Majority of Republicans Doubt Theory of Evolution

Gallup News Service ^ | 11 June 2007 | Frank Newport

[Alter Kaker]

PRINCETON, NJ -- The majority of Republicans in the United States do not believe the theory of evolution is true and do not believe that humans evolved over millions of years from less advanced forms of life. This suggests that when three Republican presidential candidates at a May debate stated they did not believe in evolution, they were generally in sync with the bulk of the rank-and-file Republicans whose nomination they are seeking to obtain.

Independents and Democrats are more likely than Republicans to believe in the theory of evolution. But even among non-Republicans there appears to be a significant minority who doubt that evolution adequately explains where humans came from.

The data from several recent Gallup studies suggest that Americans' religious behavior is highly correlated with beliefs about evolution. Those who attend church frequently are much less likely to believe in evolution than are those who seldom or never attend. That Republicans tend to be frequent churchgoers helps explain their doubts about evolution.

The data indicate some seeming confusion on the part of Americans on this issue. About a quarter of Americans say they believe both in evolution's explanation that humans evolved over millions of years and in the creationist explanation that humans were created as is about 10,000 years ago.

Broad Patterns of Belief in Evolution

The theory of evolution as an explanation for the origin and development of life has been controversial for centuries, and, in particular, since the 1859 publication of Charles Darwin's famous The Origin of Species. Although many scientists accept evolution as the best theoretical explanation for diversity in forms of life on Earth, the issue of its validity has risen again as an important issue in the current 2008 presidential campaign. Two recent Republican debates have included questions to the candidates about evolution. Three candidates -- Sam Brownback, Mike Huckabee, and Tom Tancredo -- indicated in response to a question during the May 3 debate that they did not believe in the theory of evolution, although they have attempted to clarify their positions in the weeks since.

Several recent Gallup Polls conducted in May and June indicate that a significant number of Americans have doubts about the theory of evolution.  

One such question was included in a May Gallup Panel survey:

Now thinking about how human beings came to exist on Earth, do you, personally, believe in evolution, or not?

	Yes, believe in evolution	No, do not	No opinion
2007 May 21-24		49	48	2

It is important to note that this question included a specific reference to "thinking about how human beings came to exist on Earth . . ." that oriented the respondents toward an explicit consideration of the implication of evolution for man's origin. Results may have been different without this introductory phrase.

With that said, Americans' responses to this question are essentially split down the middle. About half say they do believe in evolution and about half say they do not.

A second question included in a June 1-3 USA Today/Gallup poll asked about evolution side by side with a similar question about creationism:

Next, we'd like to ask about your views on two different explanations for the origin and development of life on earth. Do you think -- [ITEMS ROTATED] -- is -- [ROTATED: definitely true, probably true, probably false, (or) definitely false]?

A. Evolution, that is, the idea that human beings developed over millions of years from less advanced forms of life

	Definite- ly true	Probably true	Probably false	Definite- ly false	No opinion		Total true	Total false
2007 Jun 1-3		18%	35	16	28	3	53	44

B. Creationism, that is, the idea that God created human beings pretty much in their present form at one time within the last 10,000 years

	Definite- ly true	Probably true	Probably false	Definite- ly false	No opinion		Total true	Total false
2007 Jun 1-3		39%	27	16	15	3	66	31

These results are similar to those from the question asked in May. A little more than half of Americans say evolution -- as defined in this question wording -- is definitely or probably true. Forty-four percent say that it is probably or definitely false.  

In contrast, even more Americans, two-thirds, say the theory of creationism is definitely or probably true.

A separate Gallup Poll trend question -- also asked in May -- gave Americans three choices about human beings' origins. Responses to this question found that 43% of Americans choose the alternative closest to the creationist perspective, that "God created human beings pretty much in their present form at one time within the last 10,000 years or so." A substantial 38% say human beings evolved, but with God guiding the process. Another 14% favored an interpretation of evolution arguing that God had no part in the process, leaving a total of 52% who say humans evolved with or without God's direction.

Which of the following statements comes closest to your views on the origin and development of human beings -- [ROTATE 1-3/3-1: 1) Human beings have developed over millions of years from less advanced forms of life, but God guided this process, 2) Human beings have developed over millions of years from less advanced forms of life, but God had no part in this process, 3) God created human beings pretty much in their present form at one time within the last 10,000 years or so]?

