Posted on 02/06/2006 12:36:41 PM PST by SierraWasp
Dan Walters: Voter data suggest California may be more purple than blue
By Dan Walters -- Bee Columnist Published 2:15 am PST Monday, February 6, 2006
The conventional wisdom these days is that California is a solidly blue state - based on Democrats' near-sweep of major political contests over the last decade and especially George W. Bush's two million-plus-vote losses in the state. More accurately, however, California is a purple state, as new voter registration data indicate.
California's 15.8 million registered voters now divide themselves into 6.7 million Democrats (42.68 percent), 5.9 million Republicans (34.68 percent), 2.9 million independents (18.8 percent) and a smattering of minor party adherents.
Three decades ago, it was an entirely different story. The Democratic Party, buoyed by fallout from the Vietnam War and the Watergate scandal, hit a modern high point with 57.4 percent of nearly 10 million registered voters in 1976 while Republicans were, interestingly, almost exactly where they are now at 34.8 percent. Democrats, moreover, had pluralities or majorities in 57 of 58 counties, lacking only Orange County.
(snip)
Since then, there has been a steady erosion of Democratic voter strength in California while Republicans have maintained a consistent share in the mid-30 percent range. Clearly, Democrats' registration losses have not translated into Republican gains, but into a fast-growing independent sector. Indeed, the margin between the two major parties - eight percentage points - is about as small as it's been since the Great Depression.
There's also been a massive redistribution of voter strength. The coastal urban areas have become more Democratic while the faster-growing inland counties - dubbed "Edge Cities" by some - and rural areas have become more Republican. Republicans, in fact, now claim 37 counties, a huge increase from just one in 1976.
(Excerpt) Read more at sacbee.com ...
You apparently have about as much insight on California and Californians as I do on New York and New Yorkers, which is none at all. Besides, with all his flaws, I'd take Arnold any day over your duly elected Hillary Clinton. Harrrrumph!!
The "independents" are mostly Rats, or fooled by the Rats.
Many of the Democrats of the 60s and 70s were Okies who were mainly Democrats by heritage but were really natural Reaganites in many ways, so the registration numbers from that era don't mean much. Yes, some Rats have moved to the Northwest and elsewhere, but I'm sure that is outnumbered by Republicans who have quit the state in disgust.
The hope for the California GOP is simply this: How many semi-conservative independents who are being fooled by the Rats can we get through to? It takes loads of money, and where will the loads of money come from? There isn't much conservative money, or available conservative money, in CA anymore, now that the Reagan generation of principled businessmen (Henry Salvatori, et al) is gone.
In addition, there is the problem with Hispanic growth. The state GOP leadership likes to tell itself, and us, that Hispanics are "natural Republicans." That is simply nonsense. If we cannot control immigration, there is little likelihood of a conservative future in California.
The majority of the CA electorate isn't truly liberal, even now. However, they do vote for liberals, thinking they're mainstream. In addition, the electorate is more conservative than the population, and sooner or later will look more like the population, to our detriment.
If present trends (immigration, plus conservatives leaving the state in disgust) continue, however, there will be an ideologically liberal majority who consciously vote liberal almost every time.
General Date Democratic Republican Other Total Nov. 7, 1922 20.8% 63.2% 16.0% 100.0% Nov. 4, 1924 P 21.8% 65.0% 13.2% 100.0% Nov. 2, 1926 21.4% 67.9% 10.7% 100.0% Nov. 6, 1928 P 25.6% 66.4% 8.0% 100.0% Nov. 4, 1930 20.3% 73.0% 6.7% 100.0% Nov. 8, 1932 P 40.2% 54.2% 5.6% 100.0% Nov. 6, 1934 49.5% 45.5% 4.9% 100.0% Nov. 3, 1936 P 57.8% 38.2% 3.9% 100.0% Nov. 8, 1938 59.4% 35.8% 4.8% 100.0% Nov. 5, 1940 P 59.7% 36.0% 4.3% 100.0% Nov. 3, 1942 60.2% 35.9% 3.9% 100.0% Nov. 7, 1944 P 58.4% 37.4% 4.2% 100.0% Nov. 5, 1946 58.0% 37.3% 4.7% 100.0% Nov. 2, 1948 P 57.1% 37.7% 5.2% 100.0% Nov. 7, 1950 58.4% 37.1% 4.5% 100.0% Nov. 4, 1952 P 55.2% 40.9% 3.8% 100.0% Nov. 2, 1954 55.5% 41.0% 3.5% 100.0% Nov. 6, 1956 P 55.8% 41.3% 2.9% 100.0% Nov. 4, 1958 57.4% 39.6% 3.0% 100.0% Nov. 8, 1960 P 57.5% 39.2% 3.3% 100.0% Nov. 6, 1962 57.0% 39.9% 3.2% 100.0% Nov. 3, 1964 P 57.9% 38.9% 3.2% 100.0% Nov. 8, 1966 56.6% 40.2% 3.2% 100.0% Nov. 5, 1968 P 54.5% 40.3% 5.2% 100.0% Nov. 3, 1970 54.9% 39.8% 5.2% 100.0% Nov. 7, 1972 P 56.0% 36.7% 7.3% 100.0% Nov. 5, 1974 56.6% 36.0% 7.4% 100.0% Nov. 2, 1976 P 57.4% 34.8% 7.9% 100.0% Nov. 7, 1978 56.6% 34.2% 9.2% 100.0% Nov. 4, 1980 P 53.2% 34.7% 12.1% 100.0% Nov. 2, 1982 53.2% 34.9% 11.9% 100.0% Nov. 6, 1984 P 52.0% 36.5% 11.5% 100.0% Nov. 4, 1986 50.8% 38.3% 10.9% 100.0% Nov. 8, 1988 P 50.4% 38.6% 11.0% 100.0% Nov. 6, 1990 49.5% 39.3% 11.2% 100.0% Nov. 3, 1992 P 49.1% 37.0% 13.9% 100.0% Nov. 8, 1994 49.0% 37.2% 13.8% 100.0% Nov. 5, 1996 P 47.2% 36.4% 16.4% 100.0% Nov. 3, 1998 46.7% 35.5% 17.8% 100.0% Nov. 7, 2000P 45.4% 34.9% 19.7% 100.0% Nov. 5, 2002 44.6% 35.2% 20.2% 100.0% Nov. 2, 2004P 43.0% 34.7% 22.3% 100.0% Note: ‘P’ indicates a presidential election
There goes the neighborhood, LOL.
