Posted on 04/12/2006 8:14:42 PM PDT by callmejoe
Al-Qaida Figure Backs Iraqi Insurgents
Top al-Qaida Figure Ayman Al-Zawahri Urges Support for Iraqi Insurgents in Video
The Associated Press (snipped)
CAIRO, Egypt - No. 2 al-Qaida leader Ayman al-Zawahri praised insurgents in Iraq, particularly Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, and called on all Muslims to support them in a video posted Thursday on the Internet.
The video was dated with an Islamic month corresponding to November 2005 and al-Zawahri mentions an Oct. 23 earthquake that hit Pakistan and Afghanistan. But it appeared to be the first time the 28-minute video has been made public.
It was not clear why the video was not released soon after the date it was allegedly filmed. . .
(Excerpt) Read more at abcnews.go.com ...
http://english.yna.co.kr/Engnews/20061004/430100000020061004140656E7.html
2006/10/04 14:06 KST
N. Korea says withdrawal of U.S. forces in S. Korea its main goal
SEOUL, Oct. 4 (Yonhap) -- North Korea on Wednesday said the withdrawal of U.S. forces stationed in South Korea is its main goal, one day after it claimed it was compelled to conduct a nuclear test by what it claimed to be threats of U.S. aggression.
"The forced occupation of the South by U.S. invasion forces is a basic obstacle to the reunification of the nation," Rodong Sinmun, an organ of the North's communist Workers' Party, said in a commentary carried by the country's Korean Central News Agency.
http://www.thestate.com/mld/thestate/news/15672722.htm?source=rss&channel=thestate_news
Posted on Wed, Oct. 04, 2006
A nuclear test by North Korea carries radiation risk
By GEORGE JAHN
The Associated Press
Any miscalculation by North Korea in the design of its nuclear test could release radiation into the atmosphere that could travel far beyond North Korea’s borders, experts say.
With Pyongyang’s nuclear activities off limits to the outside world for the past 13 years, much of the secretive country’s expertise and nuclear sophistication is a matter of guesswork. And if the North is not as advanced as it thinks it is, the possibility of mistakes cannot be discounted.
The suspected underground test site, near the town of Chiktong, is dug into the side of a mountain and likely zigzags down at an angle with a series of sharp turns and blast doors meant to contain the force of the explosion. The point of entry would be sealed before any explosion is set off.
But former U.N. nuclear inspector David Albright, president of the Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security, said Tuesday any flaws in the site’s design could “blow everything out of the entrance,” including substantial amounts of radioactivity.
Another potential error that could send clouds of radioactivity into the air — and ultimately far beyond North Korea’s borders — could be a miscalculation in the yield of the explosion.
The limited nuclear sophistication of the North Koreans means they would aim to make a test bomb no larger than five kilotons, he said. That would produce an explosion three to four times weaker than the bombs that destroyed the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki during World War II.
“But if they (inadvertently) over-designed the thing that could be a worry,” Albright said. “If it’s 30 kilotons, it could blow a hole in the mountain, and if there is a fissure, radiation will escape.”
Albright said the chances of miscalculation either in bomb or tunnel design that is major enough to set free large amounts of radioactivity were small, but could not be ruled out.
Satellite imagery of the potential test site near Chiktong taken May 1 shows what appears to be a tunnel entrance to the northwest of a ridge and an equipment storage site on the ridge’s southeastern flank. Another photo identifies “suspected V.I.P housing” and a “suspected helipad” near the site.
Albright said that what appears to be rolls of cable near the site could mean the North is preparing a test, with the wiring possibly connecting a nuclear device inside the tunnel to a monitoring site.
The bomb would be set of electronically. If that happens, “the mountain will shake, and they’ll be sending (seismic signals) that will be detected in China, maybe Japan, certainly in South Korea,” said Albright. The residents of Chiktong, about 10 miles away, “would feel a shaking,” he added.
Albright’s comments reflected the guesswork connected to what North Korea can and cannot do since it unilaterally withdrew in 2003 from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and expelled inspectors of the International Atomic Energy Agency.
