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Hurricane Ike Live Thread III
NOAA/NHC ^ | 12 September 2008 | NOAA/NHC

Posted on 09/12/2008 5:12:09 AM PDT by NautiNurse

Large and dangerous Hurricane Ike approaching the Upper Texas coast. Mandatory evacuations began in earnest Thursday as an estimated one million coastal residents headed inland. There were widespread reports of gas stations running out of fuel.

The National Weather Service posted dire storm surge predictions of 20-25 ft storm surge along the coast and bay heads. Hurricane warnings covered a 400 mile swath of the Gulf of Mexico.

Wholesale gasoline prices spiked 30 percent Thursday, or nearly $1 a gallon, out of fear of what Ike might do.

Public Advisory Updated every 3 hours

Discussion Updated every 6 hours

Buoy data: Western Gulf of Mexico

Forecast Models

Houston/Galveston Long Range Radar
Corpus Christi Long Range Radar
Brownsville Long Range Radar
Lake Charles Long Range Radar

Ike
Single Image Image Loop
Lat/Lon No Lat/Lon Short Long
Visible Visible Visible Visible
Shortwave Shortwave Shortwave Shortwave
Water Vapor Water Vapor Water Vapor Water Vapor
Infrared Channel 4 Enhancements
None None None None
AVN AVN AVN AVN
Dvorak Dvorak Dvorak Dvorak
JSL JSL JSL JSL
RGB RGB RGB RGB
Funktop Funktop Funktop Funktop
Rainbow Rainbow Rainbow Rainbow

Additional Resources:

Navy Tropical Cyclone
Storm Pulse Very cool site

KHOU Houston
ABC 13 News Houston
FOX News Houston

KPLC Lake Charles
KFDM 6 Beaumont/Port Arthur
KKBMT 12 Beaumont
KRIS-TV Corpus Christi
KZTV Corpus Christi

Brazoria County Emergency Management
Galveston County Emergency Management
Chambers Country Emergency Management
Liberty County Emergency Management

Category Wind Speed Barometric Pressure Storm Surge Damage Potential
Tropical
Depression
< 39 mph
< 34 kts
    Minimal
Tropical
Storm
39 - 73 mph
34 - 63 kts
    Minimal
Hurricane 1
(Weak)
74 - 95 mph
64 - 82 kts
28.94" or more
980.02 mb or more
4.0' - 5.0'
1.2 m - 1.5 m
Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2
(Moderate)
96 - 110 mph
83 - 95 kts
28.50" - 28.93"
965.12 mb - 979.68 mb
6.0' - 8.0'
1.8 m - 2.4 m
Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3
(Strong)
111 - 130 mph
96 - 112 kts
27.91" - 28.49"
945.14 mb - 964.78 mb
9.0' - 12.0'
2.7 m - 3.7 m
Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4
(Very strong)
131 - 155 mph
113 - 135 kts
27.17" - 27.90"
920.08 mb - 944.80 mb
13.0' - 18.0'
3.9 m - 5.5 m
Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5
(Devastating)
Greater than 155 mph
Greater than 135 kts
Less than 27.17"
Less than 920.08 mb
Greater than 18.0'
Greater than 5.5m
Catastrophic building failures possible

Previous Threads:
Hurricane Ike Live Thread II
Hurricane Ike Live Thread I
TS Hanna, Hurricane Ike & TS Josephine [Other than that, the tropics are calm]
Tropical Storms Hanna, Ike and Josephine, TD Gustav (Other than that, the tropics are calm)


TOPICS: News/Current Events; US: Arkansas; US: Louisiana; US: Oklahoma; US: Texas
KEYWORDS: arkansas; california; crude; desiel; drill; flordia; florida; galveston; gasoline; gulf; hurricane; ike; louisiana; offshore; oil; oklahoma; prices; refineries; rigs; storm; texas; weather
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To: texasredtop

Okay.


641 posted on 09/12/2008 11:15:00 AM PDT by pax_et_bonum (That midget hates it when I do that.)
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To: dirtboy
I was thinking about a storm surge in NOLA as well. Humm?

BTW, dirtboy...I've noticed some people can't tell when others are truly trying to help them out. Idiots!

sw

642 posted on 09/12/2008 11:15:41 AM PDT by spectre (Spectre's wife (Is He the one?)
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To: Moose4
LOL...if you just use the Public Advisory link located at the top of the thread, just copy/paste the text into your comment, and viola! No formatting necessary.

p.s. I've done a lot of work pulling these threads together over the years to save time (and eyesight) in the long run.

643 posted on 09/12/2008 11:16:00 AM PDT by NautiNurse (Palin won more votes in her Wasilla Mayoral race than Biden got in his 2008 Pres run)
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To: DollyCali

rotfl


644 posted on 09/12/2008 11:16:14 AM PDT by AFPhys ((.Praying for President Bush, our troops, their families, and all my American neighbors..))
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To: dirtboy
I'd sure like to know what makes you a Katrina expert. I've forgotten more about Katrina than you'll ever know.

Bite me.

Is that what passes for civil discourse in Pennsylvania, land of hurricane experts? Stay classy, dirtboy.

645 posted on 09/12/2008 11:16:20 AM PDT by Romulus ("Ira enim viri iustitiam Dei non operatur")
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To: NautiNurse

Not sure if anyone has posted this site on any of the threads, it’s pretty intersting.
http://www.dallasnews.com/hurricane/

It gives visual predictions of where the wind fields will be. According to this Austin (for instance) will get winds of 74+. Just interesting for people who wonder about some of the inland areas.

susie


646 posted on 09/12/2008 11:17:22 AM PDT by brytlea (Obama--Keep the change!)
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To: texasredtop
Bring out your dead!

