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To: nwrep

“Unfortunately this was the same faulty logic...”

Now you’ve done it; introducing truth into a discussion of polls is not tolerated around here. To misquote von Clausewitz, “politics is war by other means,” and like all wars, truth is the first casualty. You won’t make any headway trying to get Freepers to see what the polls are really saying. The amen chorus has its eyes, ears and mind firmly shut.

At least in 2004 Bush and Kerry traded a lead in Rasmussen’s poll several times. McCain has tied Ras’ poll, but he’s NEVER led it, not since Obama got the nomination. And McCain has never even tied Gallup’s poll. The closest he’s come is two points behind. BTW, Gallup, unlike Rasmussen, polls a subset of cell-only households.

Freepers will tell you the polls are meaningless (unless it’s a state poll with McCain ahead, in which case the pollster is a prescient genius) that the Bradley/Wilder effect means that Obama’s really losing big (even though there was no Bradley-Wilder effect in the primaries) that so-and-so in a race decades ago saw a huge lead disappear (ignoring the fact that Bush saw his own huge lead disappear in 2000 so it can happen to Republicans, too) that hispanics and middle-aged women won’t vote for Obama (check the internals) or my personal favorite, “I live in this state and I don’t know anybody who’s voting for Obama, so he’s not winning my state.” (Such self-evident idiocy needs no parenthetical explanation, or at least it shouldn’t.)

Forget retaking the lead. McCain needs to figure out how to GET the lead in the first place. Bottom line is, anybody who knows how to look at polls and see what’s objectively there knows one thing—McCain should be d@mn glad the election is not being held today, and that it wasn’t held at any point since Obama got the nomination, because at no time has McCain been winning.


65 posted on 07/26/2008 9:30:44 AM PDT by LadyNavyVet (Be a monthly donor.)
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To: LadyNavyVet
Of course McCain isn't winning right now. Obama is ahead and has consistently been ahead by 3-5 points. He should be favored.

The election is far from over, however.

What McCain does is largely irrelevant. If Obama can convince the American people he can protect them, he will win. If he is unable to close the deal, he loses by default.

He had a good week this week. Everyone assumed he would. What remains to be seen is whether or not his bounce has staying power, or if it is solely the basis of the extremely positive press he has received during his coronation trip.

If the bounce wears off, and I personally think it will, McCain is still in good shape and could pull it off.

67 posted on 07/26/2008 9:36:06 AM PDT by comebacknewt
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To: LadyNavyVet
Right now, the only way Obama could lose is if he really makes a big gaffe at the Convention or he blows the debates. Right now I don't see it happening. The MSM will do their best to protect him. Bottom line is the election is Obama's to lose.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

68 posted on 07/26/2008 9:36:54 AM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: LadyNavyVet; isrul

You defeatist penny henny’s just don’t get it and your negativity severely blinds you.

The fact that McCain, who “everyone” touts as “the worst candidate ever” or, is “running the worst campiagn ever”, is this close to Obama says OBAMA IS IN DEEP DOO DOO! He should be up by 20-25 points AND IS NOT!!!


92 posted on 07/26/2008 10:37:30 AM PDT by AmericaUnited
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