Pyongyang last year announced it had nuclear arms — a claim that, like most others connected to its atomic activities — cannot be verified. Still, the North is believed to have enough fissile material to arm at least half a dozen warheads.
Thanks CallMeJoe for the ping.
Surely.
http://www.upi.com/NewsTrack/view.php?StoryID=20060709-103541-9228r
Consider preemptive strike, official says
TOKYO, July 9 (UPI) -- Japan must debate if it has the right to attack North Korea to protect itself from a nuclear missile launch, a senior Japanese defense official said Sunday.
Defense Agency Director General Fukushiro Nukaga said it was "natural" for a sovereign nation to protect its citizens when an enemy "puts a finger on the trigger of a gun," the Kyodo News Agency reported.
In the wake of North Korea's test firing of a long-range missile Wednesday, Nukaga said Japan must come to terms with its legal responsibilities, within the scope of its war-renouncing constitution, to launch a preemptive attack. Japan adopted a pacifist constitution in 1947.
His comments come as Japan's foreign minister, Taro Aso, said Japan would have the right to attack North Korea if North Korea made a direct nuclear threat against Japan.
"It is impossible for us to do nothing until we are attacked," Asp told Japan's NHK television.
Aso said the right to attack before being attacked was within the scope of the constitution, "at least under the current situation, to guarantee Japanese citizens' security."
OPINION: I believe that Japan has considered, and still is considering all of its options.
True. But few understand how it could escalate.
http://www.cnn.com/2003/WORLD/asiapcf/east/01/21/nkorea.war/
North Korea: The cost of conflict
By Andrew Demaria CNN (snipped)
Casualties
When the U.S. drew up plans for a possible military action against North Korea in 1993 -- again over its suspected nuclear weapons program -- a Pentagon estimate suggested four months of high-intensity combat would be required, using more than 600,000 South Korean troops and half a million U.S. reinforcements to the personnel already stationed in South Korea. In 1994, advisers to then President Bill Clinton predicted 52,000 U.S. casualties in the first 90 days of combat alone, Don Oberdorfer, a former Washington Post reporter, wrote in his book The Two Koreas. To put that figure in perspective, 55,000 U.S. military personnel were killed in the 1950-53 Korean War, and about 58,000 in the 1957-75 Vietnam War. Some estimates went as far as forecasting a million casualties, not to mention economic damages and war-related costs that ran into trillions of dollars. Now, the casualty estimates are higher, with North Korea's massive firepower moving closer to U.S. and South Korean forces stationed on the border.
To wage a campaign against North Korea would require hundreds of thousands of extra U.S. troops. That's a tough demand -- despite Washington's claims to be able to fight two separate conflicts simultaneously -- given the military build up in the Persian Gulf and ongoing operations in Afghanistan. . .
http://rds.yahoo.com/S=53720272/K=korea/v=2/SID=w/l=NSR/R=45/SIG=1260uuio3/*-http%3A//straitstimes.asia1.com.sg/asia/story/0,4386,276340,00.html
OCT 6, 2004
China could get drawn into war on Korean peninsula (snip)
SEOUL - South Korea's military authorities said yesterday they expected that China would be drawn inevitably into any war on the Korean peninsula because of a mutual assistance treaty with North Korea. 'China is expected to provide limited military support to North Korea, according to a provision of the mutual assistance treaty stipulating automatic engagement,' Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) Chairman Kim Jong Hwan told a parliamentary hearing.
China would deploy some 400,000 troops in support of North Korea in case of war with South Korea, which would be backed by its ally the United States, according to JCS data provided to the hearing. China's support would include 800 planes and 150 navy vessels, the JCS data said. The South Korea-US combined troops would number 720,000, while North Korea's regular 1.17-million-men military would be reinforced with 6.34 million reserve forces, according to the data.
