Primaries are notoriously difficult to poll as turnout is almost unpredictable.
Rasmussen state polling was the very best in 2004.
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I agree. Survey USA has been most accurate and even thought they lean left with their analysis many times they pick up movement well and are to be trusted even if I don’t like what I see. They don’t sample like Rasmussen or Zogsauce
I’m beginning to think Rasmussen stinks.
I scanned through the SurveyUSA presidential polls and it looks like the majority of Obama’s supporters are boomers age 55-64. The sixties strike again!
Great resource!
Okay, people, it’s time we do something about it. The polls, that is.
We complain when we see polls that don’t reflect our opinions. We complain when the polls aren’t reflecting what we think we feel or see out there. We complain when we get poll results from what we know are very obviously, biased news or information sources. We don’t go out of our way too much to complain about a poll that favors our side; in fact, we like to quote those polls when they favor our side, yet when those same pollsters show us losing, we go out of our way to disclaim them, and point out how wrong they are in their polling of republicans versus democrats versus liberals, etc.
We know to expect polls from just about any media source out there, and from universities, and organizations whose sole purpose is polling.
Free Republic is a source for opinion, and for news-making, for debates.
So, why doesn’t FR have its own polling department? I realize this is not a profit-making organization. But, perhaps on a voluntary basis, we can have some members go out into their neighborhoods to collect small samples of opinions, say 10-20 people per member, with enough members to reflect just about every neighborhood in the country, Once enough sampling is gathered (without any bias to the right or to the left), then those samples can be totaled into a larger polling sample from which we can then determine the Free Republic polling.
Thanks for posting this.
Rasmussen doesn’t do state polls well...period.
100% accuracy with a margin of error based upon voter fraud.
I could do better than Gallup or CBS by reading the graffiti on a bathroom wall. What other industry (besides baseball) allows you a 10 percent margin of error and still pays you big bucks?
The avg error even softens the range. Some were likely off 10-15% during the primaries. Ignore the polls remember Kerry/Gore.
Pray for W, McCuda and Our Troops
From Fordham University research:
Analisis of poll estimates from 23 polling organizations: four of these polls appear to have overestimated McCain support (indicated with a * below), while most polls (17) overestimated Obama strength. Pre-election projections for two organizations’ final polls—Rasmussen and Pew—were perfectly in agreement with the actual election result (**).
The following list ranks the 23 organizations by the accuracy of their final, national preelection polls(as reported on pollster.com).