From the blog (Arkin is a smart cookie - - wrong at times because he is still very much a liberal - - but he has good contacts):
"It seems like we are entering the most dangerous period with North Korea, not because of its nuclear weapons or missiles, but because this normally deliberate and careful country could perceive that it must take radical action to just survive into the future."
And that is why their conventional weakness is *not* a good thing (in this particular respect). They will be more prone to employ unconventional weapons because of their conventional weakness. And they not only have nuclear weapons, but what ranks as one of the, if not the largest chemical and biological arsenals in the world.
If war breaks out (intentionally or by miscalculation), things could escalate much faster with such degradation of their conventional arsenal because, in effect, all the bottom rungs of the escalatory ladder are missing. So it goes nuclear very fast. Their "trump card" is just about the only card they can effectively play out with any hope of long-term success. So it becomes an immediate, rather than last resort.
And it is also worth remembering that many of our rocket tests in the early 60s were disasters. The reason we were so hard line on missile tests after 1998 is that it only takes a few to get the information you need to make your "course corrections". I am afraid that some people may take false comfort in the supposed test failures in July.
There has never been a nation in history both this unstable, and this inclined, to use nuclear weapons.
http://www.nasdaq.com/aspxcontent/NewsStory.aspx?cpath=20061005%5cACQDJON200610051212DOWJONESDJONLINE000900.htm&
Analysts Ponder Timing Of Possible N Korea Test - Reports
NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- U.S. analysts say that if North Korea goes ahead with a threat to test a nuclear device, such a test could take place fairly soon, according to various news reports Thursday.
Japan and South Korea have said there is no sign of an imminent test, but a U.S. intelligence official said the U.S. is now seeing the movement of people and materials at a possible test site, the Associated Press reported.
However, similar activity was seen a couple of months ago, when no test occurred. The official also said observers do not have a baseline for comparison, because North Korea has never performed a nuclear test.
The Financial Times reported that Daniel Pinkston of the Center for Nonproliferation Studies in Monterey, California, said that, if a test were to take place this year, it would almost certainly have to take place before mid- November to avoid heavy snow falls.
The Washington Post reported that several government analysts suggested that a test could come as early as Sunday, the anniversary of the appointment of North Korea leader, Kim Jong Il, as head of the Korean Workers' Party, in 1997.
The analysts said it may also be timed to coincide with election Monday of the general secretary of the United Nations, the Post reported. Ban Ki Moon, the foreign minister of rival South Korea, is widely expected to win.
North Korea often times actions with special dates to maximize propaganda impact, as it did by launching a series of missile tests, including long-range model believed capable of striking the U.S., on July 4 - the U.S. Independence Day. Another possible indication that a test could be soon is that Kim has not appeared in public for about 20 days. The leader often drops out of sight when tensions heat up only to resurface when things calm down, The Associated Press reported.
On Tuesday, North Korea announced it would conduct an unprecedented nuclear test in a step toward building the atomic arsenal it views as a necessary deterrent against any U.S. attack.