Posted on 09/20/2007 2:41:32 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
After officially declaring his candidacy, U.S. Senator Fred Thompson moves ahead of former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani in the race for the 2008 Republican presidential nomination. One-third (32%) of those who say they will vote in a Republican primary or caucus will vote for Thompson while 28 percent will vote for Giuliani. Much further back is John McCain, who continues his downward slide with 11 percent saying they would vote for the Arizona Senator, and 9 percent who say they would vote for former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney.
On the Democratic side, Senator Hillary Clinton continues to build on her large lead. Just under half (46%) of those who would vote in a Democratic primary or caucus would vote for the former First Lady while one-quarter (25%) would vote for Illinois Senator Barack Obama. Former vice president candidate and North Carolina Senator John Edwards is further back with 14 percent saying they would vote for him. No other candidate is in double digits.
These are some of the results of a Harris Poll of 2,372 U.S. adults surveyed online by Harris Interactive® between September 6 and 14, 2007. This survey included 769 adults who expect to vote in a Democratic primary or caucus and 504 adults who expect to vote in a Republican primary or caucus. Like all polls conducted well before an election, this should not be read as a prediction. Rather, it is a snap shot of the presidential “horse race”, at an early stage in the race.
Votes by Generation
One interesting difference is the support of the different generations. On the Democratic side, Senator Obama does better than Senator Clinton among Echo Boomers (those aged 18 to 29). While 42 percent of this youngest generation will vote for him, 37 percent will vote for her. However, in the age group that is most likely to actually vote, Matures (those 61 and older), Senator Clinton leads Senator Obama by a very wide margin (56% versus 16%). In fact, one in five Matures (21%) will vote for John Edwards, so he is ahead of Senator Obama as well in this key age group.
On the Republican side a similar difference occurs. One-third (33%) of both Echo Boomers and Generation Xers (30 to 41) will vote for Rudy Giuliani while Fred Thompson garners just 8 percent and 22 percent of these generations respectively. But, again among those generations more likely to vote, Fred Thompson is ahead. It is close among Baby Boomers (those aged 42 to 60) as one-third (33%) of this generation will vote for Giuliani and 37 percent will vote for Thompson. Among Matures, the lead is greater – 44 percent will vote for Thompson and 16 percent will vote for Giuliani. Interestingly, one in five (20%) of the youngest generation, Echo Boomers, say they will vote for the oldest candidate, John McCain.
Consideration
Before being asked to pick their first choice in the primary elections, all adults surveyed were also shown a list of all the main candidates in both parties and some other well-known Republicans and Democrats, and asked which of them they would consider voting for. They could name as many people, in both parties, as they wished. On the Democratic side, three-quarters of Democrats (76%) would consider Hillary Clinton while over half (58%) would consider Barack Obama and just under half (48%) would consider Al Gore. Among Independents, it’s a tie as 35 percent would consider Hillary Clinton and 34 percent would consider Barack Obama.
On the Republican side, just over half (52%) of Republicans would consider Rudy Giuliani and just under half (46%) would consider Fred Thompson. The next two Republicans are not even candidates as 39 percent of Republicans would consider former Secretary of State Colin Powell and 34 percent would consider current Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. Among Independents, 28 percent would each consider Rudy Giuliani and Colin Powell while one-quarter (23%) would consider John McCain and 20 percent Fred Thompson. Overall, more would consider a Democratic candidate over a Republican candidate but the gap has narrowed. In May, 71 percent would consider one of the Democratic candidates while 58 percent would consider one of the Republicans – a gap of 13 percent. Over the summer this has narrowed and today the gap is just six points – 66 percent would consider a Democratic leader and 60 percent would consider a Republican leader.
So What?
Now that Fred Thompson has ended his “flirtation” with the presidential race, it will be interesting to watch as he participates in debates and is actually campaigning. Does his rise to the top hold or was it pure star power? Time will tell. On the Democratic side, it appears that the race really is Hillary Clinton’s to lose at this point as her ever expanding lead is now at 21 percent. The two running in second place for each party’s nomination currently are tops with the youngest of voters. Barack Obama feels like one of them – his youth and vitality are something they can latch onto and relate to. Rudy Giuliani is one the main figures from the one major national event that has shaped their lives so far – September 11th. They feel drawn to him because of that. But, as both camps are aware, these youngest voters actually vote in the lowest of numbers. Can either campaign translate their popularity into turnout come primary or caucus day?
(See site for actual poll breakdown)
If this fairytale makes your day more power to you. But be advised that, that younger generation you speak of has been claimed by a lot of would be presidents only to find out that they are quite loud but don’t vote in large numbers. Us old buzzards however turn out in droves. Sorry!
I won’t vote for that ticket, and there isn’t a stronger Thompson supporter around.
that Fred sure doesn’t know how to campaign...stumbling all the way to a lead
Thank ypu for your vote and paticipation in shaping America’s future.
- President Clinton will send you her thanks.
another “vote for rudy or we’re all gonna die” prognostication? fred doesn’t need rudy as a running mate to beat hillary.
Why don’t you go say that to Jim Robinson?
He says he won’t vote for Giuliani either.
I happen to think Giuliani would be worse for this country than the Hildebeast.
Because I wrote it to you.
JR has stated that he will not support rudy for POTUS not the VP so you are assuming facts not in evidence.
Personnaly, I will vote for Fred, but if I don’t pervail, I will vote for anyone but Hillary!
As far as your last statement you are wrong but don’t worry. American taxpayers will pay the bill.
I do understand your sentiment but I have to make my decisions about the future course of America based on something else.
-bill
No, Jim said he WOULD NOT VOTE FOR HIM.
I would assume that meant for any position.
I refuse to vote to put that creep so close to the Presidency.
Agreed and that's what makes this country so great!
I must agree with that. Furthermore, I don't think campaigning is the best way to beat her. It isn't a fair fight. (If it were, Hillary Clinton would not be IN it.)
The best way to beat her is to investigate her campaign financing practices, and collect enough evidence to prosecute her ass.
Agreed. If Giuliani is on the ticket, I go elsewhere.
You got that right. I remember back during the Clinton Administration, people would talk about the government doing this or that and spending Billions of Dollars to ensure Clinton's precious legacy as if that was a rational reason to do anything. Who really cares what people think of Bill Clinton in twenty or thirty years?
If a President wants to advocate some program to better the country, we can have a discussion. I think that nine times out of ten the proposals are wrong-headed and ultimately destructive, but that is a matter for policy debate. If the purpose of the program is just to make people feel better about a former President, how do you even argue with that? It is just so stupid, you realize that anybody advocating it has to be so far removed from reality that argument is futile.
We would do better selecting our President at random out of the phone book than we do by selecting from the group of people who want to be President so bad they will do anything to make it happen. These are the very last people you want in control of anything.
But given we are not going to start drawing names out of a hat anytime soon, you go for the guy who seems to have ambition balanced by humility, and who will not run over his mother to get into the White House. Fred Thompson is the pick of the litter, by that criteria.
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