They believe they can only survive by coerced reunification with the South.
To that end, remaining U.S. forces must be ejected to "liberate" South Korea from "occupation".
They have been preparing for nuclear war since 1953 when Eisenhower quietly threatened to escalate to nukes if they didn't agree to the truce.
They literally have nothing to lose. Their nation looks like a moonscape. South Korea is one of the largest economies on the planet, Seoul is the size of NYC and 20-30 miles from the border, and Tokyo, capital of the second largest economy on the planet, is in range of their extended SCUDs. They can blackmail South Korea, Japan, the global economy at large (not to mention the 70-80,000 US military in South Korea and Japan along with 100-150,000 civilians) by threatening to rain down sarin, VX, tabun, anthrax, plague, smallpox, and perhaps weaponized avian flu, not to mention nuclear warheads, on all of the above.
If war starts, they will hope to drag China into the war on their side by forcing Japan to retaliate and attack North Korea. China is obligated by their mutual defense treaty to come to North Korea's aid if attacked. Many believe China will not intervene directly, but as many of the missile bases are positioned up near the Chinese border along the Yalu, American and Japanese forces will be forced to approach the Chinese border to neutralize the missile threat (which will be difficult from the air).
Thus, MacArthur's error would then be repeated by triggering a Chinese intervention. But China in 2006 is not China in 1950. Top Chinese generals have already stated they are ready to wage nuclear war over Taiwan. If China come into direct military confrontation with America on the Korean Peninsula, they will not be restrained from seeking to coercively reunify Taiwan with the mainland just as North Korea will try with the South.
North Korea, with Chinese assistance, may then threaten a launch on the U.S. if we do not sit down and negotiate a peace settlement that brings Taiwan into the Chinese orbit and South Korea into North Korea's. Our missile defense may (or may not) work against a limited North Korean attack. But far less likely against a full-on Chinese attack.
North Korea cannot win conventionally, but hopes to use nuclear weapons (or threat of their use) to coerce a settlement, and if that fails, to widen the war to bring Japan into conflict with China (who hates Japan) and forcing a situation where US/Japan fight China/North Korea.
http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/asiapcf/10/05/nkorea.nuclear.bullets.ap/index.html?section=cnn_latest
Kim rallies troops in rare address
SEOUL, South Korea (AP) -- To cheers of "Human bullets and bombs!" North Korean leader Kim Jong Il reportedly rallied with top military commanders in a rare public appearance amid growing concern the communist regime will soon test a nuclear bomb.
The meeting was the reclusive leader's first reported public sighting in three weeks and first since Tuesday when his government shocked the world and alarmed its jittery neighbors by announcing plans to detonate an atomic weapon.
Kim congratulated the battalion commanders and political instructors for "bolstering the Korean People's Army as invincible revolutionary armed forces," the country's official Korean Central News Agency, or KCNA, reported late Thursday.
Kim also urged them to "further strengthen the battalions," KCNA said.
Attendees responded with "stormy cheers of 'hurrah"' and chanted slogans such as "Let's fight at the cost of our lives for the respected Supreme Commander comrade Kim Jong Il," "Human bullets and bombs," and "Devoted defense," KCNA said.
It was unclear when the rally took place, but it could show that Kim is trying to polish his credentials with the military at a sensitive time when the international community is stepping up pressure on Pyongyang to scrap any plans for a test.
Kim's last reported public activity was last month when KCNA reported on Sept. 15 that he visited the scenic Diamond Mountain near the border with South Korea.
The North claims to have nuclear weapons, but hasn't performed any known test to prove that.
Six-nation talks aimed at persuading North Korea to abandon its nuclear ambitions have been stalled for almost a year, and North Korea says it needs an atomic arsenal to deter a possible attack from the United States.
Washington has repeatedly said it has no intention of invading North Korea.
Thank you for the history lesson! :-)
I imagine too that Kim Jung Il is concerned that his own fate may soon parallel Saddam's.
We live in interesting times. Not at all what I had hoped for for my children.