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Voter data suggest California may be more purple than blue
Sacramento BEE ^ | 2/6/06 | Dan Walters

Posted on 02/06/2006 12:36:41 PM PST by SierraWasp

Dan Walters: Voter data suggest California may be more purple than blue

By Dan Walters -- Bee Columnist Published 2:15 am PST Monday, February 6, 2006

The conventional wisdom these days is that California is a solidly blue state - based on Democrats' near-sweep of major political contests over the last decade and especially George W. Bush's two million-plus-vote losses in the state. More accurately, however, California is a purple state, as new voter registration data indicate.

California's 15.8 million registered voters now divide themselves into 6.7 million Democrats (42.68 percent), 5.9 million Republicans (34.68 percent), 2.9 million independents (18.8 percent) and a smattering of minor party adherents.

Three decades ago, it was an entirely different story. The Democratic Party, buoyed by fallout from the Vietnam War and the Watergate scandal, hit a modern high point with 57.4 percent of nearly 10 million registered voters in 1976 while Republicans were, interestingly, almost exactly where they are now at 34.8 percent. Democrats, moreover, had pluralities or majorities in 57 of 58 counties, lacking only Orange County.

(snip)

Since then, there has been a steady erosion of Democratic voter strength in California while Republicans have maintained a consistent share in the mid-30 percent range. Clearly, Democrats' registration losses have not translated into Republican gains, but into a fast-growing independent sector. Indeed, the margin between the two major parties - eight percentage points - is about as small as it's been since the Great Depression.

There's also been a massive redistribution of voter strength. The coastal urban areas have become more Democratic while the faster-growing inland counties - dubbed "Edge Cities" by some - and rural areas have become more Republican. Republicans, in fact, now claim 37 counties, a huge increase from just one in 1976.

(Excerpt) Read more at sacbee.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Editorial; Government; Politics/Elections; US: California
KEYWORDS: bluestates; california; purplestates; redstates
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To: The Dude Abides
If Hillary is the Dem. candidate in 2008, California go GOP.

Maybe. Under the current winner-take-all electoral system, Los Angeles and San Francisco might be able to garner up enough vote fraud to give her the state.

21 posted on 02/06/2006 1:10:25 PM PST by Terabitten (The only time you can have too much ammunition is when you're swimming.)
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To: presidio9

I agree with you. But I would rather have Mike Bloomberg than some Dem-wit.

The only reason Arnold is the "GOP" governor today is because he did not go through a Republican primary. There is no way he would have been nominated.


22 posted on 02/06/2006 1:12:11 PM PST by The Dude Abides (Who wants some?)
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To: The Dude Abides

In NY, I think a real screw-up Democrat like David Dinkins might be just what we need to give people another ugly taste of reality. Giuliani is a Libertarian on a lot of national social issues, but on local government issues, with the exception of gun control, he is a Conservative. He made a lot of NYers soft.


23 posted on 02/06/2006 1:15:16 PM PST by presidio9 ("Bird Flu" is the new Y2K virus -only without the handy deadline.)
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To: SierraWasp

Lukily, I live in a red county: Ventura.

This would not be a bad state if L.A. and San Fagcisco counties could be cut loose...........


24 posted on 02/06/2006 1:15:58 PM PST by doorgunner69
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To: SierraWasp
This is a good analysis.

I used to think all California was a lost cause, the people shallow and self-centered, and that conservatives ought to look elsewhere.

Spending two months in the Central Valley - Fresno, Modesto, with frequent trips to Stockton - changed that for me. Those people are honest, hard-working, the salt of the earth. They are the kinds who will let you go first at a tie at a four-way stop. Just my opinion.

25 posted on 02/06/2006 1:22:03 PM PST by Lexinom
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To: RockinRight

You mean PINK......O


26 posted on 02/06/2006 1:24:26 PM PST by wolfcreek
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To: SierraWasp
My own personal independent study indicates that 42% of californians are just plain loony
27 posted on 02/06/2006 1:28:35 PM PST by paul51 (11 September 2001 - Never forget)
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To: SierraWasp

I'd imagine a libertarian minded republican wouldn't do too bad there, of course, that is sort of what (R)nold is, except he's more a 'libertarian' extra light.


