pollings of either party. I have no connection to either campaign.
My comments here are based on my own analysis of information and observations all of it public, nothing more nothing less.
There are huge fundamental problems with the Fauxbama campaign, particularly in the rust belt states.
5 election cycles in PA, I’ve seen the gammit of politics here, and what I am seeing and what is publicly out there does not lead me to believe for one minute that Fauxbama ever had any legitimate shot at PA.
Here’s what we know, that is undeniable fact. Hillary absolutely pasted him in the primaries, beating him by more votes in the primaries than Kerry or Gore won the state by in the general election. 1.2 Million people voted for Hillary then and Fauxbama has had big problems with those voters here since, on election day all polling and information about them shows that somewhere around 30% of those voters will not vote for Fauxbama.
Pennsylvania is not some bastion of liberal north eastern values, never was. Folks that buy into that are absolutely ignorant about PA. Philly is obviously a liberal city, but the state as a whole is not NE, its mid atlantic/midwest in its values and principles.
PA has been trending R for quite a while now, any D was going to have trouble with PA, and the only way PA has stayed D in the last few cycles was by a completely solid D base and a state machine firing on all cylinders for the D. And then only be squeakers. Fauxbama has neither of these.
In every other election cycle I could go into the white lower class neighborhoods in and around Pittsburgh and talk to the people and see the support for the D, the union workers, the plumbers, the roofers, etc. Its not there this year, it just isn’t.
Kerry took PA by 144kish, Gore by 205kish. Of those margins Kerry got 110kish of that margin out of Pittsburgh, Erie and one more Pittsburgh suburban county. He came out of Philly area with about 520/550kish margin, added another 110kish out in those counties.. that’s 650kish margin out of a few places, and held on to only 140k at the end. Fauxbama does not have kerry level support.
Fauxbama’s attacks on Joe the Plumber and Sara Palin were absolutely politically tone deaf for someone who needs the rust belt. Mocking the working class is very very stupid. 14% of all PA residents are veterans, and many of them are democrats, but many of them won’t pull the lever for Fauxbama. There is a concerted and vocal amount of democrats who will be breaking party, not just the PUMA’s angry over Hillary but general rank and file D’s who are not going to vote for this guy.
Democrats for McCain isn’t a joke or finding the 1 sole person, its truly happening and by a much bigger margin than anyone is capturing in their polling.
Everyone always grabs onto the registration differencials and think that means PA must be a died in the wool liberal state, its not, not hardly. Democrats here are democrats because their families have always been democratics, not because they buy into Pelosi and Reid et al. In fact outside of Philly PA is one of the more conservative states you will find in terms of social values of the people on the street. Now I don’t say that lightly or as someone from liberal NE who came here, I say that as someone who grew up in NC in the 70s and 80s.
PA voters are pro gun, pro life, pro america and pro God, and not in that order. This slickster from chicago has no appeal outside the black neighborhoods and liberal UMC nieghborhoods. He’ll get votes because any D will get votes, but he’s not going to carry the state, the support just isn’t there for the guy. His campaign has banked on carrying PHilly to carry the state, and he’s not going to do it. He’ll carry philly, but the margins will not be enough to overcome the lower support he’s got through the rest of the state.
I saw a poll yesterday were 9 in 10 think McCain will lose.
Pretty darn good odds he will lose with that perception in the public.
We can win this, but it will be close. A win would be a miracle. Everything is going against us.
Michigan is a tough state. That announcement made McCain look weak. People need to study John Engler if they want to know how to win here. He ran his campaign like a union steward.
Michigan is a tough state. That announcement made McCain look weak. People need to study John Engler if they want to know how to win here. He ran his campaign like a union steward.
ping
Yes, but the point is, the same pollsters showing an Obama win showed a McCain win in 2004.
They are oversampling Dems. But, you know what, they did in 2004 and most showed Bush ahead, NOT BEHIND.
Close, but still ahead.
The fact that not one poll has McCain ahead should be worrisome.
Not ONE.
Now, they could be oversampling it so bad this time McCain is actually ahead. But, I would not bet even a cent on that being the case.
TURNOUT IS KEY. WE MUST GET TO THE POLLS TO WIN THIS.
And we can. I am NOT here to say we will lose this.
We can and I am confident if we turn out, we WILL WIN THIS!
But, we have GOT to be realistic and stop believing pie-in-the-sky nonsense about us being only a couple points down in NJ. Come on!
We have got to be realistic that not every poll is out to get us. Even TIPP has Obama ahead.
If we can’t even get a lead in TIPP, that should be a worry!
“The morning after the election Kerry called all 88 Ohio county boards of elections. They told him his 250 thousand new Democrat voters that had been registered in 2004, had in fact, not voted. It was then that he at long last conceded to Bush.”
Great summation...thanks.
Quick question. How will this work in Ohio this year with a very liberal election lady compared to Ken Blackwell a conservative last time?
If we pulled Michigan out...I will donate a weeks pay to FR.
Good point.
We have got to get with reality here. This is NOT a good environment for the GOP, and the 2004 polls were mostly RIGHT. Same in 2006. Mostly RIGHT predicting Dem wins.
THIS NONSENSE THAT ALL THE POLLS WERE OFF IN 2004 NEEDS TO BE SHOT DOWN AND ENDED. Most had Bush ahead at this point. Guess what...he won, just like the polls said. By a bigger margin than some showed at that.
The same could happen this time in reverse....O winning bigger. Or perhaps McCain winning bigger, but we have got to face reality that the polls still show McCain BEHIND, not AHEAD, just like they showed Bush AHEAD in 2004 and proved to be correct.
I believe they are oversampling Dems, but the question is...are they oversampling so much that McCain is actually AHEAD? The legit GOP internals (not this crap post) have good news for us. We are within striking distance, and we can win PA.
Frankly, the question will be how off the Dem oversampling is. If we turn out in equal numbers to the Dems or even slightly behind, we CAN and WILL win this.
But, if the turnout model is correct projecting major Dem advantage, we won’t. The polls have been wrong, but for them ALL to be wrong and McCain to win this would be historic and frankly, unprecedented.
As much as I want him to win, it is going to be TOUGH. EVERY SINGLE POLL JUST CAN’T BE WRONG.
We can’t even win in TIPP for crying out loud.
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