Hurricane Ike Live Thread III

NOAA/NHC ^ | 12 September 2008 | NOAA/NHC

[NautiNurse]

Large and dangerous Hurricane Ike approaching the Upper Texas coast. Mandatory evacuations began in earnest Thursday as an estimated one million coastal residents headed inland. There were widespread reports of gas stations running out of fuel.

The National Weather Service posted dire storm surge predictions of 20-25 ft storm surge along the coast and bay heads. Hurricane warnings covered a 400 mile swath of the Gulf of Mexico.

Wholesale gasoline prices spiked 30 percent Thursday, or nearly $1 a gallon, out of fear of what Ike might do.

Public Advisory Updated every 3 hours

Discussion Updated every 6 hours

Buoy data: Western Gulf of Mexico

Forecast Models

Houston/Galveston Long Range Radar
Corpus Christi Long Range Radar
Brownsville Long Range Radar
Lake Charles Long Range Radar

Ike
Single Image		Image Loop
Lat/Lon	No Lat/Lon	Short	Long
Visible	Visible	Visible	Visible
Shortwave	Shortwave	Shortwave	Shortwave
Water Vapor	Water Vapor	Water Vapor	Water Vapor
Infrared Channel 4 Enhancements
None	None	None	None
AVN	AVN	AVN	AVN
Dvorak	Dvorak	Dvorak	Dvorak
JSL	JSL	JSL	JSL
RGB	RGB	RGB	RGB
Funktop	Funktop	Funktop	Funktop
Rainbow	Rainbow	Rainbow	Rainbow

Additional Resources:

Navy Tropical Cyclone
Storm Pulse Very cool site

KHOU Houston
ABC 13 News Houston
FOX News Houston

KPLC Lake Charles
KFDM 6 Beaumont/Port Arthur
KKBMT 12 Beaumont
KRIS-TV Corpus Christi
KZTV Corpus Christi

Brazoria County Emergency Management
Galveston County Emergency Management
Chambers Country Emergency Management
Liberty County Emergency Management

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

Previous Threads:
Hurricane Ike Live Thread II
Hurricane Ike Live Thread I
TS Hanna, Hurricane Ike & TS Josephine [Other than that, the tropics are calm]
Tropical Storms Hanna, Ike and Josephine, TD Gustav (Other than that, the tropics are calm)

[Unlikely Hero]

We aren’t anywhere near the water. We’re not in a mandatory evac zone. Honestly, I don’t think I can afford the gas to even get up to Spring, which is where my future in-laws live and where we would go (that is, if the roads are as clogged as I think they will be).

We’ll have to do the best we can here.

[texasredtop]

This thread is going to be your epitaph if you don’t leave.
+++++++
Well thank you for your positive thoughts - LOL

[NautiNurse]

Fools rush in where angels fear to tread.

Winds picking up to 40 mph...news choppers need to pull out of the area per KHOU.

FNC reporting the Coast Guard is trying to rescue crew on the stranded freighter.

[Moose4]

The problem is, this storm’s been breaking a lot of the “rules” about tropical systems since it hit Cuba. It’s much bigger than normal, and has a low central pressure when compared to its windspeed. It’s had much higher winds at altitude than it has at the surface, which has complicated estimating and forecasting. Every time it looks like it’s going to “bomb out” and strengthen, it doesn’t; every time it looks like it’s going to weaken, it doesn’t. Because of its sheer size, it’s got a storm surge that’s totally out of proportion to its sustained winds. Category 2 storms with 100-105 mph winds are just not supposed to be pushing 25 feet of water in front of them, and causing flooding along five hundred miles of coast, but Ike is. Put all of that together and you have a storm that’s extremely hard to figure out.

The key thing to remember, though, is this—that storm surge. The winds are probably not unmanageable for a well-built modern building. But virtually NOTHING is going to stand up to 16-20 feet of water with hurricane-force-wind-driven waves on top of that, and debris on top of that. The storm surge is what killed New Orleans by topping and breaching the levees, and the storm surge is what scoured Mississippi clean for a half-mile inland in 2005. And the geography of the Houston/Galveston area means that big storm surge is going to be able to push up Galveston Bay and get a lot further inland than people might think.