28 posted on 02/06/2006 1:34:36 PM PST by traviskicks (http://www.neoperspectives.com/israel_palestine_conflict.htm)
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To: The Dude Abides; goldstategop
Matt Fong should have beaten the socks off of Barbara Boxer.

From what I recall, he was about as "right wing" as Bob Dole.

In fact, the chief complaint during that campaign-if I'm not mistaken-was that he was an Asian version of Bob Dole.

Look, people can gin up all the implausible political scenarios they want, but California has-unfortunately-turned into a blue-and worsening-abyss.

The public employee unions control everything-as was demonstrated during the most recent special election-and there is no way that any voter registration campaign is going to cancel out the votes of the millions, upon millions of newly enfranchised Mexican nationals that stream into that state every year.

29 posted on 02/06/2006 1:35:43 PM PST by Do not dub me shapka broham ("Liberals aren't neighborhood people." -Daniel Patrick Moynihan)
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To: traviskicks

Big difference between a libertarian and Arnold. Arnold's a gun-grabber, for starters.


30 posted on 02/06/2006 1:35:54 PM PST by RockinRight (Attention RNC...we're the party of Reagan, not FDR...)
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To: SierraWasp

Outside of New England, there aren't any Blue States, just Blue Blue Cities (doomed to sing the blues every national election for the foreseeable future) with enough population to outvote the Red Countryside.

(Gee, it's fun having that color back from the Commies.)


31 posted on 02/06/2006 1:36:37 PM PST by The_Reader_David (And when they behead your own people in the wars which are to come, then you will know. . .)
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To: The_Reader_David

It's infuriating to see a few corrupt socialist enclaves, e.g. Milwaukee, Seattle, Baltimore, Philadelphia, etc., negate the popular will of rest of their state.


32 posted on 02/06/2006 1:40:40 PM PST by Do not dub me shapka broham ("Liberals aren't neighborhood people." -Daniel Patrick Moynihan)
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To: SierraWasp

Gives support to the theory that if the moribund CAGOP (and RNC) can ever bring themselves to get behind a real RWR kind of conservative, we can win. In California, and nationally as well.


33 posted on 02/06/2006 1:48:34 PM PST by Czar (StillFedUptotheTeeth@Washington)
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To: SierraWasp

Given the fact that ANYONE can register to vote here in California (you only need to check a box declaring under penalty of perjury that you are eligible), I would not be surprised at all if there were in fact already a republican majority here once the illegal votes were disqualified. Of course the democratic run state government has no interest in investigating or correcting the problem since it suits their needs.

JSL


34 posted on 02/06/2006 1:56:56 PM PST by free_at_jsl.com
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To: TheZMan
the faster-growing inland counties - dubbed "Edge Cities" by some - and rural areas have become more Republican.

Along this line, see my FReep page for a great quote made by none other than The Rushmeister about our area - when he was just out for the Bob Hope Chrysler Golf thingie...

35 posted on 02/06/2006 1:58:15 PM PST by ErnBatavia (Meep Meep)
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To: The Dude Abides
Rosario Marin would have beat the socks off Barbar Boxer.

I really doubt that. Boxer's got the safest seat in the Senate which explains why she can get away with being such a vile bitch in her 'appointment' as chief 'Rat attack dog.

36 posted on 02/06/2006 2:00:25 PM PST by ErnBatavia (Meep Meep)
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To: The_Reader_David
Outside of New England, there aren't any Blue States, just Blue Blue Cities (doomed to sing the blues every national election for the foreseeable future) with enough population to outvote the Red Countryside.

How true. You won't see any faded Kerry bumpers stickers in rural California.

37 posted on 02/06/2006 2:01:40 PM PST by Inyo-Mono (Life is like a cow pasture, it's hard to get through without stepping in some mess. NRA.)
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To: SierraWasp
Back then in California, a fair share of registered Dems voted Pubbbie, and the GOP almost always ran better than its registration numbers. None of that is true anymore, and the independents lean Dem.
38 posted on 02/06/2006 2:05:50 PM PST by Torie
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To: Inyo-Mono
You won't see any faded Kerry bumpers stickers in rural California.

My brother still has one. He lives in Bishop.

39 posted on 02/06/2006 2:06:40 PM PST by Torie
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To: Torie

NO!!!


40 posted on 02/06/2006 2:14:29 PM PST by Inyo-Mono (Life is like a cow pasture, it's hard to get through without stepping in some mess. NRA.)
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