Posted on 09/20/2007 2:41:32 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
After officially declaring his candidacy, U.S. Senator Fred Thompson moves ahead of former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani in the race for the 2008 Republican presidential nomination. One-third (32%) of those who say they will vote in a Republican primary or caucus will vote for Thompson while 28 percent will vote for Giuliani. Much further back is John McCain, who continues his downward slide with 11 percent saying they would vote for the Arizona Senator, and 9 percent who say they would vote for former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney.
On the Democratic side, Senator Hillary Clinton continues to build on her large lead. Just under half (46%) of those who would vote in a Democratic primary or caucus would vote for the former First Lady while one-quarter (25%) would vote for Illinois Senator Barack Obama. Former vice president candidate and North Carolina Senator John Edwards is further back with 14 percent saying they would vote for him. No other candidate is in double digits.
These are some of the results of a Harris Poll of 2,372 U.S. adults surveyed online by Harris Interactive® between September 6 and 14, 2007. This survey included 769 adults who expect to vote in a Democratic primary or caucus and 504 adults who expect to vote in a Republican primary or caucus. Like all polls conducted well before an election, this should not be read as a prediction. Rather, it is a snap shot of the presidential “horse race”, at an early stage in the race.
Votes by Generation
One interesting difference is the support of the different generations. On the Democratic side, Senator Obama does better than Senator Clinton among Echo Boomers (those aged 18 to 29). While 42 percent of this youngest generation will vote for him, 37 percent will vote for her. However, in the age group that is most likely to actually vote, Matures (those 61 and older), Senator Clinton leads Senator Obama by a very wide margin (56% versus 16%). In fact, one in five Matures (21%) will vote for John Edwards, so he is ahead of Senator Obama as well in this key age group.
On the Republican side a similar difference occurs. One-third (33%) of both Echo Boomers and Generation Xers (30 to 41) will vote for Rudy Giuliani while Fred Thompson garners just 8 percent and 22 percent of these generations respectively. But, again among those generations more likely to vote, Fred Thompson is ahead. It is close among Baby Boomers (those aged 42 to 60) as one-third (33%) of this generation will vote for Giuliani and 37 percent will vote for Thompson. Among Matures, the lead is greater – 44 percent will vote for Thompson and 16 percent will vote for Giuliani. Interestingly, one in five (20%) of the youngest generation, Echo Boomers, say they will vote for the oldest candidate, John McCain.
Consideration
Before being asked to pick their first choice in the primary elections, all adults surveyed were also shown a list of all the main candidates in both parties and some other well-known Republicans and Democrats, and asked which of them they would consider voting for. They could name as many people, in both parties, as they wished. On the Democratic side, three-quarters of Democrats (76%) would consider Hillary Clinton while over half (58%) would consider Barack Obama and just under half (48%) would consider Al Gore. Among Independents, it’s a tie as 35 percent would consider Hillary Clinton and 34 percent would consider Barack Obama.
On the Republican side, just over half (52%) of Republicans would consider Rudy Giuliani and just under half (46%) would consider Fred Thompson. The next two Republicans are not even candidates as 39 percent of Republicans would consider former Secretary of State Colin Powell and 34 percent would consider current Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. Among Independents, 28 percent would each consider Rudy Giuliani and Colin Powell while one-quarter (23%) would consider John McCain and 20 percent Fred Thompson. Overall, more would consider a Democratic candidate over a Republican candidate but the gap has narrowed. In May, 71 percent would consider one of the Democratic candidates while 58 percent would consider one of the Republicans – a gap of 13 percent. Over the summer this has narrowed and today the gap is just six points – 66 percent would consider a Democratic leader and 60 percent would consider a Republican leader.
So What?
Now that Fred Thompson has ended his “flirtation” with the presidential race, it will be interesting to watch as he participates in debates and is actually campaigning. Does his rise to the top hold or was it pure star power? Time will tell. On the Democratic side, it appears that the race really is Hillary Clinton’s to lose at this point as her ever expanding lead is now at 21 percent. The two running in second place for each party’s nomination currently are tops with the youngest of voters. Barack Obama feels like one of them – his youth and vitality are something they can latch onto and relate to. Rudy Giuliani is one the main figures from the one major national event that has shaped their lives so far – September 11th. They feel drawn to him because of that. But, as both camps are aware, these youngest voters actually vote in the lowest of numbers. Can either campaign translate their popularity into turnout come primary or caucus day?
(See site for actual poll breakdown)
Behind McCain, don’t forget that...
That’s gonna leave a mark...
LOL!
If you believe that Pa or NH are “battleground states” that can be won by any GOP candidate, then there is no reason to debate this any further.
None at all.
Does Hillary plan to bring back the furniture and silverware, or would she steal some more?
