Primaries are notoriously difficult to poll as turnout is almost unpredictable.
Rasmussen state polling was the very best in 2004.
How can he Rassmusen and other pollsters predict the turnout in the Presidential elections this year? Being accurate in a certain elections does not mean that he is going to be accurate in the next. Rasmussen was really bad in 2000 where Zogby was right and the opposite happened in 2004.
Not really. It is only tough if you use weighting for your models. SurveyUSA does true random samples and does not weight by party or demographics. This is why movement is picked up by their surveys and seem on my opinion to be most trusted..even when I don’t like..
Survey USA had the best average and none of there polls were invalidated
Rasmussen called the states correctly, they were off by an average of 5.82 points. Three of their final polls were the closest, but another 3 of their final polls were off by more than 10 points.
Survey USA made predictions in 30 states. They called 29 right and was off by an average of 3.70. Three of their final polls were the closest, None of their polls were invalidated for being more than 10 points off.
The problem I have with Rasmussen this year is, he reports that Republican party affiliation rose 2% in August....then he changes his sample and increases the Democrats again by a small precentage. I don't understand how that increase translates to sampling more Democrats, Maybe he explained it and I missed it.