http://www.boston.com/news/world/asia/articles/2005/04/29/n_koreas_nuclear_capability_said_higher/
N. Korea's nuclear capability said higher
US official cites ability to arm ballistic missile
By Bradley Graham and Glenn Kessler, Washington Post | April 29, 2005 (snip)
WASHINGTON -- The Pentagon's top military intelligence officer said yesterday that North Korea has the ability to arm a missile with a nuclear device, stunning senators he was addressing and prompting attempts by other defense and intelligence officials later to play down the impact. The statement by Vice Admiral Lowell E. Jacoby before the Senate Armed Services Committee marked the first time that a US official had publicly attributed such a capability to North Korea. Although US intelligence authorities have said for years that North Korea possesses nuclear weapons and could probably reach the United States with its long-range rockets, they had stopped short of asserting that North Korea had mastered the difficult task of miniaturizing a nuclear device to fit atop a ballistic missile.
Later in the day, the Defense Intelligence Agency, which Jacoby heads, issued a statement seeking to portray the admiral's assessment as nothing new and still largely theoretical. It cited his testimony last month before the same committee, where he said North Korea is developing a missile that could deliver a nuclear warhead to parts of the United States.
But those comments dealt with the ability of the North Korean missile, known as the Taepo Dong 2, to go the distance with a nuclear warhead -- not whether North Korea could mount such warheads on its missiles. . .
"True. But few understand how it could escalate."
OPINION: Generally speaking, I do understand threats and how they expand and their consequences.
I do appreciate your links and snippets.
They are thought provoking.
I wasn't referring to you. But anytime a North Korean thread starts elsewhere it is clear that almost no one (at least those who post to those threads) seems to appreciate the gravity of what they are discussing. I apologize if my frustration seemed directed at you, it wasn't.
Many if not most posts on North Korea FR threads are jokes.
(eg. "Team America", bathroom humor, and Asian accents)
And the non-joking posts are not serious.
It just is not worth the trouble.
Have a good one.
THANKS CallMeJoe.
It's always worth the trouble if someone learns something.
For example, TigerLikesRooster posts some interesting translations.
http://go.reuters.co.uk/newsArticle.jhtml?type=worldNews&storyID=1483709§ion=news&src=rss/uk/worldNews
U.S. gives N Korea stark warning
Thu Oct 5, 2006 12:18 AM ET
By Carol Giacomo and Paul Eckert (snip)
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The United States in its starkest warning so far said on Wednesday it would not live with a nuclear-armed North Korea, while Japan and other neighbors hardened their responses after the reclusive state announced it planned a nuclear test.
"We are not going to live with a nuclear North Korea, we are not going to accept it," U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Chris Hill said. He warned Pyongyang that "it can have a future or it can have these weapons. It cannot have both." . . .
http://www.nasdaq.com/aspxcontent/NewsStory.aspx?cpath=20061005%5cACQDJON200610050804DOWJONESDJONLINE000614.htm&
White House Held Emergency Meetings On N Korea - NYT
NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- The White House held an emergency meeting Tuesday to discuss responses to North Korea's claim that it would conduct a nuclear test, but no conclusion was reached, The New York Times reported Thursday.
The newspaper said senior Bush administration aides discussed responses ranging from embargoes on North Korean goods to trying new ways to engage the country in talks. With no conclusion reached, the administration's long-running debate about how to deal with the North continued Wednesday, The Times said.
In addition, The Times said, U.S. officials were pressing China to intervene, though it is unclear how much influence the Chinese have; Beijing asked the North not to conduct a missile test in July, but it did so anyway.
On Tuesday, North Korea triggered global alarm by announcing that it would undertake an unprecedented nuclear test in a step toward building the atomic arsenal it views as a deterrent against any U.S. attack.
http://asia.news.yahoo.com/061005/kyodo/d8kifbto0.html
Thursday October 5, 8:09 PM
U.S. military plane takes off from Okinawa, believed to monitor N. Korea
(Kyodo) _ A U.S. military aircraft capable of collecting and analyzing radioactive substances in the air took off Thursday morning from the Kadena base in Okinawa, informed sources said.
The plane is believed to be intended to monitor North Korea, which has announced a plan to conduct a nuclear test.
>>>A nuclear test by North Korea carries radiation risk
Boy is that an understatement.
