Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part V

NHC - NOAA ^ | 22 September 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Extremely dangerous Category Four Hurricane Rita continues to move toward landfall along the northwest Gulf of Mexico shoreline. Mandatory and voluntary evacuations continue across Texas and Louisiana coastal areas. Lake Charles LA is providing evacuations by bus for residents who have no transportation.

Traffic gridlock in the greater Houston area was compounded by gasoline stations without fuel, long lines at those stations still carrying fuel, and record breaking temperatures on the first day of autumn.

Offshore drilling platforms and rigs, as well as oil refineries, petrochemical and natural gas plants are in the path of the storm. Wave heights recorded by buoy have exceeded 38 feet. The refineries threatened by Hurricane Rita are on higher ground than those affected by flooding from Katrina. As a result, speculation abounds regarding future prices for winter heating fuel and gasoline.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track

Rita Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data Western Gulf of Mexico
Houston/Galveston/Beaumont/Lake Charles Wx Watches/Warnings
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Texas
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Louisiana
Hi Res Houston Flood Zone Map Slow load, great detail

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
GOM WV Loop
GOM IR Still Image
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop

Streaming Video: (coverage may be intermittent)

KPRC-TV/DT Houston - KPRC-TV/DT Houston - http://mfile.akamai.com/12944/live/reflector:38616.asx
KPLC-TV Lake Charles KPLC Streaming
KHOU-TV/DT Houston: mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_khou
WWLTV NOLA

Additional Resources:

FReeper Sign In Thread Check in to let us know whether you are staying, going, and when you get there
FReepers Offering Lodging To Rita Evacuees People and/or Pet Friendly FReepers Offering Shelter
Coastal TX Evacuation Maps
Beaumont TX evac Routes
Lake Charles/Southwest LA Evacuation Map
KHOU Houston
KTRK ABC News Houston
KPLC Lake Charles Evac Routes, news
KFDM Beaumont/Port Arthur News, evac info
Hurricane City
Wxnation Houston
Galveston Webcams
Golden Triangle Weather Page Provides Galveston Weather, Warnings, Radar, etc.

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

Previous Threads:
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part IV
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part III
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part II
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm Rita
Tropical Depression 18

[nascaryankee]

Keep those rants coming. So many agree with you.

Reporters talk the talk but never walk the walk.

[Spktyr]

We also have "Gunbarrel City".

Guess what they make there.

[Centurion2000]

I think the British win the prize for exotic names - bangers and mash, toad in the hole, to name a couple

Don't forget black pudding (blood) and spotted dick.

[tx_eggman]

Ever heard of Dime Box?

My personal favorite is North Zulch

[Zacs Mom]

they are saying the number of evacuees is now closer to 2.5 million counting all the surrounding areas that had to go too.

[the Deejay]

remember it as the Great Blizzard of '77

OMG! I'll never forget the winter of '77!!!

The wind!! oh my....

And you had a tiny baby!! OH MY GOSH!! My youngest was 6 yrs. old and had two older ones. And hubby was w/us. You really must have been under stress.

[Rte66]

Hmm, OK - don't know Schroeder.

[Txsleuth]

THAT is what the weather guy on Scarborough's show said...

right after I had switched from Hannity and Colmes, where Joe Bastardi was saying it would hit between Galveston and High Island between 3-6:00 AM on Saturday...

and hear straight up I-45....and that when it gets to North Texas would stall for about 3 days....

All I know is....I don't want anything BAD to happen, but I WANT SOME RAIN!!! (UH-OH...you know what they say about getting what you wished for....I may REALLY regret this post)

[PhiKapMom]

All the way to Seguin is one way? Unbelieveable -- that's a long way from Houston.

[CedarDave]

That's I-10 east of Houston. The I-10 west (Katy Freeway) is still clogged on the outbound, unless you get in the HOV lane which feeds the contra flow. And US 290 is not contra-flowed.

[steveegg]

Strike Probabilities #22 - Galveston and Port Arthur are right in the bulls-eye, with Galveston leading the pre-7 pm Friday probability and Port Arthur leading the 7 pm Friday-7 pm Saturday one

WTNT73 KNHC 230248                 
SPFAT3                             
HURRICANE RITA PROBABILITIES NUMBER  22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2005          
                                   
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
                                   
AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE  90.3 WEST
                                   
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  7PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2005
                                   
LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E
                                   
28.4N  93.0W      41  X  X  X 41   FREEPORT TX       15  9  1  X 25
29.8N  94.2W      19 10  X  1 30   PORT O CONNOR TX   6  8  2  2 18
31.1N  94.7W       4 18  2  1 25   CORPUSCHRISTI TX   1  4  2  3 10
PENSACOLA FL       X  X  X  3  3   BROWNSVILLE TX     X  X  1  2  3
MOBILE AL          X  1  1  4  6   GULF 29N 87W       X  X  1  2  3
GULFPORT MS        1  2  2  4  9   GULF 28N 89W       8  2  X  1 11
BURAS LA           5  4  2  1 12   GULF 28N 91W      46  X  X  X 46
NEW ORLEANS LA     5  6  2  2 15   GULF 28N 93W      44  X  X  X 44
NEW IBERIA LA     15  6  1  1 23   GULF 28N 95W      19  3  1  X 23
PORT ARTHUR TX    17 11  1  X 29   GULF 27N 96W       4  4  2  2 12
GALVESTON TX      20  7  1  1 29   GULF 25N 96W       X  X  1  2  3
                                   
COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  7PM FRI
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  7PM FRI TO  7AM SAT        
C FROM  7AM SAT TO  7PM SAT        
D FROM  7PM SAT TO  7PM SUN        
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  7PM SUN
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT      
                                   
FORECASTER KNABB                   
                                   
                                   
$$

[uncbob]

The MSM gets it both ways as usual. They can stir the passions of the PREVIOUS victims by stating such nonsense as "BUSH learned his lesson" or "This is Texas, so HE CARES more".

They are like that on all issues including sports

They will complain a manager says nothing and then when he does they say he is causing dicension

[maeng]

Or screaming at Perry for evacuation of people, keeping them out of work, school, etc. for no reason since the hurricane went north!!!

[Sender]

You can wash practically any offal sandwich down with a lukewarm Guinness!

[Veto!]

I saw her too. She's as brave/foolhardy/fatalistic as old Harry Truman (!) who refused to evacuate his cabin on Mt. Saint Helens before the volcano blew. He was never seen or heard of again.

[VirginiaMom]

Yeah, the truly sad thing is that alot of people believe all that is reported....they never doubt what comes out of their tv sets. It makes me sick.

[SouthTexas]

The left has said for weeks (years?) that any Bush states would automatically get grade A service even as Democratic (poor?) states drown.

Ain't it just lovely to live in a RED STATE?

[VRWCTexan]

There is also "Old" Dime Box - and my personal fav is "Mule Shoe"

[bwteim]

[commish]

Winds are down another 5 mph, but it's still a Cat 4, and hurricane-force winds extend out another 20 miles than they did the last advisory.

Today has been a lesson in classic Eyewall Replacement Cycles. Winds are down some, but the wind field is enlarged.

I shudder to think what Rita might do once the eye clears out. NHC are the experts, but I do not see continued weakening. Everything is in place. ERC ending, Warm eddy, diurnal maximum, no shear. I don't see how she does not strengthen again later tonight.

A agree she will be a CAT 4 at landfall, but I thnk she rebounds over night first.