Posted on 09/12/2008 5:12:09 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Large and dangerous Hurricane Ike approaching the Upper Texas coast. Mandatory evacuations began in earnest Thursday as an estimated one million coastal residents headed inland. There were widespread reports of gas stations running out of fuel.
The National Weather Service posted dire storm surge predictions of 20-25 ft storm surge along the coast and bay heads. Hurricane warnings covered a 400 mile swath of the Gulf of Mexico.
Wholesale gasoline prices spiked 30 percent Thursday, or nearly $1 a gallon, out of fear of what Ike might do.
Public Advisory Updated every 3 hours
Discussion Updated every 6 hours
Buoy data: Western Gulf of Mexico
Houston/Galveston Long Range Radar
Corpus Christi Long Range Radar
Brownsville Long Range Radar
Lake Charles Long Range Radar
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Additional Resources:
Navy Tropical Cyclone
Storm Pulse Very cool site
KHOU Houston
ABC 13 News Houston
FOX News Houston
KPLC Lake Charles
KFDM 6 Beaumont/Port Arthur
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KRIS-TV Corpus Christi
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Brazoria County Emergency Management
Galveston County Emergency Management
Chambers Country Emergency Management
Liberty County Emergency Management
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
Previous Threads:
Hurricane Ike Live Thread II
Hurricane Ike Live Thread I
TS Hanna, Hurricane Ike & TS Josephine [Other than that, the tropics are calm]
Tropical Storms Hanna, Ike and Josephine, TD Gustav (Other than that, the tropics are calm)
I’m not going to live my life in fear of the news media. I could have a life-threatening injury on the road evacuating. Thanks for your thoughts and well wishes!
Bingo
It is probably too late for a lot of people right now
They have made their decision to stay put, and many are going to die.
I’m glad JPSB seems to have bugged out. I agree with texasredtop’s very measured assessment of her situation probably being OK. But anyone significantly less secure and prepared than her is in mortal jeopardy.
I don’t know how things are looking in my area because I’ve lived there long enough to know to get the heck out!
I’m in Baton Rouge with my fiancee and my younger son.
We’re having rain and a tornado warning here.
LOL - gotta love TX.
You need to read and listen...this storm is all about size and water surge--not about wind. Portions of Galveston are already flooded now. Galveston is forecast to be totally under water tonight.
Believe me, I know what it is like when faced with the evacuation decision. This may be the only time in your life when it is a really sensible time to bug out.
Est. windspeed at landfall: 135mph.
Est. min. pressure at landfal 936mb.
Galveston Island tidal surge: 15'.
Currenlty it looks like Ike will be comparable to slightly less powerful than the 1900 hurricane when it makes landfall. However, the big uncertainty to me is how the actual height of the storm surge and its forward speed will compare to 1900.
In any event imo we should prepare for widespread destruction along the TX coast and impaired oil refining capacity for the foreseeable future.
With all due respect, keep posting if you are going to stay. This thread is going to be your epitaph if you don't leave. Good luck, but lady, you're doomed by your own choice.
Only God can help them. They were warned....
I wonder if there will ever really be any way to determine the total loss of live from those.
What’s going to happen, is that the storm is going to get worse and a whole bunch of people are going to get scared and decide that they don’t want to ride it out. They’ll call for help in evacuating and it won’t be there. It’d be suicide for the rescuers to go out in it and then there’ll be all kinds of complaining about them not being helped.
They’re going to be screwed.
Yeh, I was a Galtex resident from "79 to "97. Glad I'm 1500 miles away today though. Also
KHOU, channel 361, directv >
If you can get gas ... get it now!
No power ... then the service stations can't pump gas!
A generator with out gas ... don't work!
Propane for the BBQ!
I don't get it. There is a mental block that gets stuck on wind speed, despite all of the supporting data--and now video--showing what this freak storm is going to produce in storm surge.
Thank you for pronouncing me dead already - LOL. I am nowhere near Bolivar and about 30 miles north of Galveston on the mainland. Gotta go make lunch.
I can partially understand some folks who were done in by Katrina - forecasters had no idea how high the surge would be, and folks who thought they were high enough found out the hard way they were not. But forecasters now have learned that with surge, size does matter. Anyone failing to heed the surge forecast of 20+ feet is a fool at this point - the only way this was not going to be a historically bad surge event for Galveston Bay was for the eye to landfall east of the bay. It looks now that the odds of that happening are very remote. Basically, folks are betting their lives on a roughly 20 percent chance that the core forecast track is wrong less than 24 hour out. That's insane.
what is your elevation?
Now they’re saying on Channel 13 that lots of folks are staying in the Kemah area and that they haven’t even boarded up.
Kemah is next to the NASA/Clear Lake area and the population in that area has grown A LOT during the last couple of decades.
Lots of people there who haven’t been in a storm similar to this one.
I hope I’m wrong, but this area could be facing a huge tragedy in human life loss.
Prayers for all.
That is one awesome shot.
There is NO water in my area yet, not a drop. That’s why I reported the wind as someone earlier asked me to do. There are tons of people posting here that are 10 miles from me. I’ve evacuated many times and many times not. I’ve lived within 40 miles of the Gulf Coast all of my 55 years.
I HOPE that mandatory evac means that the rescue workers will NOT be dispatched to risk their lives for those who did NOT heed the evacuation command.
I am pretty sure there are numbers & contacts for those ahead of time with hardships & needs for help
Yeah, you are NW of Galveston Bay. 20-25 foot surge will drive 10-15 miles inland from the bay. In other words, unless you are CERTAIN that you are above ANY forecast storm surge for a Cat 5, you are dicing with death. I've lived in Houston, I know the area. Xenalyte is comparitively safe because she lives well above the reach of any surge. You don't. And this could well be a record surge event.
Gotta love the last minute things!/s
Let's stay in touch!
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