Hurricane Ike Live Thread III

NOAA/NHC ^ | 12 September 2008 | NOAA/NHC

[NautiNurse]

Large and dangerous Hurricane Ike approaching the Upper Texas coast. Mandatory evacuations began in earnest Thursday as an estimated one million coastal residents headed inland. There were widespread reports of gas stations running out of fuel.

The National Weather Service posted dire storm surge predictions of 20-25 ft storm surge along the coast and bay heads. Hurricane warnings covered a 400 mile swath of the Gulf of Mexico.

Wholesale gasoline prices spiked 30 percent Thursday, or nearly $1 a gallon, out of fear of what Ike might do.

Public Advisory Updated every 3 hours

Discussion Updated every 6 hours

Buoy data: Western Gulf of Mexico

Forecast Models

Houston/Galveston Long Range Radar
Corpus Christi Long Range Radar
Brownsville Long Range Radar
Lake Charles Long Range Radar

Ike
Single Image		Image Loop
Lat/Lon	No Lat/Lon	Short	Long
Visible	Visible	Visible	Visible
Shortwave	Shortwave	Shortwave	Shortwave
Water Vapor	Water Vapor	Water Vapor	Water Vapor
Infrared Channel 4 Enhancements
None	None	None	None
AVN	AVN	AVN	AVN
Dvorak	Dvorak	Dvorak	Dvorak
JSL	JSL	JSL	JSL
RGB	RGB	RGB	RGB
Funktop	Funktop	Funktop	Funktop
Rainbow	Rainbow	Rainbow	Rainbow

Additional Resources:

Navy Tropical Cyclone
Storm Pulse Very cool site

KHOU Houston
ABC 13 News Houston
FOX News Houston

KPLC Lake Charles
KFDM 6 Beaumont/Port Arthur
KKBMT 12 Beaumont
KRIS-TV Corpus Christi
KZTV Corpus Christi

Brazoria County Emergency Management
Galveston County Emergency Management
Chambers Country Emergency Management
Liberty County Emergency Management

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

Previous Threads:
Hurricane Ike Live Thread II
Hurricane Ike Live Thread I
TS Hanna, Hurricane Ike & TS Josephine [Other than that, the tropics are calm]
Tropical Storms Hanna, Ike and Josephine, TD Gustav (Other than that, the tropics are calm)

[conservativeinferno]

Animation of a twenty foot surge:

http://3dnature.com/anim/Galveston_TX-20ft-high.mp4

[pax_et_bonum]

Prayers up!

[BlueAngel]

Prayers for you all! Take Care!

[Romulus]

there are 1,800 dead from Katrina who took your point of view

You mean they evacuated? How did they die?

[lonestar]

They should have taken the children and pets—spare them their mother’s stupidity.

[conservativeinferno]

Per Fox News, USCC is attempting to rescue 150 people east of Galveston.

I say forget it! They were told to leave and didn’t!

Furthermore, what idiot needs the government to tell them to leave when a MONSTER hurricane is approaching?

[pax_et_bonum]

Prayers up!

[topher]

Conditions around Lafayette, Louisiana (200 miles East of Houston on I-10):

Schools are closed. City/Parish Government closed. Winds gusting up to 25 mph with some rain. This city is about 30 to 50 miles from the Gulf and is under Tropical Storm warning.

Federal Government: Post Office seems to be delivering mail.

The Vermillion River is definitely considerably higher than normal -- it still has not recovered from Gustav. A local Coulee (drainage ditch) was almost one third full -- backed up by the Vermillion River... But this Coulee may be able to raise 10 feet or more without any flooding...

Bands of rain from Ike hit the city YESTERDAy morning (Thursday morning).

It is hot and humid. Getting gasoline seems to be okay at local gasoline stations. Most homes still have debris from Gustav stacked in the front yard waiting for pickup.

Many businesses are still open.

I did see people boarding up houses yesterday and today.

There were a number of large trees cut up and waiting to be hauled away -- especially near the Vermillion River.

I did notice that one house had been torn down that I thought looked okay before Gustav.

Very heavy traffic -- it is unclear what conditions will be for the LSU game in Baton Rouge tomorrow...

Note: I will be happy if just get winds up to 50 mph and some rain (Louisiana style).

[Enosh]

Houston local ch. 11 is showing wreckage along the seawall with a structure sticking out of the water. That’s the 61st street fishing pier, destroyed. It used to stick something like 1/4 mile out, cost $10 to get on, had a bar and grill, just bits timber now.

[OB1kNOb]

Looks like many of the reporters on Galveston will be staying in some old WW2 bunker only 30’ above sea level???

Would that happen to be the old fort over on the Port Bolivar peninsula across the channel? If so, I dang sure wouldn't stay there for this size of storm and surge. It will get the full brunt of the storm surge at the mouth of the channel.

[FReepaholic]

...I guess God has a special place in His plan for idiots...

Yeah, Earth. And most of them work where I do. :-)

[brytlea]

I wonder what kind of animals she can’t take with her? If you live on an island, and you have animals, and there are likely to ever be hurricanes, you darn well owe it to them to be able to evacuate them. Of course, since she has kids, if you have to choose, you choose the kids and you get the heck out (and this is from an ardent dog lover—I might risk my own life for my animals, but I won’t risk my kids lives!)
susie

[penelopesire]

While we wait and pray:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dfYJKpLX1xw

Galveston!

[jeffers]

Here's what's flooded right now, 230 pm EDT, per NOAA: at plus five feet ASL:



At plus 13 feet ASL, about 80 percent of Galveston goes underwater:

http://i4.photobucket.com/albums/y138/jeffers_mz/Ikeplus13ASL.jpg

At plus 30 feet ASL, almost of all of Galveston and sigificant parts of the coastal metroplex are submerged:

http://i4.photobucket.com/albums/y138/jeffers_mz/Ikeplus30ASL.jpg

Here's a topographic map with five foot elevation increments:

http://i4.photobucket.com/albums/y138/jeffers_mz/Ike1.jpg

Wave height plus tide over mean sea level will add to the surge levels displayed.

[arkady_renko]

Sorry, didn’t mean to have you on the recipients. You can ignore it.

[Xenalyte]

You’re all added!

I think Nick’s will survive ... it better! No other bar will tolerate us.

[TheMom]

Lemme in.

[ReneeLynn]

Hi, everyone. I have a friend in Houston. She mentioned being in Harris. (I’ve only just known her area as Houston. The Kady elementary district.)

She wasn’t sure she and her family were going to leave, but I haven’t heard from her since Wednesday night. Can anyone tell me what conditions are like, or predicted to be like in Harris? She might head for Austin. Really worried. Thank you all for this thread.

[Romulus]

I’m glad he has one good call to his credit. I have more than I can remember. All but one were to stay put.

He doesn’t seem to be analysing today.

[topher]

In 1969, people did not evacuate before Hurricane Camille made landfall in Mississippi. From what I remember, anything along the beach at landfall was literally wiped out for about 200 feet (or maybe yards) inland.

Many people who stayed they never found a trace of -- just wasted out to sea as shark food or fish food.

Hurricane Camille would be considered a Category 5 storm.

It had sustained winds (not gusts) of 200 mph.

That was one reason there was nothing left on the beach front.

I imagine the other was the storm surge (which they probably did not know how to predict then).

People were told they must evacuate...