Posted on 10/04/2008 10:03:21 AM PDT by jveritas
Below is a polling accuracy report card showing the accuracy of the polling firms were in the 2008 primaries all the way up to North Carolina and Indiana primaries. Rasmussen ranks number 20.
Primaries are notoriously difficult to poll as turnout is almost unpredictable.
Rasmussen state polling was the very best in 2004.
:]
I agree. Survey USA has been most accurate and even thought they lean left with their analysis many times they pick up movement well and are to be trusted even if I don’t like what I see. They don’t sample like Rasmussen or Zogsauce
How can he Rassmusen and other pollsters predict the turnout in the Presidential elections this year? Being accurate in a certain elections does not mean that he is going to be accurate in the next. Rasmussen was really bad in 2000 where Zogby was right and the opposite happened in 2004.
I’m beginning to think Rasmussen stinks.
Exactly.
32nd and 34th.
Nice job.
Not really. It is only tough if you use weighting for your models. SurveyUSA does true random samples and does not weight by party or demographics. This is why movement is picked up by their surveys and seem on my opinion to be most trusted..even when I don’t like..
I scanned through the SurveyUSA presidential polls and it looks like the majority of Obama’s supporters are boomers age 55-64. The sixties strike again!
“...age 55-64. The sixties strike again!...”
It’s retirement time, baby! We need a nation of 300,000,000 minions to support our Golden Years.
Rasmussen acknowledged errors and changed his methodology for 2004.. Zogby was experimenting with an internet-based polling system in 2004.
Survey USA had the best average and none of there polls were invalidated
Rasmussen called the states correctly, they were off by an average of 5.82 points. Three of their final polls were the closest, but another 3 of their final polls were off by more than 10 points.
Survey USA made predictions in 30 states. They called 29 right and was off by an average of 3.70. Three of their final polls were the closest, None of their polls were invalidated for being more than 10 points off.
The problem I have with Rasmussen this year is, he reports that Republican party affiliation rose 2% in August....then he changes his sample and increases the Democrats again by a small precentage. I don't understand how that increase translates to sampling more Democrats, Maybe he explained it and I missed it.
Great resource!
Okay, people, it’s time we do something about it. The polls, that is.
We complain when we see polls that don’t reflect our opinions. We complain when the polls aren’t reflecting what we think we feel or see out there. We complain when we get poll results from what we know are very obviously, biased news or information sources. We don’t go out of our way too much to complain about a poll that favors our side; in fact, we like to quote those polls when they favor our side, yet when those same pollsters show us losing, we go out of our way to disclaim them, and point out how wrong they are in their polling of republicans versus democrats versus liberals, etc.
We know to expect polls from just about any media source out there, and from universities, and organizations whose sole purpose is polling.
Free Republic is a source for opinion, and for news-making, for debates.
So, why doesn’t FR have its own polling department? I realize this is not a profit-making organization. But, perhaps on a voluntary basis, we can have some members go out into their neighborhoods to collect small samples of opinions, say 10-20 people per member, with enough members to reflect just about every neighborhood in the country, Once enough sampling is gathered (without any bias to the right or to the left), then those samples can be totaled into a larger polling sample from which we can then determine the Free Republic polling.
Thanks for posting this.
That was the first thing I noted in perusing that table, as well.
Rasmussen doesn’t do state polls well...period.
I don’t know where you get your data, I suspect either making it up out of thin air or repeating some crap someone else told you.
Rasmussen was nowhere near being off 5.82 on their state polling in 2004.. You are obviously confusing them with another outfit. They were among the best and well under 2.0.
Nonsense... They were among the best in 2004! Why does this crap keep getting repeated as if it were fact?
Because they released some polls you don’t like?
http://www.ncpp.org/drupal57/files/2004%20Election%20Polls%20Review.pdf
Rasmussen was good on his final poll for the NATIONAL percentage. Sweetie, I’m talking state by state.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.