Did they ever shoot that burned out rummy’s ashes out of a cannon?
We shall consider them in our hearts as words from the gods themselves...
CAREFUL NAIVE!
YOU DARE CHALLENGE THE MIGHTY PAULINATI!
You may bring down the curse of a thousand posts...
Ever flirt with the thought of Thompson/Rudy?
Don’t know how the primaries will play out, or who would accept what, but it might be a good combination.
And I wouldn’t feel bad pulling that lever.
“Did they ever shoot that burned out rummy’s ashes out of a cannon?”
An excellent description. Back in thr late ‘60s, early ‘70s, I thought he was so cool.
I grew up; he didn’t.
“His ashes were fired from a 150 ft tower topped by a red fist with two thumbs - the symbol of Thompson’s free-wheeling, first-person gonzo journalism.
Johnny Depp, who played Thompson in the film of his book Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas, paid for the cannon.”
believe me, it will be Giuliani.
Yep.
Hey, thanks!
>An excellent description. Back in the late ‘60s, early ‘70s, I thought he was so cool.
So did I. So did I.
I even bought his book “Hell’s Angels” back in the late 60s when I was in HS.
I figured that it was alcohol and pills/drugs that contributed to his demise. A shame.
Here we go again. “If a conservative runs as a conservative, he will win”. ...Rush Limbaugh
What the hell do we gain by running a liberal against a liberal?
“The longest journey begins with a single step.” Ron Paul has taken a big first step as he has moved off the bottom of the polls and is getting close to challenging Romney. I think his momentum will continue to build and he will crack 10% by the end of Oct.
I thought it was interesting that Ron Paul’s support was highest in the youngest age group and decreased as it went to the older age brackets. Thompson was just the opposite. A possible explanation for this is that as the groups get older, they tend to get their news from the MSM. Another explanation could be that the younger generations realize that if we continue to follow the politics of the past, they will be stuck with the bill.
You are trying to promote a candidate that Jim Robinson doesn't approve of and everyone sees that.
There is only ONE candidate in this race that can old our coalition together AND appeal to open-minded Democrats. (That's just one example...there are more and will be a LOT more following.) And that main ain't Rudy, no matter how you slice it. Putting all the social issue stuff aside, Rudy is the only candidate on our side that is absolutely GUARANTEED to lose. He will be ripped to shreds, swift-boated, and beaten within an inch of his life in the general. The '9/11 firefighters for truth' are right around the corner to be trotted out after the election. Anyone who doesn't see the kind of damage that will do to a candidate who's only claim to fame is 9/11, either isn't paying attention or isn't being honest.
If you can't take off the Hillary-fear-goggles, stop your knee from jerking, and see the landscape for what it holds, I can't help you, but you need to stop trying to convince people against the only candidate that can hold our coalition together.
And for your information, Fred Thompson will be the most formidable candidate we have run since Reagan. If there is any Republican candidate that can win Ohio and by a decisive margin, it's Fred Thompson. No matter who they elected in 2006.
A possible explanation for this is that as the groups get older, they tend to get their news from the MSM
Can’t agree. I am a prime example as are every other over 40 Freeper and thats a bunch.
Rather its all of the stoners and teenagers who don’t really know anything but they do know how to repeat things that are told to them, aka, drinking the kool aid.
Who is backing Obama?
Of course there are a hell of a lot of my generation that are unthinkable liberal trash, as well.
However, that to the side, when RP does NOT break into double digits in October, will you then support Fred, or will you stay on the island of lost dreams? :)
>Rudy is the only candidate on our side that is absolutely GUARANTEED to lose.
Damn straight. It seems like so many are drinking the MSM swill/kool aid again about rudy being the chosen son that they aren’t seeing the disaster that awaits us.
Rudy will lose in a landslide. - He cannot even deliver his own state from the grip of a Socialist carpetbagger from the South.
And that is a pathetic commentary on the political divide in this country today.
My mistake. I keep eliminating McLame because I just can’t conceive of him as a serious candidate.
They are so many states in play in 2008. For me Ohio is the most important. But, revisting the results of 2008, I didn’t realize Pennsylvania was a s close as it was. New Hampshire was extermely close. So the election certainly is winnable.
If our side gets it head out of its butt and starts taking on the issues forcefully. I looked at the rasmussen poll on Hillary care this morning. the internals provide some positive news. Most people do not want government run health care. Thompson could be in good position on this. Trial lawyers and frivilous lawsuits are a major reason for high health care costs. Being a former trial lawyer himself, Thompson could stand up and apologize for his past sins and vow to do what is best for the nation. He could promise to take on the trial lawyers so that health care is affordable to all Americans.
Yeah, the whole Metrosexual Flip-Flopper from Massachusetts thing worked out really well in 2004. Good luck with that.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.