The whole DPRK situation is quickly ratcheting up.
We're living in very dangerous times.
From the blog (Arkin is a smart cookie - - wrong at times because he is still very much a liberal - - but he has good contacts):
"It seems like we are entering the most dangerous period with North Korea, not because of its nuclear weapons or missiles, but because this normally deliberate and careful country could perceive that it must take radical action to just survive into the future."
And that is why their conventional weakness is *not* a good thing (in this particular respect). They will be more prone to employ unconventional weapons because of their conventional weakness. And they not only have nuclear weapons, but what ranks as one of the, if not the largest chemical and biological arsenals in the world.
If war breaks out (intentionally or by miscalculation), things could escalate much faster with such degradation of their conventional arsenal because, in effect, all the bottom rungs of the escalatory ladder are missing. So it goes nuclear very fast. Their "trump card" is just about the only card they can effectively play out with any hope of long-term success. So it becomes an immediate, rather than last resort.
And it is also worth remembering that many of our rocket tests in the early 60s were disasters. The reason we were so hard line on missile tests after 1998 is that it only takes a few to get the information you need to make your "course corrections". I am afraid that some people may take false comfort in the supposed test failures in July.
There has never been a nation in history both this unstable, and this inclined, to use nuclear weapons.
http://www.nasdaq.com/aspxcontent/NewsStory.aspx?cpath=20061005%5cACQDJON200610051212DOWJONESDJONLINE000900.htm&
Analysts Ponder Timing Of Possible N Korea Test - Reports
NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- U.S. analysts say that if North Korea goes ahead with a threat to test a nuclear device, such a test could take place fairly soon, according to various news reports Thursday.
Japan and South Korea have said there is no sign of an imminent test, but a U.S. intelligence official said the U.S. is now seeing the movement of people and materials at a possible test site, the Associated Press reported.
However, similar activity was seen a couple of months ago, when no test occurred. The official also said observers do not have a baseline for comparison, because North Korea has never performed a nuclear test.
The Financial Times reported that Daniel Pinkston of the Center for Nonproliferation Studies in Monterey, California, said that, if a test were to take place this year, it would almost certainly have to take place before mid- November to avoid heavy snow falls.
The Washington Post reported that several government analysts suggested that a test could come as early as Sunday, the anniversary of the appointment of North Korea leader, Kim Jong Il, as head of the Korean Workers' Party, in 1997.
The analysts said it may also be timed to coincide with election Monday of the general secretary of the United Nations, the Post reported. Ban Ki Moon, the foreign minister of rival South Korea, is widely expected to win.
North Korea often times actions with special dates to maximize propaganda impact, as it did by launching a series of missile tests, including long-range model believed capable of striking the U.S., on July 4 - the U.S. Independence Day. Another possible indication that a test could be soon is that Kim has not appeared in public for about 20 days. The leader often drops out of sight when tensions heat up only to resurface when things calm down, The Associated Press reported.
On Tuesday, North Korea announced it would conduct an unprecedented nuclear test in a step toward building the atomic arsenal it views as a necessary deterrent against any U.S. attack.
http://today.reuters.com/news/articlenews.aspx?type=topNews&storyid=2006-10-05T180507Z_01_N05234028_RTRUKOC_0_US-KOREA-NORTH-BUSH.xml
W. House: U.S. not making lethal threat to N.Korea
Thu Oct 5, 2006 2:05 PM ET
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The United States was not making "a lethal threat" when an envoy warned North Korea that it could not have both a future and a nuclear weapon, the White House said on Thursday.
In the starkest warning so far, coming after Pyongyang announced it planned a nuclear test, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Chris Hill on Wednesday said North Korea: "can have a future or it can have these weapons. It cannot have both."
The United States has been pursuing diplomatic means to prevent North Korea from pursuing its nuclear program, White House spokesman Tony Snow said.
"It's a statement," he said. "No, it's not a lethal threat," Snow told reporters.
"It's a statement of our policy, which is, we don't think they should have nuclear weapons," Snow said.
To what end, Joe?
That's what I don't understand.