	Man developed, with God guiding	Man developed, but God had no part in process	God created man in present form	Other/ No opinion
	%	%	%	%
2007 May 10-13	38	14		43	4
2006 May 8-11	36	13		46	5
2004 Nov 7-10	38	13	45	4
2001 Feb 19-21		37	12	45	5
1999 Aug 24-26	40	9	47		4
1997 Nov 6-9	39	10	44	7
1993 Jun 23-26	35		11	47	7
1982 Jan	38	9	44	9

To summarize the results of these three questions about evolution and human origins:

• Across the three question wordings, the data show consistently that about half of Americans agree with the theory of evolution, believe that the theory of evolution is probably or definitely true, or believe that humans developed over million of years with or without God's guidance.

• Belief in the idea that humans were created pretty much as is 10,000 years ago is somewhat more dependent on the way in which this concept is measured. A little more than 4 out of 10 Americans -- when presented with three alternatives -- say they believe that God created humans in their present form 10,000 years ago. At the same time, two-thirds of Americans in a stand-alone question say they believe in the theory of "creationism" -- defined as the idea that humans were created in their present form 10,000 years ago.

It might seem contradictory to believe that humans were created in their present form at one time within the past 10,000 years and at the same time believe that humans developed over millions of years from less advanced forms of life. But, based on an analysis of the two side-by-side questions asked this month about evolution and creationism, it appears that a substantial number of Americans hold these conflicting views.

View of Evolution and View of Creationism Numbers Represent % of Total Sample
		View of Creationism
		Definitely true	Probably true	Probably false	Definitely false
			%	%	%	%
View of Evolution	Definitely true	3	1		2	11
	Probably true	5	14	12	3
		Probably false	6	8	1	1
	Definitely false	24		3	*	1
* Less than 0.5%

These results show that:

• 24% of Americans believe that both the theory of evolution and the theory of creationism are probably or definitely true
• 41% believe that creationism is true, and that evolution is false
• 28% believe that evolution is true, but that creationism is false

• 3% either believe that both are false or have no opinion about at least one of the theories

Without further research, it's not possible to determine the exact thinking process of those who agreed that both the theory of evolution and creationism are true. It may be, however, that some respondents were seeking a way to express their views that evolution may have been initiated by or guided by God, and told the interviewer that they agreed with both evolution and creationism in an effort to express this more complex attitude.

Importance of Religion

It is important to remember that all three questions in this analysis included wording that explicitly focused the respondents on the origin of human beings.

This wording may have made Americans think about the implications of the theory of evolution in terms of humans being special creatures as reflected in religious teachings and in particular in the Judeo-Christian story of human origins as related in the book of Genesis. USA Today recently quoted Christian conservative and former presidential candidate Gary Bauer as saying: "Most of us don't think that we're just apes with trousers."

Thus, it is not surprising to find that many of those who do not believe in the theory of evolution justify that belief with explicitly religious explanations: 

(Asked of those who do not believe in evolution) What is the most important reason why you would say you do not believe in evolution? [OPEN-ENDED]      

	2007 May 21-24
	%
I believe in Jesus Christ	19
I believe in the almighty God, creator of Heaven and Earth		16
Due to my religion and faith	16
Not enough scientific evidence to prove otherwise	14
I believe in what I read in the Bible	12
I'm a Christian	9
I don't believe humans come from beasts/monkeys	3
Other	5
No reason in particular	2
No opinion	3

The majority of these responses are clearly religious in nature. It is fascinating to note that some Americans simply justified their objection to evolution by statements of general faith and belief. Although the New Testament does not include many explicit references to the origin of humans in the words of Jesus, 19% of Americans state that they do not believe in evolution because they believe in Jesus Christ. Other religious justifications focus on statements of belief in God, general faith concerns, references to the Bible, and the statement that "I'm a Christian." A relatively small number of this group justify their disbelief of evolution by saying more specifically that they do not believe that there is enough scientific evidence to prove the theory and/or that they simply do not believe that humans come from beasts or monkeys.

The graph shows the relationship between church attendance and response to the straightforward question of belief in evolution.

The group of Americans who attend church weekly -- about 40% in this sample -- are strongly likely to reject the theory of evolution. The group of Americans who attend church seldom or never -- also about 40% -- have the mirror image opinion and are strongly likely to accept the theory of evolution.

Republicans Most Likely to Reject Evolution

As noted previously, belief in evolution has been injected into the political debate already this year, with much attention given to the fact three Republican presidential candidates answered a debate question by saying that they did not believe in evolution.

