Hurricane Ike Live Thread III

NOAA/NHC ^ | 12 September 2008 | NOAA/NHC

[NautiNurse]

Large and dangerous Hurricane Ike approaching the Upper Texas coast. Mandatory evacuations began in earnest Thursday as an estimated one million coastal residents headed inland. There were widespread reports of gas stations running out of fuel.

The National Weather Service posted dire storm surge predictions of 20-25 ft storm surge along the coast and bay heads. Hurricane warnings covered a 400 mile swath of the Gulf of Mexico.

Wholesale gasoline prices spiked 30 percent Thursday, or nearly $1 a gallon, out of fear of what Ike might do.

Public Advisory Updated every 3 hours

Discussion Updated every 6 hours

Buoy data: Western Gulf of Mexico

Forecast Models

Houston/Galveston Long Range Radar
Corpus Christi Long Range Radar
Brownsville Long Range Radar
Lake Charles Long Range Radar

Ike
Single Image		Image Loop
Lat/Lon	No Lat/Lon	Short	Long
Visible	Visible	Visible	Visible
Shortwave	Shortwave	Shortwave	Shortwave
Water Vapor	Water Vapor	Water Vapor	Water Vapor
Infrared Channel 4 Enhancements
None	None	None	None
AVN	AVN	AVN	AVN
Dvorak	Dvorak	Dvorak	Dvorak
JSL	JSL	JSL	JSL
RGB	RGB	RGB	RGB
Funktop	Funktop	Funktop	Funktop
Rainbow	Rainbow	Rainbow	Rainbow

Additional Resources:

Navy Tropical Cyclone
Storm Pulse Very cool site

KHOU Houston
ABC 13 News Houston
FOX News Houston

KPLC Lake Charles
KFDM 6 Beaumont/Port Arthur
KKBMT 12 Beaumont
KRIS-TV Corpus Christi
KZTV Corpus Christi

Brazoria County Emergency Management
Galveston County Emergency Management
Chambers Country Emergency Management
Liberty County Emergency Management

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

Previous Threads:
Hurricane Ike Live Thread II
Hurricane Ike Live Thread I
TS Hanna, Hurricane Ike & TS Josephine [Other than that, the tropics are calm]
Tropical Storms Hanna, Ike and Josephine, TD Gustav (Other than that, the tropics are calm)

[Renata Maree]

"a good measure of the storm surge potential is Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE)...he hurricane's Integrated Kinetic Energy has increased from 134 to 149 Terajoules. This is 30% higher than Katrina's total energy at landfall."

What an appropriate name for this storm.

May God protect those that live in the path of this hurricane. I pray the evacuations have been thorough, and that those affected will remain safe.

[Broker]

Tonight I will be glued to FOX news to witness Geraldo Rivera’s last stand in Galveston. Whether you like him or not, he is a gutsy macho fool who is in his element.

[ichabod1]

Please put me on the ping list, X.

[Tex_GOP_Cruz]

Please add me to your ping list and good luck to you!

I’m in Houston proper, just outside the Loop near 290. (~60ft elevation)

[humblegunner]

If bad comes to worse we got a couch and beer over here!

Thanks! If I get totaled I'll remember that.

I figure about 2:00 or 3:00 AM we ought to be catching it.

[CarolAnn]

They don’t have too much to worry about with storm surge, but they flood very easily. Wind and power outage will probably be a big problem.

[2Jedismom]

Thanks.

[SomeCallMeTim]

And I don’t gamble with my life.

I'm sorry, Red Top... but, you are. All we are discussing now is: What your odds are?

If you think you can wait, and see what the storm surge is like tonight (at midnight).. and THEN leave... you're wrong.

That said... I think your odds are improving slightly. Now that we can see the actual eye on radar, Ike appears to be sliding just a bit further east that predicted. If so, that will cut the surge seen in your area by half.. leaving you very safe.

At worst... you won't be seeing catastrophic damage in your area.. probably just flooding. Which.. if you're THERE, you can actually help limit the damage.

You HAVE gambled... as none of us could say for certain just how bad it was going to be... and, it could STILL change. But, it looks to me like you've made a good call, and will most likely be OK.

Still though... I'll be praying for you.

[Ditter]

Count me in Xena as long as the power is on I’ll be here.

[dirtboy]

For N'oreasters, they rate them 1-5 by a combination of wind speed and fetch, or the distance the wind blows over open water. Long fetches are why N'oreasters can have weaker winds than hurricanes but put up flooding like a hurricane and waves far worse than hurricanes. For comparison, the 1993 Blizzard was a 3 for flooding and wave action, the 1992 N'oreaster was a 4, and the Perfect Storm of 1991 was a 5.

For large storms like Katrina, Rita and Ike, fetch starts to factor in along with windspeed. Ike is massive with a fetch blowing from the western tip of Cuba all the way into the NE Texas coast. That is a long ways for wave action to develop and to pile up water ahead of the storm.

[eastforker]

Yep, we both got lots of trees.

[American Quilter]

Are you still here, humble? I clicked on your name to see your home page and it says your account has been banned or suspended. If you do see this post, good luck to you tonight!

[Romulus]

I was at a cocktail party that Saturday night, and everyone I talked to was staying. Watched the 10 pm news and went to bed without much worry. My sister called at 5 am to tell me K had exploded in the night, so I knew I had to go.

A great many people evacuated for Gustav 12 days ago, but we stayed. It was windy, but not hurricane force.

If you have knowledge of the area and plenty of hurricane experience — as you seem to do — then take the appropriate precautions for your home and use your own judgment. Remember that most of those urging you to do this or that have their own agendas, not yours at heart. Politicians would be happiest if citizens never came home at all, except to vote and pay taxes.

[SomeCallMeTim]

Oh... Geraldo will be OK. There are buildings on Galveston that will likely survive.. I’d be willing to stay at the San Luis Hotel. Holiday Inn?? Not so sure... I’ve stayed there MANY MANY times... but, not while the island was being washed by waves.. no thanks.

[NautiNurse]

One station just showed a rattler and rat crossing a highway. Bad sign when the critters run for higher ground. Did they identify the location?

[DrewsMum]

Bill White is a an idiot. Sorry for the blunt opinion. God help us if he runs for Governor.

[dandelion]

I join you in prayer now, for all of those in the path of the storm -

God of wind and rain, we come to You. In the hour of our need, You hear our prayer and heed our cry.

Father, protect Your children - in Jesus name we pray...

[Romulus]

Yeah, I read all that. What’s your point?

[DollyCali]

the mother stated she wants her children to learn about big storms.

duh...

I am really angry our coast guard men & women are in danger to try to save these dimwits.

Need to leave shortly for chiropractor, stores, errands etc.

will catch up later tonight

[justlurking]

One station just showed a rattler and rat crossing a highway.

I thought Obama and Biden were campaigning in New York?!