WTNT73 KNHC 230248
SPFAT3
HURRICANE RITA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2005
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.3 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 7PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2005
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
28.4N 93.0W 41 X X X 41 FREEPORT TX 15 9 1 X 25
29.8N 94.2W 19 10 X 1 30 PORT O CONNOR TX 6 8 2 2 18
31.1N 94.7W 4 18 2 1 25 CORPUSCHRISTI TX 1 4 2 3 10
PENSACOLA FL X X X 3 3 BROWNSVILLE TX X X 1 2 3
MOBILE AL X 1 1 4 6 GULF 29N 87W X X 1 2 3
GULFPORT MS 1 2 2 4 9 GULF 28N 89W 8 2 X 1 11
BURAS LA 5 4 2 1 12 GULF 28N 91W 46 X X X 46
NEW ORLEANS LA 5 6 2 2 15 GULF 28N 93W 44 X X X 44
NEW IBERIA LA 15 6 1 1 23 GULF 28N 95W 19 3 1 X 23
PORT ARTHUR TX 17 11 1 X 29 GULF 27N 96W 4 4 2 2 12
GALVESTON TX 20 7 1 1 29 GULF 25N 96W X X 1 2 3
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7PM FRI
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 7PM FRI TO 7AM SAT
C FROM 7AM SAT TO 7PM SAT
D FROM 7PM SAT TO 7PM SUN
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7PM SUN
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER KNABB
$$Wow! They have the highest probability being Galveston again.
NEW IBERIA LA 15 6 1 1 23 GULF 28N 95W 19 3 1 X 23 PORT ARTHUR TX 17 11 1 X 29 GULF 27N 96W 4 4 2 2 12 GALVESTON TX 20 7 1 1 29 GULF 25N 96W X X 1 2
OK, I don't get this. The advisory calls for the NW turn and states Tx/LA line, but the probability shows higher for Galveston than it does for Port Arthur and New Iberia.
NHC! Which is it? Galveston or Port Arthur?
PORT ARTHUR TX 17 11 1 X 29
GALVESTON TX 20 7 1 1 29
As I pointed out before, the "1" in the C and D columns are clearly incorrect. They MUST be meant to be 100.
It is hard to be sure about some of the other locations listed.