Surprised? It's a figure you probably won't see reported elsewhere. That's because Gallup's news release, and the story picked up in the media, highlights the wider margin among all TOTAL registered voters ... not people whom Gallup's historical methods indicate are actually likely to vote. It's as if whether people are actually going to vote is unimportant to the election results. Not coincidentally, those total-registered-voter numbers give Obama a wider 6% margin.
Current polls showing a wide Obama advantage are of this less consequential overall registered voters, not of the vital likely voter figures. (With the exception of the outlyer CBS/NYT poll, which doesn't bother asking whether respondents are likely to vote. They simply extrapolate that figure from the total registered voters.) Polls which show a tight race tend to be of likely voters.
The difference is not inconsequential. Studies show that polls can create a bandwagon effect as people want to associate with the winner, and that could alter the outcome of this election.
It is important that we demand that the media identify, not just the poll total, but whether that total is from people who are likely to vote.
-William Tate, www.atimelikethis.us
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
Is this Hugh?
LOL, I first mis-read this as:
this is within the poll's margin of terror
BTTT
Gallop had O up by 11-14 over the weekend.
Let Obama think he’s ahead, and then on Nov. 5 he can cry about how the Republicans stole the election...again.
Dead heat, do your part, convince everybody you know to NOT vote for Obama.
Add in the “race” factor and McCain is probably up by 4%.
Despite what the media and the elites want you to believe, this thing isn’t over by a long shot. Although, that’s precisely what they want you to believe so that you will stay home. Just think how satisfying it would be to jam this thing right down their elitist throats on election day.
Is this pre or post debate?
*CLICKITY CLICK CLICKITY*..race card
..(shuuuuush within a week:) It’s the race thing,he’s black thats why, see see, America’s not ready, see see,....why there’s gonna be rioting in the streets!
get ready folks, it’s gonna come, you know it, I know it.
Gallup: McCain closes to with 2%
Even with rampant voter fraud on the part of Democrats, like in 2000, and like what they are doing now, they can’t win with the polls showing a 2 point spread. If McCain can get Sarah out front and center, he can win.
The “Comeback Kid”
Maybe all the “pundits” including the ones on Fox last night didn’t see what the actual voters saw.
1) Joe the Plumber is a mainstream working American
2) Senator Government slip was priceless
3) His economic “spread the wealth” plan got shredded
4) His Bill Ayers answer was lame - McCain said Hillary asked the same questions he was asking.
5) Obama fumbled the education question on Vouchers
6) McCain had him on his heels all night - he was constantly responding to legitimate attacks.
All the “pundits” saw was “boy, is the man-child smooth”
I heard a report today that Obama and the MSM are going after Joe the Plumber. He had to tell them why he doesn’t have a plumbing license, “I don’t need one because I work for someone who does.”
bmflr
Was this poll pre-Joe the Plumber? ;-)
Avg American Joe and Sarah must be driving the Obama campaign crazy. LOL!
Ignore the polls but Obama’s fantasy 15 point leads seem to be evaporating. The MSM and UK/foreign media will be screaming racism and theft when McCain beats Obama by +5 election day.
Work, volunteer and donate to McCain-PALIN 2008. We are not taking any chances with the commie.
3 posts into this thread which should be joyful and I see the usual doom and gloom posters.
They must be tweaking these numbers like crazy, or their models are seriously hosed down and have no anchor in reality.