Posted on 01/29/2008 8:38:37 PM PST by jdm
With more than two-thirds of the precincts reporting, John McCain has won an impressive victory in Florida's Republican primary. Many people questioned whether Senator McCain could win a closed GOP contest, as up to now he had won in New Hampshire and South Carolina through the assistance of crossover voting from Democrats and independents. Those questions have now been answered, at least in Florida.
What does this mean for the Super Tuesday contests coming up in a week? It appears that the race has narrowed down to McCain and Romney. McCain will enter February 5th with more delegates, but only 10% of what he needs to win the nomination. He will have a great deal of momentum and credibility, and Romney will have relinquished some. Almost certainly, McCain becomes the favorite to win the nomination.
However, Romney has a better national organization and more resources to run in 21 states simultaneously. He can negate some of the momentum and make this a delegate chase, and could very possibly come out of next week with a delegate lead. It won't be easy, especially since the McCain win in Florida will only bolster McCain's lead in the coastal states.
If the race really does come down to McCain and Romney, then Romney could also benefit from conservative disaffection with McCain. In the GOP, there exists a very real resistance to McCain, and that could find itself focusing on Romney as the anti-McCain. It's not the most positive phenomenon, but Romney may find it essential for a national victory.
Rudy Giuliani may hold the key. Rumors have floated that Giuliani will withdraw and endorse McCain. If he does, that may be enough to push McCain even further towards inevitability -- or it may not have any effect at all. Rudy's speech in Florida strongly hinted that he has come to the end of the road. If so, we will know soon; the Republicans will debate in California tomorrow night, and Rudy won't bother to appear unless he plans to contest elections on Super Tuesday.
At least for this evening, John McCain deserves some accolades. He hung tough and showed he could beat the field in a closed primary, and not by an insignificant amount, as his vote gap over Romney already exceeds 70,000.
UPDATE: McCain, in his victory speech, made a very clear attempt to be gracious towards all of the candidates, including Romney, and reach out to Reagan-coalition conservatives. Rumor has it that McCain is considering a visit to CPAC next week. I hope he does make an appearance there and speak as honestly and forthrightly about his candidacy with the foot soldiers of conservative activism. If he does win the nomination, he will need those activists behind him.
UPDATE II: He also insists that judges must understand their limited role in applying law and not creating policy. I wouldn't be surprised if that didn't get added after the John Fund article.
Mitch McConnell.
That being said, most national elections over the past 10-12 years, and many state elections, have been decided by only 1-3%. So, this vote appears to fall right into that mold.
Of course, the liberals and “independents” who voted for McCain to steal the GOP nomination today can’t vote for him and Obama/Hillary in November. They’ll go back to voting democrat for that election.
“as a conservative, you CAN get the attention of John McCain.”
Yes, and when he hears us, he will do exactly th opposite of what we want him to.
Isn’t the NYT holding a scandal story of McCain?
My response:
If they are, they will hold onto it as a safeguard. If McLame wins the nomination, you can count on the media turning on him in a heartbeat, led by the NYSlimes. Endorsement or no endorsement, if it comes down to McLame vs. Hitlery or McLame vs Saint Barack, you can bet they will use every liberal tactic to destroy McLame.
No one is going to come out of a brokered convention but those already running. And frankly, the only person I see coming out of a brokered convention is John McCain. It’s very obvious that he’s got a lovefest with Huckabee going, and nothing is going to change that.
I posted this in another thread, but it's worth repeating, McCain is bound to lose 1-3% of the Republican vote (and I think I'm being conservative here) from the conservative base that refuses to vote for him. I know that he thinks we're all lunatics and that he can win without us, but considering that the elections have been within the 1-3% differential you mentioned, McCain would be toast.
If either Hillary or Obama get the nod, they will have the liberal base locked up and will only have to fight for the mushy independent vote--which pretty much splits 50%-50% between the parties. In McCain's case, he has to win over BOTH the independents and the conservative base. He loses the election right there.
