Good point.
We have got to get with reality here. This is NOT a good environment for the GOP, and the 2004 polls were mostly RIGHT. Same in 2006. Mostly RIGHT predicting Dem wins.
THIS NONSENSE THAT ALL THE POLLS WERE OFF IN 2004 NEEDS TO BE SHOT DOWN AND ENDED. Most had Bush ahead at this point. Guess what...he won, just like the polls said. By a bigger margin than some showed at that.
The same could happen this time in reverse....O winning bigger. Or perhaps McCain winning bigger, but we have got to face reality that the polls still show McCain BEHIND, not AHEAD, just like they showed Bush AHEAD in 2004 and proved to be correct.
I believe they are oversampling Dems, but the question is...are they oversampling so much that McCain is actually AHEAD? The legit GOP internals (not this crap post) have good news for us. We are within striking distance, and we can win PA.
Frankly, the question will be how off the Dem oversampling is. If we turn out in equal numbers to the Dems or even slightly behind, we CAN and WILL win this.
But, if the turnout model is correct projecting major Dem advantage, we won’t. The polls have been wrong, but for them ALL to be wrong and McCain to win this would be historic and frankly, unprecedented.
As much as I want him to win, it is going to be TOUGH. EVERY SINGLE POLL JUST CAN’T BE WRONG.
We can’t even win in TIPP for crying out loud.
Not really. 1948, 1994 and (IIRC) 1980.
I'm not saying we have this in the bag...we need to turn out in droves...but the polls are so screwed up this year this year that I will still consider them all to be crap even if Obama wins. It's as if someone predicted the Fannie and Freddie mess using chicken entrails.