Posted on 10/04/2008 10:03:21 AM PDT by jveritas
Below is a polling accuracy report card showing the accuracy of the polling firms were in the 2008 primaries all the way up to North Carolina and Indiana primaries. Rasmussen ranks number 20.
State by state on the presidential election. Ras was horrible in 2000 too.
So, I guess it’s all a crap shoot, huh?
No, I am not confusing them and I don’t make things up.
100% accuracy with a margin of error based upon voter fraud.
Well you are dead in the water wrong sir.
Battleground States 2004
Rasmussen’s Final Poll / Actual Result / Difference
Fla, Bush +3 / Bush +5, Diff 2
Ohio, Bush +4 / Bush +2.5, Diff 1.5
PA, Kerry +2 / Kerry +2.5, Diff 0.5
Wisc, Kerry +1 / Kerry +0.4, Diff 0.6
Iowa, Bush +2 / Bush +0.7, Diff 1.3
Minn, Kerry +1 / Kerry +3.5, Diff 2.5
Mich, Kerry +4 / Kerry +3.4, Diff 0.6
MO, Bush +5 / Kerry +7.2, Diff 2.2
NM, Bush +4 / Bush +0.8, Diff 3.2
Nev, Bush +2 / Bush +2.6, Diff 0.6
Colo, Bush +5 / Bush +4.7, Diff 0.3
NH, Kerry +2 / Kerry +1.3, Diff 0.7
Average Difference 1.33
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry_sbys.html
Now how in the hell does a liar like you respond when you are confronted with the solid gold facts?
Typo.. Missouri Bush +7.2, Diff 2.2
I could do better than Gallup or CBS by reading the graffiti on a bathroom wall. What other industry (besides baseball) allows you a 10 percent margin of error and still pays you big bucks?
I am in the zogby poll. I tell them I am a democrat, union member, do not own a gun, do not consider myself in the "investment class", voted for kerry in 2004, and every other question to make me look like a democrat.
I've been telling them for months that I was voting for Obama.
I plan to start telling them Mccain next week.
This will maximize my effect on the poll. I'll get more weight as a democrat.
Look skippy, before you start calling people liars maybe you should try and pay attention. You can’t just pick the states you like. The average would be for ALL his final poll data.
How about his final poll for Alabama: His final poll said President Bush would win with 53% of the vote, Bush won with 63% of the vote. That is 10 points off. Get it?
Like I said in my post...He called every state correctly, SURVEY USA had a better average.
“Not really. It is only tough if you use weighting for your models. SurveyUSA does true random samples and does not weight by party or demographics. This is why movement is picked up by their surveys and seem in my opinion to be most trusted..even when I don’t like..”
***
That whole “Party ID weighting” gambit
is beloved by all the pros, but also provides
a loophole big enough to drive an opinion thru
... for any pollster so inclined to mold opinion
rather than simply report it.
Pollsters are welcome to report their Margins Of Error as what formal statistics suggests ... “+/- 3%” and the like.
The informed user would do better to apply
actual empirical results like those posted, for each separate poll.
When all eyes turn to Ohio on Election night, the only poll to pay attention to will be the University of Cincinnati poll, in my opinion.
Here’s a sampling of their recent work:
2004 Presidential race:
Final University of Cincinnati poll (10/27-10/31)
50.1% Bush
49.2% Kerry
Actual election results
50.82% Bush
48.71% Kerry
2006 U.S. Senate
Final University of Cincinnati Poll (11/01-11/05)
56% Brown
44% DeWine
Actual election results
56% Brown
44% DeWine
2008 Ohio Democratic Primary
51% Clinton
42% Obama
Actual election results
54% Clinton
44% Obama
“What other industry (besides baseball) allows you a 10 percent margin of error and still pays you big bucks?”
Apparently investment banking and hedge fund managing fall nicely into you range of error.
Many of his final predictions were off because he underestimated the portion of the vote President Bush would receive. Here are some in the states Bush won.
His final poll for Virgina showed Bush with 50%, Bush won with 54%. Missouri 50%, Bush won 53%. Colorado 50, Bush won 52%, Alabama 53, Bush won 63%. North Carolina 50%, Bush won 53%. Georgia 54, Bush won 58%. South Carolina 55%. Bush won 58%.
So, did Ras under poll the Republicans? Was our turnout better than expected? What do you think?
Note: Rasmussen increased the Democrats in his sample for this election.
Please see post # 27 as an example of people on our side who like to screw up with polls and pollsters. They think that they are cool in doing so.
The avg error even softens the range. Some were likely off 10-15% during the primaries. Ignore the polls remember Kerry/Gore.
Pray for W, McCuda and Our Troops
“I scanned through the SurveyUSA presidential polls and it looks like the majority of Obama’s supporters are boomers age 55-64. The sixties strike again!”
I don’t think so, both Governor Palin and Senator Obama are boomers themselves, and just as the boomer’s voted for Nixon over McGovern, they will vote for McCain Palin.
http://www.cookpolitical.com/node/2283
“Combing through cross-tabulations of three months of Cook Political Report/RT Strategies polls, taken April 17-20, May 29-31, and June 12-15 and involving a total of 2,484 registered voters (margin of error +/-2 percent), the overall trial heat showed Obama ahead by 2 points, 44 percent to 42 percent. But focusing exclusively on the 1,832 whites in the sample revealed something interesting, even allowing for the fact that Lyndon Johnson in 1964 was the last Democratic presidential candidate to win even a plurality of the white vote.
Obama trailed McCain by 9 points among both 18-to-34-year-old white voters and those 65 and older. He lagged by 10 points among 35-to-49-year-old whites. But among those 50 to 64, Obama is losing by a whopping 18 points, 51 percent to 33 percent.”
I do the same when a pollster calls me.
LOL.. Are you serious with this post? You are so far off on another planet it’s laughable.
He had Virginia 50%, Bush won 54%? They had Bush +6%. S You cite SurveyUSA’s brilliant accuracy, they had Bush 51%-Kerry 47% in Virginia, +4%.
Are you crack cocaine or something?
What is the link to the SurveyUSA data that gives the boomer numbers?
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