Hurricane Ike Live Thread III

NOAA/NHC ^ | 12 September 2008 | NOAA/NHC

[NautiNurse]

Large and dangerous Hurricane Ike approaching the Upper Texas coast. Mandatory evacuations began in earnest Thursday as an estimated one million coastal residents headed inland. There were widespread reports of gas stations running out of fuel.

The National Weather Service posted dire storm surge predictions of 20-25 ft storm surge along the coast and bay heads. Hurricane warnings covered a 400 mile swath of the Gulf of Mexico.

Wholesale gasoline prices spiked 30 percent Thursday, or nearly $1 a gallon, out of fear of what Ike might do.

Public Advisory Updated every 3 hours

Discussion Updated every 6 hours

Buoy data: Western Gulf of Mexico

Forecast Models

Houston/Galveston Long Range Radar
Corpus Christi Long Range Radar
Brownsville Long Range Radar
Lake Charles Long Range Radar

Ike
Single Image		Image Loop
Lat/Lon	No Lat/Lon	Short	Long
Visible	Visible	Visible	Visible
Shortwave	Shortwave	Shortwave	Shortwave
Water Vapor	Water Vapor	Water Vapor	Water Vapor
Infrared Channel 4 Enhancements
None	None	None	None
AVN	AVN	AVN	AVN
Dvorak	Dvorak	Dvorak	Dvorak
JSL	JSL	JSL	JSL
RGB	RGB	RGB	RGB
Funktop	Funktop	Funktop	Funktop
Rainbow	Rainbow	Rainbow	Rainbow

Additional Resources:

Navy Tropical Cyclone
Storm Pulse Very cool site

KHOU Houston
ABC 13 News Houston
FOX News Houston

KPLC Lake Charles
KFDM 6 Beaumont/Port Arthur
KKBMT 12 Beaumont
KRIS-TV Corpus Christi
KZTV Corpus Christi

Brazoria County Emergency Management
Galveston County Emergency Management
Chambers Country Emergency Management
Liberty County Emergency Management

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

Previous Threads:
Hurricane Ike Live Thread II
Hurricane Ike Live Thread I
TS Hanna, Hurricane Ike & TS Josephine [Other than that, the tropics are calm]
Tropical Storms Hanna, Ike and Josephine, TD Gustav (Other than that, the tropics are calm)

[gracesdad]

“Bad sign when the critters run for higher ground. Did they identify the location”

I didn’t turn the sound on in time to hear.

[Allegra]

Please put me on your H-Town hurricane ping list.

You think Nick's will survive Ike? ;-)

[conservativeinferno]

Here is an animation of what a twenty foot surge would do to Galveston:

http://3dnature.com/anim/Galveston_TX-20ft-high.mp4

[dirtboy]

Remember that most of those urging you to do this or that have their own agendas, not yours at heart.

Yeah, sure, dude, I have an agenda. Bite me again. My 'agenda' is to try and get people to not listen to the likes of you, who says forecasters always over-forecast these storms when they under-forecast the surge from Katrina just 3 years ago, which contributed to the death toll. There is no place on this thread for deliberate ignorance like that. Now, of course, there is a high chance it won't be as bad as the worst-case scenario (that is why it is called such), and you'll show up in two days and cluck about how you were right all along. However, there are 1,800 dead from Katrina who took your point of view and paid with their lives when the worst-case scenario didn't even begin to describe how bad it would get.

[Marathoner]

RE: #720, you owe me a new screen. Thanks for the good laugh.

[kinghorse]

I am an oldtimer regarding the Blue Water Hwy that starts at Surfside Jetty, meanders along the beach for 12 miles to San Luis pass and toll bridge to Galveston. The TV pictures indicate it is a big deal, no hype. Those Galveston piers that have already failed survived Alicia I believe. The fact the seawall has already been topped is pretty amazing. I have never seen that in the 30 years I’ve lived near the coast.

[humblegunner]

If you do see this post, good luck to you tonight!

Thanks!

Sure I'm still here.

Banning only slows my connection a bit.

The Force is strong with me! ;-)

[pax_et_bonum]

I was wondering about Nick’s, too!

;-)

[AFPhys]

sorry... just saw your question... I was going to look that up and got dstrracted trying to call Rush

I’ll get that for you.

[dirtboy]

Yeah, I read all that. What’s your point?

Gee, that a hurricane expert says this could be as bad as Katrina, a hurricane that killed 1,800 people mostly through storm surge flooding, and you're prancing all over this thread spewing misinformation?

[Romulus]

I wouldn’t advise anyone to stay in Galveston — though a great many media types are willing to give it a shot. That’s a very different proposition than badgering a lady who lives on the mainland, 10 miles in and 29 feet above sea level.

[BlueAngel]

Yep, please put me on it, Xenalyte!!

[brytlea]

Yeah. My kids live in Austin and Dallas so.....
susie

[Broker]

The San Luis Hotel best be constructed like Ft. Knox. The hydraulic force of water can never be underestimated. You have sense to stay away.. Galveston might well be a bungle of debris at tomorrow's dawn. Pray for the stragglers.

[penelopesire]

Looks like many of the reporters on Galveston will be staying in some old WW2 bunker only 30’ above sea level???

Heard a report just now on TXCN.

[kinghorse]

The San Luis Hotel is a fort/bunker built to survive any storm.

[Romulus]

I have a lot of respect for Dr. Masters. You should read his post again — esp. the part about storm surge.

[brytlea]

Some people think this is a lark. I remember years ago the story about the people having the hurricane party in a hotel on the beach (was it Camille? Can’t remember for sure) who were swept away. I hope those kids stay safe.
susie

[Zechariah_8_13]

They just don’t trust that the words mean what they say anymore - and who can blame them?

The main problem is that people have become accustomed to relying on the gov't to do their thinking for them. It doesn't matter what the talking heads say, just look at the evidence and make your own determination.

[OB1kNOb]

Thanks, FRiends. If you would, keep us all in your prayers, especially for the safety of the linemen that risk their lives over the least little mistake or accident. Handling electricity is dangerous enough under perfect conditions, but under such stressful conditions with the long hours and fatigue, the danger multiplies.