You're not dead yet! :-)

(This bit of levity brought to you by Monty Python)

647 posted on 09/12/2008 11:17:34 AM PDT by justlurking (The only remedy for a bad guy with a gun is a good guy with a gun.)
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To: luckystarmom
Expecting high winds here but not as bad as where we came from

This storm is so large that all the people I know--from near Galveston to orth of Dallas who would except "refugees, were possible refugees themselves.

People are leaving everywhere for a "better" ride.

648 posted on 09/12/2008 11:18:08 AM PDT by lonestar (Jasper)
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To: arkady_renko

wow


649 posted on 09/12/2008 11:20:10 AM PDT by RDTF (my worst nightmare is being on jury duty sequestered with 11 liberals)
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To: TheMom

overcast here, no big wind yet, yard is as picked up as I can make it, and supplies are all in central location, my house is small, so central is pretty easy for me.

I just cant imagine these people not leaving down there.


650 posted on 09/12/2008 11:21:05 AM PDT by RikaStrom (The number one rule of the Kama Sutra is that you both be on the same page.../Exeter 051705)
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To: bayouranger; TheMom; Eaker; Bacon Man; Hap; BlueAngel; BradyBug; Ditter; Humidston; humblegunner; ..

I’ma start an H-town Hurricane ping list for communication and gossip and such like. Iffen you want on it, let me know!


651 posted on 09/12/2008 11:21:32 AM PDT by Xenalyte (West Houston . . . Beltway and I-10, more or less)
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To: brytlea

Neat map. If they’re right, even the south side of the DFW metroplex may well get 40+ mph winds for a while.

}:-)4


652 posted on 09/12/2008 11:22:40 AM PDT by Moose4 (http://moosedroppings.wordpress.com -- Because 20 million self-important blogs just aren't enough.)
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To: Xenalyte

Please add me, Xena!


653 posted on 09/12/2008 11:23:31 AM PDT by pax_et_bonum (That midget hates it when I do that.)
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To: lonestar

My best friend’s husband is in the reserves. They live in Carrolton. He was called up for Rita, and I wonder if he’s been called up yet. She’s at work right now, so I can’t reach her. Her mom lives in Port Arthur, so I imagine they’ve evacuated her.

I have an aunt in Beaumont. She went without electricity for weeks in Woodville after Rita.


654 posted on 09/12/2008 11:24:52 AM PDT by luckystarmom
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To: Xenalyte

Giddy up!


655 posted on 09/12/2008 11:25:09 AM PDT by bayouranger (The 1st victim of islam is the person who practices the lie.)
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To: NautiNurse

Well, I’ve just been given notice to pack up and get ready to head for eastern Texas coastal region Monday morning for 7-14 days to assist in massive power restoration efforts. Have been told to expect and pack for primitive conditions, no hotel rooms, etc. I volunteered, so this ought to be a real challenging adventure. Seriously, pray for safety for all the linemen and line crews that will be out there in terrible conditions trying to get electricity back on. They really are heros in times like these. - OB1


656 posted on 09/12/2008 11:25:39 AM PDT by OB1kNOb (Our patriotic hockey mom can beat up your commie community organizer.)
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To: NautiNurse; Romulus; dirtboy

Dr. Jeff Masters' Blog post on Wunderground

Hurricane Ike is closing in on Texas, and stands poised to become one of the most damaging hurricanes of all time. Despite Ike's rated Category 2 strength, the hurricane is much larger and more powerful than Category 5 Katrina or Category 5 Rita. The storm surge from Ike could rival Katrina's, inundating a 200-mile stretch of coast from Galveston to Cameron, Louisiana with waters over 15 feet high. This massive storm surge is due to the exceptional size of Ike. According to the latest wind field estimate (Figure 1), the diameter of Ike's tropical storm and hurricane force winds are 550 and 240 miles, respectively. For comparison, Katrina numbers at landfall were 440 and 210 miles, respectively.

As I discussed in yesterday's blog entry, a good measure of the storm surge potential is Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE). Ike continues to grow larger and has intensified slightly since yesterday, and the hurricane's Integrated Kinetic Energy has increased from 134 to 149 Terajoules. This is 30% higher than Katrina's total energy at landfall. All this extra energy has gone into piling up a vast storm surge that will probably be higher than anything in recorded history along the Texas coast. Storm surge heights of 20-25 feet are possible from Galveston northwards to the Louisiana border. The Texas storm surge record is held by Hurricane Carla of 1961. Carla was a Category 4 hurricane with 145 mph winds at landfall, and drove a 10 foot or higher storm surge to a 180-mile stretch of Texas coast. A maximum storm surge of 22 feet was recorded at Port Lavaca, Texas.

Much more at Wunderground

657 posted on 09/12/2008 11:26:07 AM PDT by arkady_renko
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To: numberonepal; nwctwx
Buoy 42035 with 20ft waves is still a good 140 miles from the center of the storm. On the other hand...Buoy 42361 clocked sustained winds of 108 kts...124 mph!


658 posted on 09/12/2008 11:26:26 AM PDT by NautiNurse (Palin won more votes in her Wasilla Mayoral race than Biden got in his 2008 Pres run)
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To: TornadoAlley3

I saw that. lol


659 posted on 09/12/2008 11:27:17 AM PDT by meanie monster
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To: pax_et_bonum

Done!


660 posted on 09/12/2008 11:27:22 AM PDT by Xenalyte (West Houston . . . Beltway and I-10, more or less)
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