I do not have privy to internal pollings of either party. I have no connection to either campaign.
My comments here are based on my own analysis of information and observations all of it public, nothing more nothing less.
There are huge fundamental problems with the Fauxbama campaign, particularly in the rust belt states.
5 election cycles in PA, I’ve seen the gammit of politics here, and what I am seeing and what is publicly out there does not lead me to believe for one minute that Fauxbama ever had any legitimate shot at PA.
Here’s what we know, that is undeniable fact. Hillary absolutely pasted him in the primaries, beating him by more votes in the primaries than Kerry or Gore won the state by in the general election. 1.2 Million people voted for Hillary then and Fauxbama has had big problems with those voters here since, on election day all polling and information about them shows that somewhere around 30% of those voters will not vote for Fauxbama.
Pennsylvania is not some bastion of liberal north eastern values, never was. Folks that buy into that are absolutely ignorant about PA. Philly is obviously a liberal city, but the state as a whole is not NE, its mid atlantic/midwest in its values and principles.
PA has been trending R for quite a while now, any D was going to have trouble with PA, and the only way PA has stayed D in the last few cycles was by a completely solid D base and a state machine firing on all cylinders for the D. And then only be squeakers. Fauxbama has neither of these.
In every other election cycle I could go into the white lower class neighborhoods in and around Pittsburgh and talk to the people and see the support for the D, the union workers, the plumbers, the roofers, etc. Its not there this year, it just isn’t.
Kerry took PA by 144kish, Gore by 205kish. Of those margins Kerry got 110kish of that margin out of Pittsburgh, Erie and one more Pittsburgh suburban county. He came out of Philly area with about 520/550kish margin, added another 110kish out in those counties.. that’s 650kish margin out of a few places, and held on to only 140k at the end. Fauxbama does not have kerry level support.
Fauxbama’s attacks on Joe the Plumber and Sara Palin were absolutely politically tone deaf for someone who needs the rust belt. Mocking the working class is very very stupid. 14% of all PA residents are veterans, and many of them are democrats, but many of them won’t pull the lever for Fauxbama. There is a concerted and vocal amount of democrats who will be breaking party, not just the PUMA’s angry over Hillary but general rank and file D’s who are not going to vote for this guy.
Democrats for McCain isn’t a joke or finding the 1 sole person, its truly happening and by a much bigger margin than anyone is capturing in their polling.
Everyone always grabs onto the registration differencials and think that means PA must be a died in the wool liberal state, its not, not hardly. Democrats here are democrats because their families have always been democratics, not because they buy into Pelosi and Reid et al. In fact outside of Philly PA is one of the more conservative states you will find in terms of social values of the people on the street. Now I don’t say that lightly or as someone from liberal NE who came here, I say that as someone who grew up in NC in the 70s and 80s.
PA voters are pro gun, pro life, pro america and pro God, and not in that order. This slickster from chicago has no appeal outside the black neighborhoods and liberal UMC nieghborhoods. He’ll get votes because any D will get votes, but he’s not going to carry the state, the support just isn’t there for the guy. His campaign has banked on carrying PHilly to carry the state, and he’s not going to do it. He’ll carry philly, but the margins will not be enough to overcome the lower support he’s got through the rest of the state.
I had a great time talking up McCain and talking down Obama while I was there. The thing that seemed to make the greatest impression was when I told them about Obama's repulsive no-child-born-alive position.
The level of enthusiasm was obviously high, as we all waited for hours standing on cement (no chairs) and the only people who left were the fainters.
As for McCain, he was genuinely stoked for the event, as were Cindy and Lindsay Graham, who spoke first. Mac hit Obama hard on taxes, made special appeals to the vets in the crowd (we were legion!!!), and entertained the crowd with his obvious enthusiasm. He spoke for a good 20 minutes, and had the crowd going wild as he built to his finale -- "Stand up ... stand up and fight with me." WOW!!!!!
Don't know enough about PA to compare his warm reception in Perkasie to the rest of PA, though my friend (originally from SW Virginia) says that McCain is doing well in the county because he has name recognition and people feel comfortable with him, and because Obama is really an unknown quantity.
Thanks again for your post. It confirms much a what I experienced.