Posted on 10/15/2008 1:00:35 PM PDT by americanophile
US pollsters today put John McCain's chances of overtaking Barack Obama in the final weeks to win the White House as extremely remote given the leads he has built up, the most recent putting him a staggering 14% ahead.
Polling experts expect the gap between the two to narrow as election day, November 4, draws closer, and some caution against a landslide win for Obama. But they regard the contest as effectively over barring some dramatic national security crisis.
"You are more likely to be killed by a meteor dropping on your head than McCain becoming president," said Professor Michael McDonald, who specialises in polls and election number-crunching at Virginia's George Mason University.
Pollsters said no US candidate has ever been as far behind as McCain at this stage in an election in recent political history and won. Once the electorate shifts in favour of a candidate, as it seems to have done over the last few weeks, it seldom moves again, they said.
Doug Usher, who was a pollster for John Kerry in his failed bid against President George Bush in 2004, is more cautious than many of his colleagues. He predicted a tightening of the race - especially since the instinct of the average US voter tends to be conservative - and that the US media would inevitably at some point write about an incredible McCain comeback.
Even so, Usher, who works for Washington, DC-based Widmeyer Communications, described McCain's chances of winning as possible but "incredibly remote". "There is only a one in 10 chance that McCain could overtake Obama. I think Obama is going to win but not by a landslide." Like other pollsters, he warned that some unexpected event could change the race: "What is endlessly fascinating about US politics, you...
(Excerpt) Read more at guardian.co.uk ...
We’ll just see about that. The REAL poll is on November 4.
This might be a schaudenfraude thread post-election.”
*******
Yep, this is one that should be marked.
timely post. me included.
Well, thats it! I’m staying home on election day! It’s hopeless...we’re doomed! OOPS! I already voted absentee McCain/Palin/Gilmore/Goode and sent it in. Too late for me to not vote. Now, I have to liive with the consequences... (:+0
Ahem, Professor. You have seriously miscalulated the degree of in the USA. Obama doesn't have a prayer, regardless of what you think in your ivory tower. I stress ivory.
< /sarcasm>
exactly... if he had a 14 point advantage, PA, VA, FL, OH, NC, NV would be off the table... he would be up more than 8 points in NJ... he would be up more than 2 in PA... think of the Pygmalion Effect... only in the opposite direction...
or
When you want BS, CBS.
Setting up for the riots...
If you thought the “Americans are stupid” headlines were bad from Bush being elected and re-elected, just wait!!
The only polls that matter are the campaign’s internal polls.
The public polls are for entertanment purposes only.
>>You want to know the last time a democrat got over 50% of the vote in a 2 way race? Carter in 1976 when he got 50.1% after blowing a 30 point lead. And had Ford not gaffed in the debate, Carter would have lost.<<
Yes but the stock market didn’t crash until after Carter was elected. It’s not McCain’s fault but it’s his political albatross.
This has been such a strange election, I won’t be surprised if something unexpected occurs.
Actually, I thought that overall, Ford won that debate, but perception was different, thanks to you-know-who.
It is already happening. The weight of the scandals on Hussein are mounting and working.
1. Daily reports of voter fraud by ACORN
2. William Ayers is sticking
3. Rezcko is beginning to stick
4. Laysuits about his citizenship and whether his DQ’ed from being POTUS
5. His economic policies don’t make sence (i.e. Socalist)
6. This world is dangerous and he has ties with terrorists
7. Radical stance on abortion
8. Odinga story will stick since 1-7 are.
These are all adding up. I noticed it beginning around this weekend. The weight is beginning to be felt by Hussein. Day by Day. It will cause most people to question Hussein.
IMO the “Whitey” tape will be released by a 527 group in about 10 days. That will most certainly bring out ALL conservatives, republicans, rinos, independents, PUMA’s and turn-off dems out against Hussein. You don’t have to worry about the MSM suppressing our vote then.
If they really believe this (which they dont) there will be quite a few befuddled pollsters drooling on themselves as they jump out windows after the election.
Obama is going to loose, they know it but then again the libs never loose do they? The republicans always steal it from them in some way.
If they're happy with it, so am I. Charlie Brown is starting to believe this time he gets to kick the ball.
>>When an Obamabot came to my door and asked who I was voting for I said Obama. I shut the door and laughed. Fools<<
When I said I would not vote for BO, they said, “We didn’t know you were a Republican. Sorry to bother you.” I replied that I wasn’t a R, meaning that the R had gone too far left for me, but they probably thought that meant something else.
LOL Exactly. I would say they should really be worried.
I think they get it off a dart board.
This will be a blessing in disguise for us. Now, Sarah will pump up the crowd to come out and vote. The liberals and students on the coasts will go to sleep thinking it is already over. That will make the difference. McPalin are “comeback kids”
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