Posted on 10/16/2008 12:27:03 PM PDT by wm_tate
Today's results show Obama with a two-point advantage over McCain using this likely voter model, 49% to 47%, this is within the poll's margin of error
(Excerpt) Read more at gallup.com ...
Surprised? It's a figure you probably won't see reported elsewhere. That's because Gallup's news release, and the story picked up in the media, highlights the wider margin among all TOTAL registered voters ... not people whom Gallup's historical methods indicate are actually likely to vote. It's as if whether people are actually going to vote is unimportant to the election results. Not coincidentally, those total-registered-voter numbers give Obama a wider 6% margin.
Current polls showing a wide Obama advantage are of this less consequential overall registered voters, not of the vital likely voter figures. (With the exception of the outlyer CBS/NYT poll, which doesn't bother asking whether respondents are likely to vote. They simply extrapolate that figure from the total registered voters.) Polls which show a tight race tend to be of likely voters.
The difference is not inconsequential. Studies show that polls can create a bandwagon effect as people want to associate with the winner, and that could alter the outcome of this election.
It is important that we demand that the media identify, not just the poll total, but whether that total is from people who are likely to vote.
-William Tate, www.atimelikethis.us
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
Is this Hugh?
LOL, I first mis-read this as:
this is within the poll's margin of terror
McCain’s anemic attempts to fight Obama back is losing this election.
Flood McCain out with emails. DEMAND he fight back HARD- name names!
Flood the MSM out with emails. Send articles/videos and demand they put these before the voting public.
We WON’T be silenced by Obama gestapo thugs.
Please go to
http://www.protestthemedia.com/viewtopic.php?f=19&t=7
and pick up all the email addresses to the McCain camp and HUNDREDS of emails of MSM.
CAN THEY IGNORE A MILLION EMAILS?
BTTT
Gallop had O up by 11-14 over the weekend.
Let Obama think he’s ahead, and then on Nov. 5 he can cry about how the Republicans stole the election...again.
Dead heat, do your part, convince everybody you know to NOT vote for Obama.
Obama has a history of being a poor closer.
He didn't look mediocre in last night's debate. Hopefully, despite the dumb MSM comments after, the debate could be a real game-changer.
It could be hue.
This is Hugh and series!
I might even be able to stand sobering up if this continues...
Add in the “race” factor and McCain is probably up by 4%.
Despite what the media and the elites want you to believe, this thing isn’t over by a long shot. Although, that’s precisely what they want you to believe so that you will stay home. Just think how satisfying it would be to jam this thing right down their elitist throats on election day.
People get to see what he'd be like if he really did win.
Is this pre or post debate?
LOL
As far as I know, these were pre-debate numbers. If so, it’s starting to look very good for our side.
*CLICKITY CLICK CLICKITY*..race card
..(shuuuuush within a week:) It’s the race thing,he’s black thats why, see see, America’s not ready, see see,....why there’s gonna be rioting in the streets!
get ready folks, it’s gonna come, you know it, I know it.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.