"The California GOP's problem is that the primary system elects the most right-wing politico out there. . . .
Case in point: Rosario Marin would have beat the socks off Barbar Boxer."
I can't think of another Republican candidate more dismal than Marin. She sounded like a complete airhead when I heard her on radio and she has catered to the illegal immigrant folks for decades. Boxer would have eaten her alive.
Fong was winning until two weeks before the election when the Boxer camp found out that he once donated to an anti-gay group. After that news got out, she beat him by 10 points.
-PJ
Not much can be done about that for Presidential elections, short of states amending their laws to imitate Maine, or otherwise apportion electors by a system other than winner-take all.
At the level of state government and congressional delegations, though, it is one result of the first, and least remembered, corrupt, liberal activist court decision, the 'one-man-one-vote' decision which invalidated all state constitutions that followed the same wisdom the Founders incorporated into the Federal Constitution by having an upper legislative house on the basis of population: the party dominant in the cities gets to Gerrymander the state.
You can argue that his subsequent flip-flop cost him votes among conservative Republicans and Roman Catholics, but the fact remains that he got trounced by one of the stupidest, most shrill, most incompetent, most abominable incumbents in the U.S. Senate, and the single most embarrassing woman to serve in that chamber.
If conservatives had any hope in California then that contest should not have been close, notwithstanding the bland personality and sub-par political skills of her Republican opponent.
If you cut out LA County, The Bay Area and Metro Sacramento, every election would go our way.
..this place is sick...
I'm just happy to have moved out of a blue county-Contra Costa, to a red county-Tuolumne !!
-PJ
Imagine if Pete Wilson had appointed him on an interim basis instead of that other stiff.
That was one of his only major political blunders, IMO.
"Case in point: Rosario Marin would have beat the socks off Barbara Boxer."
"Any comments, DJ? : )"
The most-right wing politicos get nominated in the GOP primary in California ? That's so laughable, it's not even worth the time to respond to for its ignorance. As for Rosario Marin beating Babs Boxer, perhaps Dude hasn't heard of a fella called Matt Fong. You can't beat an evil sociopathic demogogue with a "moderate" milquetoast. Our sheer failure in CA to present candidates taking unapologetic Conservative stands on the issues and running pantywaists who leave a yellow puddle on the floor as soon as their liberal Democrat opponent opens their ignorant mouths to spew their pablum and lies is the reason why these cretinous leftist 'Rats clean up on election day.
I remember, during his debate with Kathleen Connell, Pete Wilson promised to serve a full term if elected. One month after he won, he declared his candidacy for President. And, he did it in Manhattan with the Statue of Liberty as his background, not in California.
I didn't care for that.
-PJ
Pert near!
But he IS a Democrat. For all of his reelection "victory" he didn't carry a single solitary additional Republican onto the City Council. He's worse than useless.
"The only reason Arnold is the "GOP" governor today is because he did not go through a Republican primary. There is no way he would have been nominated."
With the establishment falling all over itself to coronate this liberal, he may very well have obtained the nomination over the only legitimately qualified Conservative, Tom McClintock.
The motor voter law has had a major effect on elecions here in CA. I'll bet at least 10% of the Democrats "registered" to vote are illegal since all someone has to do is check the CITIZEN box on the DMV voter form. Just show your fake birth certificate and S.S. card and no ones the wiser. We are doomed in California...
Thanks Bill Clinton!!!!!!
Hillary Clinton is a Senator and a Democrat. She is analagous to Barbara Boxer. We do, however, have our very own pro-abortion, pro gay marriage Libertarian Governor masquerading as a Republican. His name is George Pataki, but he will son be leaving us for an honest-to-goodness Democrat. The NY Republican party is so dead that our front-runner is an alcoholic former Massachussetts governor.
It's a shame, because I think that the Republican Party would be a lot more successful-and appeal to a much broader segment of the population-if they adopted some of Pete Wilson's positions on pivotal cultural issues.
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