I hope conservatives can be adults. McCain is 70% conservative. He will tick you off 30% of the time. But Hillary is 6% conservative and Obama is 2% conservative. Do you want to be responsible for turning the country over to them??
HELP!!!!!!!!!!!! McCAIN WON— CONSERVATISM WHERE ARE YOU?
Conservatives won’t be responsible for nominating a buffoon who can’t possibly win. The crowning of Her Thighness will not be on us, but on the RINOs who are hijacking the party. The conservative base will not continue to be taken for granted as the country circles the drain of socialism and government largesse.
Loved Regan, but take another look at his record. The republican party has always, always needed a coalition of moderates and conservative democratic crossover voters, please reconsider the get all or nothing idea about the man at the top of the ticket. Reagan god bless him had many successes, but he also presided over deficit spending and the Brady Bill. There is never going to be a person elected who will tally up a 100% conservative score. Think about the many pro-life Catholics who vote republican but agree with the democrats on government spending to help the so called less fortunate and the many evangelicals who opposed the endangered species roll back during the nineties. You have to have a coalition and compromise to get anything at all. The only true conservative position is limited government, everything else is up for debate. And you dont get to call any one dumb because they are not throwing a hissy fit. Get off your butt and run for office, and if you can get more folks to line up in your corner and support your positions send me a post and I’ll send you a campaign contribution. If your so discouraged do something, cause doing absolutely nothing but crying in your beer is not going to help. God bless you and cheer up, your still breathing Freedom loving American air. Only liberals are allowed to cry and become despondent, conservatives fight till the dirt falls on their face.
McCain is feeling very well this evening. I often wondered what sleazy politicians did for recreation.
McCain according to Dick Morris, has the best chance to beat the democratic candidate.
McCain’s buddies are democrats not republicans.
CONSERVATISM, SO LONG FOR FOUR YEARS
Your analysis is dead on!
My feeling is that the Huckster has been in this game for the VP slot. He know’s he’s splitting the social conservatives and taking votes from Romney which give McAmnesty the edge. Huck’s dream is the bottom of the ticket. (McCain/Huckabee) But is Rudy doing the same by endorsing McAmnesty? A fight for the VP slot.
I was a “Fred-Head” but I’ve switched to Romney because he’s the most conservative left in the race. He’s also NOT a DC insider which gives him an edge over Mrs. Bill Clinton and B. Hussein Obama.
Hopefully the Rudy voters will turn out to be fiscal conservatives (the only “conservatives” Rudy was getting) and swing toward Romney in spite of the endorsement.
As I’ve posted before, I will NOT vote for McCain under pretty much ANY circumstance. (Maybe if Hunter or Thompson is the VP....McCain had cancer and is pretty old. He may not serve his full term.)
Thanks for the good insight!
Did anyone think that the MSM and the open borders lobby was just going to give the election up without a fight? I think Mitt is a master at work and a lot tougher than you all give him credit for. Mitt has come from a political unknown and is right on track to become president.
I think Mitt is right in line with the overall plan. He is doing this campaign by the numbers. He has knocked off most of the competetion one by one. He has done it in such a way as not to alienate the supporters of the ones knocked off.
I would have liked to see him win in Florida, but look what he accomplished, he knocked off Rudy, made McCain bring all of his Amnesty first buddies out in the open, and more importantly he has bankrupted McCain.
I think this is all part of the plan. Mitt is more organized in every other part of the country than McCain. He knows exactly where to hit for most effect.
No prize fighter ever thought he would win without getting a bloody nose. Mitt isn’t giving up and neither should you.
Oh, I’d vote for McCain.
Right after he convinces Ronald Reagan to run as his VP.
Yep, and all those “independents” will swing back to the Dem party in November.
Conservatives as Charlie Brown. McCain as Lucy with the football.
An impressive election rigging job...
And you dont think there are conservative independents in fla?
I could use a 5 pint spread, if McCain is to be the nominee.
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