It appears that these candidates are, in some ways, "preaching to the choir" in terms of addressing their own party's constituents -- the group that matters when it comes to the GOP primaries. Republicans are much more likely to be religious and attend church than independents or Democrats in general. Therefore, it comes as no great surprise to find that Republicans are also significantly more likely not to believe in evolution than are independents and Democrats. 

Bottom Line

The data in this analysis were measured in the context of questions about the origin and development of human beings. It is apparent that many Americans simply do not like the idea that humans evolved from lower forms of life. This appears to be substantially based on a belief in the story of creation as outlined in the Bible -- that God created humans in a process that, taking the Bible literally, occurred about 10,000 years ago.

Americans who say they do not believe in the theory of evolution are highly likely to justify this belief by reference to religion, Jesus Christ, or the Bible. Furthermore, there is a strong correlation between high levels of personal religiosity and doubts about evolution.

Being religious in America today is strongly related to partisanship, with more religious Americans in general much more likely to be Republicans than to be independents or Democrats. This relationship helps explain the finding that Republicans are significantly more likely than independents or Democrats to say they do not believe in evolution. When three Republican presidential candidates said in a May debate that they did not believe in evolution, the current analysis suggests that many Republicans across the country no doubt agreed.

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,007 adults, aged 18 and older, conducted June 1-3, 2007. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3 percentage points.

For results based on the sample of 203 Catholics, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±8 percentage points.

For results based on the sample of 804 non-Catholics, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

[mnehring]

Maybe I’ll take a line out of the Global Warming playbook and say ‘the debate is over’ and that anyone who doesn’t believe exactly what I think, is a Creation or Evolution denier.. //sarc

[Coyoteman]

Carbon dating reveals the ages of these organisms, which are often in the millions of years as opposed to young-earth creationist’s thousands of years time span.

Slight correction: Radiocarbon dating goes back only about 50,000 years. Other forms of radiometric dating can date things much older.

[tricky_k_1972]

Slight correction: Radiocarbon dating goes back only about 50,000 years. Other forms of radiometric dating can date things much older.

I whole heartedly agree with you there.

Here is another thing for the Biblical literalist to question. Why did God create the Moon, for that mater why did God create Saturn?

If Genesis is taken as literal fact there seems to be no reason for Creation outside the bubble of general Earth space, after all our universe could indeed be that small, it wouldn't necessarily hurt anything.

Why make Creation so big, of what use is it?

It certainly would not contradict the Bible in any way for it to be smaller, so why did he create it?

These are the things that I think we as Christians need to be asking ourselves, not just the Earthly centric question of why all our geology and fossil records are not explained in explicit detail by a world renowned scientist that God so handily had available at the Dawn of Creation to explain to us in explicit literal detail in the here and now.

And here's another little thought problem for you, who's to say that a scientists with even todays knowledge of the universe wont be called a crackpot 30 years from now by an even greater scientist? So how far ahead in time was God suppose to go to give us a better understanding of exactly what he was doing at Creation.

Maybe, just maybe, he gave us a basic outline in Genesis and expects us to figure out the details with the evidence he left us, we are His creation after all, Created in His image.

Maybe He's telling us' "I gave you that brain, NOW USE IT".

There is a whole lot of universe out there, His Creation, for us all to be just concerned with just this little small corner of it.

[razzle]

“Of course evolution happened.”

Every day that passes, the facts from fossils, molecular biology, genetics, etc. are going against you. Its not faith in God that proves Intelligent Design, its faith in Science.

[JSDude1]

Thanks!

There by the grace of God, he is the one whom uses me to “speak” so to say (I have been given the “gift of gab” by him) and if I choose to speak through myself alone, I know I would do more harm than good! thanks for your compliment; I just try to tell the truth (and God told me “don’t go past the knowlege you know”..but what I do KNOW I will tell!!

Keep up the “fight-the-good-fight” to those whom do not know the truth yet/:

[mnehring]

For Young Earthers, my one question I ask is, why did God create stars, millions of light years away, visible to us now? Generally the reply is that God created the universe complete, as if it was created a million years ago..
BUT... if that is the case, why would God create a system that deceives you to believing the Universe is millions of years old when it is less than ten thousand years old.

I don’t believe in a God that purposefully tricks people into doubting Him. I believe in a God that all the Universe glorifies.

[mnehring]

Science teaches us HOW the universe was created. The Bible teaches us WHY. The problem is we sometimes look for the How in the Why and the Why in the How.

