Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part V

NHC - NOAA ^ | 22 September 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Extremely dangerous Category Four Hurricane Rita continues to move toward landfall along the northwest Gulf of Mexico shoreline. Mandatory and voluntary evacuations continue across Texas and Louisiana coastal areas. Lake Charles LA is providing evacuations by bus for residents who have no transportation.

Traffic gridlock in the greater Houston area was compounded by gasoline stations without fuel, long lines at those stations still carrying fuel, and record breaking temperatures on the first day of autumn.

Offshore drilling platforms and rigs, as well as oil refineries, petrochemical and natural gas plants are in the path of the storm. Wave heights recorded by buoy have exceeded 38 feet. The refineries threatened by Hurricane Rita are on higher ground than those affected by flooding from Katrina. As a result, speculation abounds regarding future prices for winter heating fuel and gasoline.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track

Rita Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data Western Gulf of Mexico
Houston/Galveston/Beaumont/Lake Charles Wx Watches/Warnings
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Texas
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Louisiana
Hi Res Houston Flood Zone Map Slow load, great detail

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
GOM WV Loop
GOM IR Still Image
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop

Streaming Video: (coverage may be intermittent)

KPRC-TV/DT Houston - KPRC-TV/DT Houston - http://mfile.akamai.com/12944/live/reflector:38616.asx
KPLC-TV Lake Charles KPLC Streaming
KHOU-TV/DT Houston: mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_khou
WWLTV NOLA

Additional Resources:

FReeper Sign In Thread Check in to let us know whether you are staying, going, and when you get there
FReepers Offering Lodging To Rita Evacuees People and/or Pet Friendly FReepers Offering Shelter
Coastal TX Evacuation Maps
Beaumont TX evac Routes
Lake Charles/Southwest LA Evacuation Map
KHOU Houston
KTRK ABC News Houston
KPLC Lake Charles Evac Routes, news
KFDM Beaumont/Port Arthur News, evac info
Hurricane City
Wxnation Houston
Galveston Webcams
Golden Triangle Weather Page Provides Galveston Weather, Warnings, Radar, etc.

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

Previous Threads:
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part IV
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part III
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part II
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm Rita
Tropical Depression 18

[commish]

NEW IBERIA LA     15  6  1  1 23   GULF 28N 95W      19  3  1  X 23
PORT ARTHUR TX    17 11  1  X 29   GULF 27N 96W       4  4  2  2 12
GALVESTON TX      20  7  1  1 29   GULF 25N 96W       X  X  1  2 

OK, I don't get this. The advisory calls for the NW turn and states Tx/LA line, but the probability shows higher for Galveston than it does for Port Arthur and New Iberia.

NHC! Which is it? Galveston or Port Arthur?

[Zacs Mom]

“Aaron Brown running down the TX folks for not having fuel prepositioned for these poor folks trying to evac.”

Buut we DO have "fuel prepositioned for these poor folks trying to evac." - they are called gas stations.

[CedarDave]

Koppell should have learned his lesson with Dean Reynolds at the Astrodome when he couldn't find a single person to bash/blame Bush.

[jeffers]

Back towards Port Arthur, but not all the way back.

Here's the 1700 projected track:

http://i4.photobucket.com/albums/y138/jeffers_mz/02J.jpg

Four of the recent positions fall between the 1700 and 1700 + 12 positions noted there, all within the expected curvature radius.

Plotted separately, the last four intermediate positions show a slight wobble to the left and back again, to 3 miles short of the 1700 track, shown. Note that the graphic uses linear interpolation between the projected positions.

In short, all looks good for a Houston/Galveston near miss to the north, but its very very close.

Fingers crossed.

[anton]

Naw, the first colums are individual probablities within time slots, the last is cumulative.

[4mer Liberal]

I think I saw a Booger Holler, Arkansas once.

[NCjim]

Eel is good smoked, too. Gives it a nutty taste.

[Rte66]

I wondered about that "straight shot expressway to Seguin," too. One lady said "but I was just going to Columbus" -- and they wouldn't let her off!

[toomanygrasshoppers]

I'm quite familiar with Daingerfield. It's been dry all over NE Texas. You are right...all that will change here real soon.

[floriduh voter]

You saw her? I mean I like the beach too but I'm not trying for a Darwin Award.

[Spktyr]

Texas is doing what the media was decrying as "impossible" a couple of years ago - evacuating not one, but two good-sized cities and the surrounding areas. Remember when the MSM was saying that nobody could ever evacuate an American city after emergency plans were being drawn up after 9/11?

What the MSM is deathly afraid of is that Texas will successfully execute this evacuation and prove them and their friends in LA completely incompetent. The LA leadership has been given a pass by the MSM because of the MSM's prior declarations that "evacuation is impossible".

As for Texans, we've been ignoring the MSM since 1835-6 when they told us we were insane to tell Mexico what they could go do with themselves and gave them their cannon back projectiles first.

We just smile, say "uh-huh" to the reporter types, and go back to doing the job at hand. God, I love this state.

[Hilltop]

Chuckle, your attempt at being coy makes me laugh my ass off.

If you don't know what fenders are, then google, if you are testing me, then send me an e mail.

[Strategerist]

The forecast landfall is not at the LA/TX line, it's halfway between Trinity Bay and the LA/TX Line.

[Zacs Mom]

No kidding - the term SOS may well replace MSM in the future

[anton]

What I think is remarkable is that NO is only half as likely as Port Arthur.

[steveegg]

That's to be within 65 nm of that spot at a certain point. Galveston is closer than Port Arthur, and the cone is tighter at that point.

[LuLuLuLu]

My youngest was born 12-10-76. We had the blizzard.

I'd love to stay, but I'm exhausted by Rita. And I'm in Ohio.

Goodspeed to all of you.

[AFPhys]

I know MSNBC has terrible news coverage, however, I didn't realize how lousy their weather expertise is, too.

I believe Txsleuth just discovered another reason for their ratings (lack of).

[NautiNurse]

Perhaps the roads will be less crowded in the wee hours.

[Spktyr]

Yeah, it's now contraflowed all the way from Houston to Ennis.