An Impressive Win (McCain)

Captain's Quarters ^ | Jan. 29, 2008 | Ed Morrissey

[jdm]

With more than two-thirds of the precincts reporting, John McCain has won an impressive victory in Florida's Republican primary. Many people questioned whether Senator McCain could win a closed GOP contest, as up to now he had won in New Hampshire and South Carolina through the assistance of crossover voting from Democrats and independents. Those questions have now been answered, at least in Florida.

What does this mean for the Super Tuesday contests coming up in a week? It appears that the race has narrowed down to McCain and Romney. McCain will enter February 5th with more delegates, but only 10% of what he needs to win the nomination. He will have a great deal of momentum and credibility, and Romney will have relinquished some. Almost certainly, McCain becomes the favorite to win the nomination.

However, Romney has a better national organization and more resources to run in 21 states simultaneously. He can negate some of the momentum and make this a delegate chase, and could very possibly come out of next week with a delegate lead. It won't be easy, especially since the McCain win in Florida will only bolster McCain's lead in the coastal states.

If the race really does come down to McCain and Romney, then Romney could also benefit from conservative disaffection with McCain. In the GOP, there exists a very real resistance to McCain, and that could find itself focusing on Romney as the anti-McCain. It's not the most positive phenomenon, but Romney may find it essential for a national victory.

Rudy Giuliani may hold the key. Rumors have floated that Giuliani will withdraw and endorse McCain. If he does, that may be enough to push McCain even further towards inevitability -- or it may not have any effect at all. Rudy's speech in Florida strongly hinted that he has come to the end of the road. If so, we will know soon; the Republicans will debate in California tomorrow night, and Rudy won't bother to appear unless he plans to contest elections on Super Tuesday.

At least for this evening, John McCain deserves some accolades. He hung tough and showed he could beat the field in a closed primary, and not by an insignificant amount, as his vote gap over Romney already exceeds 70,000.

UPDATE: McCain, in his victory speech, made a very clear attempt to be gracious towards all of the candidates, including Romney, and reach out to Reagan-coalition conservatives. Rumor has it that McCain is considering a visit to CPAC next week. I hope he does make an appearance there and speak as honestly and forthrightly about his candidacy with the foot soldiers of conservative activism. If he does win the nomination, he will need those activists behind him.

UPDATE II: He also insists that judges must understand their limited role in applying law and not creating policy. I wouldn't be surprised if that didn't get added after the John Fund article.

[Secret Agent Man]

No thanks, John. Save yourself a trip.

[madison10]

Awww, man don’t we have enough John McCain won threads? Sigh.

[counterpunch]

McCain was assisted by hundreds of thousands of Democrats and independents who switched party identification over the last 2 months so they could influence the Republican race, since the Democrats pulled out of Florida.
Had it not been for that, Romney would have won.

[Khepri]

Impressive?

BWAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAA!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[svcw]

How is 36% to 31% impressive?
Yea, its winner takes all but a 5 pint spread - impressive?

[umgud]

We’ve already lost Thompson, Hunter and Tancredo, the most conservative of the Republican field. While Ronmey didn’t get trounced in FL by McCain, he certainly would have, had Guiliani not been splitting the moderate or RINO vote. Guiliani is pulling out and whether he endorses McCain or not, most of his voters will gravitate toward McCain.

Also of note is that FL was a closed primary and would have produced a much larger McCain win had it not been, but will be the case in many states on super Tuesday when a lot of independents and other crossovers jump into the party.

Suffice it to say, I’ll be surprised if McCain doesn’t get the nomination…… barring something unpredictable as sometimes happens in elections.

[technomage]

Awww, man don’t we have enough John McCain won threads? Sigh

Let them have their fun while they can.

Patience is a virtue.

[dawn53]

The first thing that needs to be cleared up is this wasn’t really a “closed” primary in the truest sense. The Tampa paper reported weeks ago that “thousands” were changing party affiliation. Some to Republican (from Ind. or Dem.) and some the other way. But let it be known that you could change party affiliation, as long as you did it before the primary.

http://www2.tbo.com/content/2008/jan/05/me-thousands-of-voters-change-party-affiliation/

[Salvation]

for later.

[patriciamary]

Conservative better start learning Spanish

[libbylu]

Actually i think the huck pulled off a lot more of the potential from Mitt.

[ParaVet93]

Care to provide any evidence or links to back this statement up? All I can say is remember how we stopped the immigration bill last year dead in it’s tracks. The DC GOP establishment shuddered at the outcry and quickly changed their tune. Do you think you’ll have that same power with Hillary as president?

[technomage]

How is 36% to 31% impressive?

Correct. If 3% voted differently, Romney would have won.

That being said, most national elections over the past 10-12 years, and many state elections, have been decided by only 1-3%. So, this vote appears to fall right into that mold.

[Romneyfor President2008]

I will boycott the GOP convention!!

Conservatives created the Republican party in the last 20 years. What we created we have the right to destroy. It's our party to do as we wish!

Give the Dems the Presidency for 4 years. Who cares? Fight them in Congress. But NEVER surrender the party to the likes of McCain, and homos like Giuliani and Crist. That is WORSE than giving the Dems the Presidency. Worse is to give the enemy the satisfaction that they earned the Presidency. Worse is to surrender the party to liberals and fight under them.

I call for conservatives to conduct a scorch earth policy and destroy the party. Purge the party of liberals, and in 4 years, a stronger conservative party will emerge from the ashes.

No surrender! No retreat!

[Prokopton]

He also insists that judges must understand their limited role in applying law and not creating policy

Yea, as long as they don't take this "limited role" thing too seriously, like Alito.

[ilgipper]

I don’t think Rudy voters naturally go to McCain. Some certainly will due to security issues. I voted for Mitt today, but my significant other voted for Rudy. She would have been a Mitt supporter w/o Rudy in the Race.

That issue aside, McCain has huge momentum going into next week where he had an edge going in. We can only hope for a hell of a debate by Romney, or a huge McCain slip up.

[Kickass Conservative]

Si...

[libbylu]

Sorry Ed. There is nothing he can do to change my mind.

[Verginius Rufus]

The pundits say that whoever wins the SC Republican primary is always the nominee, so I don't know why we are wasting money having the other states vote.

It's really down to two options, McCain or Romney. I'm reminded of Kissinger's comment at the time of the Iran-Iraq War: Too bad they can't both lose.