[JSDude1]

You keep bringing up the year the number 4350 years ago which I dont HAVE any idea what it has to do with the world-wide flood:

There is mucho evidence such as the “rock layers”: Fossils have everything to do with a world-wide flood (and I believe it was more along the lines of around 6000years ago).

once again fossils are the fossils of animals drown and rapidly burried under layers of mud, just as when you put mud in cup it stratifies, so did these layers.

all the cultures you talk about are decendents of 1 man’s family, that’s the continuity. Nothing says that todays genetic variation of the middle eastern cultures would be the exact same as say their variant brothers in Europe, Asia, Aust or the Americas.

Didn’t they do a study a couple years ago that found that modern humans midocondrial DNA (that from the mother) all seems to point to a “common ancestor”- aka “Midocrondrial Eve”- Really Noah’s wife.

[unspun]

“Midocrondrial Eve”- Really Noah’s wife.

...and in an unbroken line to the true Eve.

[labette]

Wrong thinking is punishable! Right thinking is quickly rewarded!

[Abd al-Rahiim]

Thank you for the correction.

[mnehring]

Re the latter piece, yes, there was a study re mitochondrial DNA, but it wasn’t traced to one man, it shows there was a bottle neck about 140,000 years ago where there were less than a few hundred breeding families (Seven unique mitochondrial lines w/ family variants). The bottleneck is attributed to the Toba eruption.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mitochondrial_DNA_haplogroups

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Seven_Daughters_of_Eve

[driftdiver]

“You are right, although I would clarify that Evolution has been used by “Atheists” to attack religion, Darwin certainly never considered what he wrote as an attack on religion (from what I have read) merely an attempt to understand the Almighty’s work.”

Things are usually pretty simple for me. If I disagree with almost everything someone supports then I ask myself why would I support anything they endorse. Sure we can learn from anyone but I don’t believe you can consider these issues in isolation.

Evolution is a tool of those seeking to destroy religion in the US. America was founded by religious people seeking to exercise their religion.

Are genetics real, yes. Did humans evolve from pond scum or a chemical reaction in a rain drop? No, I don’t believe that is possible.

[tricky_k_1972]

For Young Earthers, my one question I ask is, why did God create stars, millions of light years away, visible to us now? Generally the reply is that God created the universe complete, as if it was created a million years ago.. BUT... if that is the case, why would God create a system that deceives you to believing the Universe is millions of years old when it is less than ten thousand years old.

I don’t believe in a God that purposefully tricks people into doubting Him. I believe in a God that all the Universe glorifies.

EXACTLY! We all know whom the Great Deceiver is and he did not create the Universe, that is Gods other true testament to his most loved Creation, what He Himself created for US.

He gave us dominion over all his Creation, does that mean what amounts to one little speck of dust in one small corner of it? After all He created it.

[Fester Chugabrew]

. . . fantastic sea monsters . . .

Fantastic red herring.

[tricky_k_1972]

Things are usually pretty simple for me. If I disagree with almost everything someone supports then I ask myself why would I support anything they endorse. Sure we can learn from anyone but I don’t believe you can consider these issues in isolation.

Please be very careful with this "simplicity". Christianity was used to suppress and attack Jews (Catholicism) and Christianity was also used as a justification for slavery (Protestantism [my father is a Methodist preacher whom told me about the North and South break up of the Church over slavery]).

We do not hold all Christian teachings in contempt over these false interpretations of God's will.

[Abd al-Rahiim]

Evolution is a tool of those seeking to destroy religion in the US.

How so?

It seems that only creationists make this charge. Many scientists both support evolution and have faith. For example, Dr. Ken Miller, an expert in the Kitzmiller case, stated in the record that he is a Christian and wants his children to follow the same religion. Is he a hypocrite for also ardently advocating against creationism? No. Believing in Christianity and believing in evolution are independent of each other.

As Henry Ward Beecher demonstrated over a century ago, it’s pretty easy to reconcile science with scripture.

[gbs]

“The GOP had to bring on a lot of poorly educated people in order to advance its war. “

Really??? More than 65% percent of the “leaders” and public bought the intelligence that was presented for the case to go to war! So are we all dumb, or did you make a really dumb statement? Do you need a few names, Clinton(worlds smartest woman), Gore(worlds 2nd smartest man), Kennedy(worlds smartest man,LOL) to name a few from the Dem side! Could go on and on adnauseum, but I type very slowly.

[Laissez-faire capitalist]

Yeah, they should buy into watered-down 21st century morality. Yeah, throw in with the declining morality. Just go with the flow...

Sarcasm off.