The problem is, this storm’s been breaking a lot of the “rules” about tropical systems since it hit Cuba. It’s much bigger than normal, and has a low central pressure when compared to its windspeed. It’s had much higher winds at altitude than it has at the surface, which has complicated estimating and forecasting. Every time it looks like it’s going to “bomb out” and strengthen, it doesn’t; every time it looks like it’s going to weaken, it doesn’t. Because of its sheer size, it’s got a storm surge that’s totally out of proportion to its sustained winds. Category 2 storms with 100-105 mph winds are just not supposed to be pushing 25 feet of water in front of them, and causing flooding along five hundred miles of coast, but Ike is. Put all of that together and you have a storm that’s extremely hard to figure out.
The key thing to remember, though, is this—that storm surge. The winds are probably not unmanageable for a well-built modern building. But virtually NOTHING is going to stand up to 16-20 feet of water with hurricane-force-wind-driven waves on top of that, and debris on top of that. The storm surge is what killed New Orleans by topping and breaching the levees, and the storm surge is what scoured Mississippi clean for a half-mile inland in 2005. And the geography of the Houston/Galveston area means that big storm surge is going to be able to push up Galveston Bay and get a lot further inland than people might think.
}:-)4
You know, for enough money, I can fix all that.
But I can’t fix it by midnight, no matter how much money you have.