DPRK knows that if they go nuclear, we'd respond.
In the end, hundreds of thousands would be dead.
To what end? What would that accomplish for DPRK?
They believe they can only survive by coerced reunification with the South.
To that end, remaining U.S. forces must be ejected to "liberate" South Korea from "occupation".
They have been preparing for nuclear war since 1953 when Eisenhower quietly threatened to escalate to nukes if they didn't agree to the truce.
They literally have nothing to lose. Their nation looks like a moonscape. South Korea is one of the largest economies on the planet, Seoul is the size of NYC and 20-30 miles from the border, and Tokyo, capital of the second largest economy on the planet, is in range of their extended SCUDs. They can blackmail South Korea, Japan, the global economy at large (not to mention the 70-80,000 US military in South Korea and Japan along with 100-150,000 civilians) by threatening to rain down sarin, VX, tabun, anthrax, plague, smallpox, and perhaps weaponized avian flu, not to mention nuclear warheads, on all of the above.
If war starts, they will hope to drag China into the war on their side by forcing Japan to retaliate and attack North Korea. China is obligated by their mutual defense treaty to come to North Korea's aid if attacked. Many believe China will not intervene directly, but as many of the missile bases are positioned up near the Chinese border along the Yalu, American and Japanese forces will be forced to approach the Chinese border to neutralize the missile threat (which will be difficult from the air).
Thus, MacArthur's error would then be repeated by triggering a Chinese intervention. But China in 2006 is not China in 1950. Top Chinese generals have already stated they are ready to wage nuclear war over Taiwan. If China come into direct military confrontation with America on the Korean Peninsula, they will not be restrained from seeking to coercively reunify Taiwan with the mainland just as North Korea will try with the South.
North Korea, with Chinese assistance, may then threaten a launch on the U.S. if we do not sit down and negotiate a peace settlement that brings Taiwan into the Chinese orbit and South Korea into North Korea's. Our missile defense may (or may not) work against a limited North Korean attack. But far less likely against a full-on Chinese attack.
North Korea cannot win conventionally, but hopes to use nuclear weapons (or threat of their use) to coerce a settlement, and if that fails, to widen the war to bring Japan into conflict with China (who hates Japan) and forcing a situation where US/Japan fight China/North Korea.
Oh please. That was back in April. What do you think was signalled?!
http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/asiapcf/10/05/nkorea.nuclear.bullets.ap/index.html?section=cnn_latest
Kim rallies troops in rare address
SEOUL, South Korea (AP) -- To cheers of "Human bullets and bombs!" North Korean leader Kim Jong Il reportedly rallied with top military commanders in a rare public appearance amid growing concern the communist regime will soon test a nuclear bomb.
The meeting was the reclusive leader's first reported public sighting in three weeks and first since Tuesday when his government shocked the world and alarmed its jittery neighbors by announcing plans to detonate an atomic weapon.
Kim congratulated the battalion commanders and political instructors for "bolstering the Korean People's Army as invincible revolutionary armed forces," the country's official Korean Central News Agency, or KCNA, reported late Thursday.
Kim also urged them to "further strengthen the battalions," KCNA said.
Attendees responded with "stormy cheers of 'hurrah"' and chanted slogans such as "Let's fight at the cost of our lives for the respected Supreme Commander comrade Kim Jong Il," "Human bullets and bombs," and "Devoted defense," KCNA said.
It was unclear when the rally took place, but it could show that Kim is trying to polish his credentials with the military at a sensitive time when the international community is stepping up pressure on Pyongyang to scrap any plans for a test.
Kim's last reported public activity was last month when KCNA reported on Sept. 15 that he visited the scenic Diamond Mountain near the border with South Korea.
The North claims to have nuclear weapons, but hasn't performed any known test to prove that.
Six-nation talks aimed at persuading North Korea to abandon its nuclear ambitions have been stalled for almost a year, and North Korea says it needs an atomic arsenal to deter a possible attack from the United States.
Washington has repeatedly said it has no intention of invading North Korea.
Little Kim -- someone to watch.
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