Posted on 07/26/2008 8:26:13 AM PDT by bumblethebee
Gallup now has Obama ahead 47-41 and Rasmussen has Obama leading by a 46-40 percent margin. Media bias is certainly a factor but McCain is running a campaign as thrilling as watching paint dry.
How many people have gotten calls from pollsters on their cell phones? Generally, unless you give your cell number out, no one who polls is going to call you. And most people who still have land lines these days are older. And since most of the poll data is from people contacted on land lines, the numbers represent the opinion of older Americans, not 18-35. That’s all I’m saying.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
“Unfortunately this was the same faulty logic...”
Now you’ve done it; introducing truth into a discussion of polls is not tolerated around here. To misquote von Clausewitz, “politics is war by other means,” and like all wars, truth is the first casualty. You won’t make any headway trying to get Freepers to see what the polls are really saying. The amen chorus has its eyes, ears and mind firmly shut.
At least in 2004 Bush and Kerry traded a lead in Rasmussen’s poll several times. McCain has tied Ras’ poll, but he’s NEVER led it, not since Obama got the nomination. And McCain has never even tied Gallup’s poll. The closest he’s come is two points behind. BTW, Gallup, unlike Rasmussen, polls a subset of cell-only households.
Freepers will tell you the polls are meaningless (unless it’s a state poll with McCain ahead, in which case the pollster is a prescient genius) that the Bradley/Wilder effect means that Obama’s really losing big (even though there was no Bradley-Wilder effect in the primaries) that so-and-so in a race decades ago saw a huge lead disappear (ignoring the fact that Bush saw his own huge lead disappear in 2000 so it can happen to Republicans, too) that hispanics and middle-aged women won’t vote for Obama (check the internals) or my personal favorite, “I live in this state and I don’t know anybody who’s voting for Obama, so he’s not winning my state.” (Such self-evident idiocy needs no parenthetical explanation, or at least it shouldn’t.)
Forget retaking the lead. McCain needs to figure out how to GET the lead in the first place. Bottom line is, anybody who knows how to look at polls and see what’s objectively there knows one thing—McCain should be d@mn glad the election is not being held today, and that it wasn’t held at any point since Obama got the nomination, because at no time has McCain been winning.
Reagan and Jimmuh where tied at this point in 80.
The election is far from over, however.
What McCain does is largely irrelevant. If Obama can convince the American people he can protect them, he will win. If he is unable to close the deal, he loses by default.
He had a good week this week. Everyone assumed he would. What remains to be seen is whether or not his bounce has staying power, or if it is solely the basis of the extremely positive press he has received during his coronation trip.
If the bounce wears off, and I personally think it will, McCain is still in good shape and could pull it off.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
I predict no change. McNut is like President Bush for the last year or so. Both are in a coma and don't see any change. Add the Republican party and what have we got. Pure losers. The little McNut has done could put anyone asleep.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
Yes, this election is a referendum on Obama, and up ‘til now, at worst, he has tied McCain.
I think it’s all going to come down to who has the better October surprise. Unless the McCain campaign has something really good up its sleeve, and can get the message out to the people over the din of the media, he will lose. And so far, at least, McCain is sorely lacking a killer instinct. His campaign is making Bob Dole look like an electoral powerhouse in comparison. That isn’t going to cut it, not this year, not against the Obamessiah.
Link is http://www.gallup.com
I haven't responded yet. I thought I'd wait for the convention, but these polls make me think that I might support McCain sooner.
Gallup Daily: Obama by 6, Is There a Europe Effect?
THIS IS A BOUNCE?! The change is within the poll's margin of error of 2%.
Need not say anymore.
Well yeah, the media has to pat themselves on the back by skewing data to make themselves look good.
Remember, they spent MILLIONS promoting Obama, they have a major investment with their Messiah. Most of all, Obama gets “FREE” press coverage one more time, not only in the United States, but around the world.
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