}:-)4

[texasredtop]

29’

[Romulus]

And this storm has more kinetic energy associated with it than Katrina at her peak.

Because it's larger. So it's moving a lot more water. Which makes plenty of difference to someone living 50 miles from where the eye comes ashore -- but our friend is interested only in the water headed for her house.

For the record, the NHC's forecast (as of 10 am CDT) maxes out the storm surge at 25 feet, and only in selected areas. For most areas, they max it out at 20 feet. I have a hard time believing they would err on the low side here, after the Katrina disaster.

[lonestar]

I hit CS about 3 a.m.

I have already (by 11 a.m.)had a hospital bed for my mother delivered and set up.

I have only evacuated to College Station...this my second time, and I don't have anything to compare to but...

I'd have a hard time believing that any town and its residents could be any nicer and accomodating, both times, to people in need than what I have found in College Station.

They had flashing signs up saying "Welcome evacuees" and all along the way into town signs giving directions to shelters.

[spectre]

I don't know if the Houston mayor is a Dem or Pubbie. Bush is from Texas, so he will definitely get the blame.

Arkansas Gov.Declares State of Emergency over Ike-Related Gasoline Supply Disruptions

We filled both our cars last night...:)

sw

[arkady_renko]

I understand. Good luck to you then, we’ll say a prayer for you. Later.

[texasredtop]

I don’t want to waste my last few hours on earth hasing out details with you :-)

[patton]

You know, for enough money, I can fix all that.

But I can’t fix it by midnight, no matter how much money you have.

[Romulus]

I think Geraldo’s getting to you. Please get a grip.

[AFPhys]

I’ve been complaining about the debasement of the language by constant use of hyperbole for decades. People calling spanking “abuse”, getting drunk and having sex “date rape”, etc... it just removes the power that used to be associated with the words abuse and rape. There are so many other examples I could give.

I pointed out on threads earlier this week that when the NOLA mayor called Gustav the “mother of all storms” that was in the same pattern. Now, no one has any idea when things are being properly described.

Is it really the wolf out there, or is it just “calling wolf”.

It is a horribly bad situation. I suspect this is going to contribute to - no_will be the determining factor - in many people’s death tomorrow. They just don’t trust that the words mean what they say any more - and who can blame them?

[pax_et_bonum]

I’m from the area east of Houston for almost fifty years and I’m with dirtboy.

Also, if you don’t know exactly what will happen, you could endanger lives by giving advice which errs, even slightly, against caution.

I know my area well and I chose to leave.

I hope I’m evacuated unnecessarily, but I KNOW that I’m not going to endanger the lives of rescue personnel by my decision to get out of probable harm’s way.

[Unlikely Hero]

No, we’re on the top floor. It’s about 13 feet off the ground, maybe. I’m not sure what the elevation over sea level is. But as far as we are inland, if there is that much flooding here, this is not a storm, it’s the Vengeful Hand of an Angry God.

Or something out of H.P. Lovecraft. Hurricane Azathoth.

[twigs]

I thought Dean did an awful job with Gustav. She keep predicting much worse than her graphics showed. A spiritual brother at our church just asked for prayers for his biological brother who is staying in Houston with critical patients. They don’t expect their house to survive. I worry about the people in Houston. I was living there once when a hurricane was predicted. I was told they never come there and that the people there ignore the hype. Hmm.

[texasredtop]

WOW, I would have never thought of those things ;-)

Should I gas up the vehicles now too? LOL

[AFPhys]

LOL

[pax_et_bonum]

You’re in Deer Park and your vehicles aren’t gassed up?

I don’t get it.

[Unlikely Hero]

Thank you. :)

This is enough to make me remember a line from a paper on tsunamis I wrote in the 5th grade (I probably stole it from somewhere): Perhaps the day will come when people come together in times of calm like they do now in times of calamity.